NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the NZD/USD pair is attracting new buyers. The U.S. dollar attempted to extend its rebound from the weekly low reached the day before, which became the main factor limiting the pair's upside. However, the rebound attempt was unsuccessful. In addition, growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) are restraining traders from actively buying the New Zealand dollar. In this context, it is worth exercising caution before relying on a continued recovery of the pair, which began from the 0.5750 level — the September low, also seen back in April.That said, significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar now seems unlikely due to forecasts of two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. Additional pressure comes from the prospect of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which could negatively affect economic performance and limit dollar growth. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned of potentially serious consequences of the shutdown for GDP, economic growth, and the labor market.

Meanwhile, prevailing risk appetite and optimism in global equity markets reduce the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven currency in the Pacific region, which supports the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar. As a result, the NZD/USD pair is showing growth potential for the first time in three weeks, though the unstable fundamental backdrop still leaves room for caution in expecting further upward movement.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain negative, and the pair has not yet broken through resistance at the 200-day SMA, currently located at 0.5845. This suggests that a sustained global uptrend is not yet possible.

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