Erratic September Month-end flows – Market wrap for the North American session - September 30

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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 30

Today continue yesterday's geopolitical narratives with the US Government shutdown odds increasing (it seems that democrats wouldn't want to sign an extension) and Arab nations pushing for Hamas to accept the Gaza deal.

About the first theme, a movement is happening with the Trump administration to remove a huge number of federal workers in an attempt to reduce costs and bureaucratic inefficiencies – There is a breach in the Government budget.

The one issue is that it would be the people whose jobs are on the line that are required to prevent a shutdown. There are some intricacies to this theme but overall, markets should be more concerned about a delayed NFP release and Jobless claims, with the Labor Statistics office affected.

This dragged the USD lower for a second straight day, however, FX movements are still far from clear and decisive – It will be very interesting to see how markets will interpret a delay of such quintessential releases.

Not too good for the US reputation in any case.

Some other, more positive developments are happening in the Middle East however, with a long-list of nations pressing for the signature of the peace proposal which would be a great advance in the region.

This would give back some credibility to the US and potentially countering the negative effects of a shutdown.

In any case, month-end flows came and they were pretty erratic – Between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, equities rallied but got rejected harshly right before the close.

The S&P 500 attained the 6,700 but couldn't close above while the Nasdaq and Dow were more muted.

Gold is finishing the month at its highs.

What a rally in the precious metal +11.20% on the month, posting its best performance since August 2011 amid all the concerns for the US dollar and much else.

Read More:

• Japanese yen could be one of the best performers for the end of the year
• Taking a step back – key long-term market charts and levels
• Silver (XAG/USD): Minor mean reversion decline in progress below US$47.17

Cross-Assets Daily Performance

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 30, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Typical of a volatile month close, markets were in disarray throughout the session.

Look at how many times all assets went from positive to negative and vice versa.

The performances to keep your eyes on are those of cryptocurrencies, posting a strong end-session reversal and of course Gold, that demarcated from other metals in today's dominant move.

Next month will be a rollercoaster. Get ready!

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

Currency Performance, September 30 – Source: OANDA Labs

APAC currency performance was strong for this month-end, with the AUD on top from its hawkish pause, and a Japanese Yen that is starting to assemble some decent momentum in the past few session.

These moves came at the cost of North American currencies: Geographic trend in FX again in play, so of course the Loonie got dragged by the US Dollar selloff.

The extent of the moves has still been fairly contained but more is to come.

A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

Tomorrow's session should be at least as busy as today. Don't forget the month-beginning flows which could add to the volatility.

After the RBA fireworks (aka a huge hawkish pause at 3.60%), traders shift focus to the US labor market.

The ADP Employment Change (08:15 ET) is front and center, with expectations of +50K jobs after +54K previously.

The US calendar then ramps up at 10:00 ET with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (49 expected vs 48.7 prior), alongside employment and new orders indexes — all critical for gauging momentum in the industrial sector.

From Europe, the morning is packed with many ECB speakers and the Eurozone CPI flash estimates (Sep) at 05:00 ET, where consensus looks for 2.2% YoY headline and 2.3% core, steady from last month.

In Canada, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 09:30 ET and the BoC’s deliberation summary (13:30 ET) could move CAD, especially with the latest weakness in the Loonie.

The Asia-Pacific session closes with Australia’s August trade balance (21:30 ET), expected to narrow sharply to 6.5B from 7.31B.

Safe Trades!

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