Precious metals break new records to close the week – Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) outlook

[Redator]

Metals are loving everything about this year’s trading, with most of them posting their best yearly performances since the early 2010s.

A combination of drivers continues to fuel the rally: a weaker US Dollar weighed down by the Trump administration’s tariffs and tense international relations, alongside FED cuts and questions over the central bank’s independence.

Add to that the ballooning government debt and an expanding money supply, and the stage is set for commodities — particularly metals — to keep outperforming.

Dollar Index and Metals comparative Performance in 2025 – October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The latest US Government shutdown, has only piled further pressure on fiat confidence (particularly the dollar against which all metals are priced) and given another leg higher to an already powerful move.

Silver is now trading above the January 1980 highs and sits barely $1.50 away from its all-time peak set in April 2011, back when the first round of Quantitative Easing reshaped the post-crisis market landscape. Gold, too, keeps stretching to uncharted levels.

And with no real catalysts pressing metals lower — even strong GDP data that delayed 2026 cut expectations failed to dent momentum — the bias remains firmly upward.

We’ll turn to some key charts (short-term and long-term) to see just how extended this run might get for both Silver and Gold.

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The current Gold picture

Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart

Gold (XAUUSD) Daily Chart, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Trying to predict where this ongoing rally can stop is suicide, particularly as global central banks and Market participants rush to get some gold.

Many assets could look inflated, but with Money Supply almost tripling since 2008, de-globalization and global conflicts, the Gold rally makes sense.

The progress had been relatively consistent throughout this cycle, but the acceleration of prices since FED's Powell Jackson Hole speech has revamped the rally to a new speed.

One key observation to make is how important the psychological levels are for Gold, with the metal initially stopping at $3,500 before consolidation, and then seeing session highs right around flat numbers (like the current highs at $3,895).

Gold (XAUUSD) 4H Chart and levels

Gold (XAUUSD) 4H Chart, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Gold is up 17% in just a bit more than three months, with the current move showing a tight bull channel.

Momentum seems to be stalling a bit, but before real sellers enter the market, fading such a squeeze can be painful.

Look at the 4H RSI really falling below the neutral line and prices moving below the 50-period MA ($3,820) before assuming any fall.

For bulls, look at a breakout above the session highs which would get confirmed above $3,905.

Watch for a potential measured-move which may stall movement a bit around $3,950.

Levels of interest for Gold trading:

Support:

• Micro support $3,620 to $3,630
• Previous ATH and now long-term Pivot around $3,500 (+/- $15)
• Previous Range Highs $3,400 to $3,450 (minor support)
• $3,300 Major Support
• $3,000 Main psychological level

Resistance and potential technical targets (due to all-time highs, can only use potential targets):

• Current Highs resistance at 2015-2020 Fib-Extension $3,800 to $3,900
• All-time highs Highs $3,897
• Fibonacci-Extension 1 from 2018 lows and measured-move ($3,950)
• Potential, Fibonacci-Extension 2 $4,100 (still far)

Now, let's take a look at Silver which is on pace to break new records

Silver historic chart – Taking a look at its price movement since the 1970s

Silver (XAG/USD) 3M Chart – From 1970 to today, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Silver has been in the middle of three huge prices spikes:

• 1980, with a $48 record (US Stagflation that marked the end of the Long Boom)
• 2011, with the currently stanbding $49.81 all-time highs
• The current cycle, with the daily highs at $48.31

The preceding spikes were much more rapid: Looking closer, they got accentuated by gaps and lack of liquidity.

Liquidity is never at its optimum when suppliers compete to rise the price of their niche product.

But this year's rise seems more related to extremely elevated money supply and governmental debt rather than a lack of supply.

A story to monitor for following years.

It is essential to keep an eye on the upcoming price action as prices try to breach the 2011 record.

Silver (XAGUSD) 4H Chart and levels

Silver (XAGUSD) 4H Chart, September 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView

A profit-taking move yesterday attempted to retrace prices, but momentum came right back with the ongoing rally (short-timeframe).

The daily session marks a 3% performance and the metal is now entering the $2 long All-time high resistance.

If sellers fail here, there won't be much to retain prices from reaching the $50 mark.

For higher levels from here, look around $52 and $55 but price discovery and positioning should guide flows more.

Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:

Resistance Levels:

• $48 1980 highs (broken!)
• $48 to $49 All-time High resistance
• $50 psychological level
• $52 to $55 price discovery

Support Levels:

• $46.45 April 2011 pivot
• $43 to $44 higher timeframe pivot/support
• $38.75 to $39 Key levels
• 2012 Highs Support around 37.50

Safe Trades!

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