No NFP and Hamas accepts the deal, but... – Market wrap for the North American session - October 3

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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 3rd

Today marked the continuation of the US Government shutdown, with the Senate rejecting a Democrat attempt to end it.

It seems that the two parties are not agreeing to the financing terms and will require more than a few days of negotiation.

The Trump administration had expected the shutdown which, would help the President to reduce drastically the number of federal workers, at least according to his Truth Social Post.

Length of the different US Government shutdowns – Source: TradingView

The direct consequence for Markets is, once again, higher uncertainty.

Participants are scrambling for data to get an idea of where to head next, with the private surveys such as the PMIs or Wednesday's ADP taking the lead.

However, it doesn't seem sufficient enough for bulls, which initially appreciated the miss on the Services PMI data before taking profits in the afternoon, leading to the Dow rejecting the 47,000 level and the S&P closing in the red.

In geopolitics, Hamas accepted a part of the deal which would allow the hostages to be released.

However, the terrorist movement only accepted one part of the deal and made no mentions of their disarmament or their exit from the Gaza Strip to relaunch a peaceful process for the years to come.

Without Hamas leaving the Strip, the deal has high chances to be compromised and might not materialize. More on this as headlines go by.

Read More:

• Precious metals break new records to close the week – Gold (XAU) and Silver (XAG) outlook
• Markets Weekly Outlook - Navigating the US Shutdown & Global Trends as Equity Markets Continue to Soar
• Cryptocurrencies are loving the rally in Bitcoin – Crypto outlook

Cross-Assets Daily Performance

Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Asset volatility was extremely high today with uncertainty starting to hit markets.

Both the US Dollar and Oil conclude their worst week since early August and Equity markets are sending mixed signs throughout the globe – Uncertainty is volatility's best friend.

Cryptocurrencies however stand on top of these flows, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum rising around 2% in the past 24 hours.

Since our morning crypto piece, most altcoins have turned positive with moves in altcoins such as APT and BNB surpassing the 5% mark.

Metals were also on a strong run, with Silver, Platinum, Palladium and Copper all up above 3% at their session peak, but have seen some profit-taking since.

A picture of today's performance for major currencies

Currency Performance, October 3 – Source: OANDA Labs

The yen did not appreciate Bank of Japan Ueda's dovish comments which balanced recent hawkishness expressed by the several BoJ speakers in the past two weeks.

(Check out latest JPY analysis!)

For the rest, FX movement was muted again amid all the uncertainty and lack of data.

The greenback still finishes second-to-last and European currencies enjoyed from it.

Both the AUD and NZD are, on the other hand, the winners of this week's action with the Chinese stimulus coming in at the antipodeans' favors.

A look at Economic data releasing through this weekend and Monday's sessions

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

The political spotlight this weekend is on Japan, where the LDP Presidential Election (Friday, Oct 3) continues to ripple through markets. Polls show a tight race between Kōzō Izumi and Sanae Takaichi, a contest that could shape Japan’s fiscal stance, defense policy, and BoJ-government dynamics.

JPY traders will be watching closely for outcomes and any coalition maneuvering.

Also, keep an eye on the Israel-Hamas headlines.

In Europe, a trio of ECB speeches kicks off the week, with De Guindos (03:15 ET), Lane (04:00 ET), and Lagarde (13:00 ET) all on deck. Markets will parse for guidance after sticky September inflation.

At 04:30 ET, the Sentix Investor Confidence (Oct) is expected to rebound slightly from -9.2, while at 05:00 ET, Eurozone retail sales are seen flat at +0.1% MoM, still weak on a yearly basis (-2.2% YoY).

Sterling gets a highlight at 13:30 ET with BoE Governor Bailey’s speech, his first remarks since the dovish shift at the last MPC.

The APAC session rounds out with business and consumer sentiment data: NZ Business Confidence (Q3) at 17:00 ET, UK BRC retail sales (Sep) at 19:01 ET, and Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence (Oct) at 19:30 ET.

Safe Trades!

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