US Equities face uncertainty as US Government Shutdown begins – S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones outlook

[Redator]

The US government shutdown officially took effect at midnight, immediately clouding the economic calendar with uncertainty. You can track the latest headlines on the shutdown right here.

Key releases, including the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls and weekly Jobless Claims, are set to be delayed — leaving markets grasping for alternative signals on the labor picture.

That made today’s ADP private employment report all the more critical, and it disappointed: a sharp miss at –32K versus +52K expected, coupled with yet another downward revision for August (-3K vs +54K announced).

This should at least keep rate cuts hope high with a 25 bps cut still 99% priced in.

On the manufacturing front, the 10:00 A.M. ISM Manufacturing PMI ticked higher to 49.1 from 48.7, but the improvement was largely driven by a steep rise in Prices Paid, hinting at lingering cost pressures from tariffs rather than genuine expansion.

For now, investors appear to be treating the shutdown as a temporary hurdle with stocks rallying strongly, but the risk of extended delays — especially as layoffs become a growing concern — could weigh more heavily if the stalemate drags on.

You can also access an interest take on the shutdown here.

North American Data releases from this morning, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

Daily US Equity Heat Map – October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The picture is mostly red, except for the Health sector seeing strong rebalancing after a downbeat performance the past weeks.

A Daily outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones before taking a closer look

Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Despite the not-too-enthusiastic session, the main US indices are holding their relative highs and rallied back from a selloff at the open.

European equities (Eurostoxx) on the other hand are enjoying the US turmoil and closing at new record highs.

Read More:

• Crypto demand spikes as US Government shutdown looms and data delays hit markets
• Markets Today: Euro Area Inflation Ticks Up, Gold Eyes $3900/oz, DAX Breaches Confluence Level & US Government Shutdown in Focus
• Japanese yen could be one of the best performers for the end of the year

Let's take a look at intraday charts and levels for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones.

Technical outlook and levels for the 3 Main US Indices

S&P 500 4H chart and levels

S&P 500 4H Chart , October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

US equities are getting a strong boost from the cut odds that keep getting confirmed in an ongoing strong move: 6,700 just got reached as I am writing this.

Recent All-time highs for the S&P 500 could be getting tested very soon – watch the 6,710 for a potential break higher.

Bears could look at a break of the 6,664 lows from overnight futures trading.

It isn't surprising to see Stocks rallying on bad news, but still pretty impressive flows!

S&P 500 Trading Levels:

Resistance Levels

• 6,710 (new All Time-Highs)
• 6,700 psychological level
• potential resistance 1 (1.382 fib 6,745 to 6,760)
• potential resistance 2 (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)

Support Levels

• 6,570 to 6,600 Key Pivot and channel lows (recent rebound 6,586)
• 6,490 to 6,512 support
• 6,400 Main Support
• 6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)

Nasdaq 4H chart and levels

Nasdaq 4H Chart , October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Same as the S&P 500, the Nasdaq is reaching higher levels in a hurry in the latest bull flows, also holding its upward channel.

Markets really don't seem too scared from the shutdown, looking more at the upcoming FED cuts.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest

Resistance Levels

• current ATH 24,824
• ATH Resitance fib-Extension (from August lows) around 24,800
• potential resistance 1around 25,000 (fib extension)
• 1.618 potential resistance around 25,300 (high of channel)

Support Levels

• Fib-projection now Momentum pivot 24,350
• August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)
• 23,500 support
• 23,000 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

Dow Jones 4H chart and levels

Dow Jones 4H Chart , October 1, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The Dow is still evolving within its ascending wedge after a failed breakout attempt, but its ongoing buying momentum is huge.

Keep an eye on the price action as prices are entering All-time high resistances for all three major US indices.

Levels for Dow Jones trading:

Resistance Levels

• 1.618 from April correction potential resistance 46,400 to 46,830
• Current ATH 46,794
• High of channel and 1.618% Fib of July move 47,000 to 47,160 (potential resistance)

Support Levels

• 46,000 Momentum Pivot and 50-period MA (45,807)
• 45,283 previous significant ATH
• Key Support/longer-run pivot 45,000
• Support 44,200 to 44,500
• Main Support (NFP Lows) 43,000 to 43,750

Safe Trades!

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