EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the EUR/JPY pair attracts new sellers after rising in the Asian session to nearly the round level of 174.00, and is now breaking through 173.00, extending the decline from the psychological 175.00 level — the highest since July 2024, which was retested last week. The Japanese yen maintains its momentum under the influence of aggressive expectations regarding Bank of Japan monetary policy, which remains a key driver for EUR/JPY. At Tuesday's September BoJ conference, board members discussed the likelihood of a rate hike at upcoming meetings, confirming expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in October.

In addition, the yen gained support amid heightened geopolitical tensions and the U.S. government shutdown, reinforcing its safe-haven status. At the same time, the euro is receiving some support from U.S. dollar weakness, which acts as a favorable factor for the EUR/JPY pair. Traders remain cautious, avoiding active positioning ahead of eurozone CPI data.

These key economic indicators could clarify the European Central Bank's (ECB) next steps, which play an important role in guiding the euro and influencing EUR/JPY dynamics. However, the Bank of Japan's hawkish stance stands in sharp contrast to the approaches of other major central banks, including the ECB, which continues to drive investment into lower-yielding assets and supports the EUR/JPY decline.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index has moved into negative territory, confirming the bearish outlook. Prices have also fallen below the 173.00 round level, finding support at the 50-day SMA. Therefore, any rebound is likely to be viewed as an opportunity for new selling.

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