The Euro May Resume Its Decline in the Coming Days

[Redator]

A recent interview with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde points to a rather wait-and-see stance from the regulator, which lately has not been much help to the euro's growth. Lagarde stated that she is satisfied with the current policy parameters, as inflation in the eurozone overall remains stable. "We are in a good position, and we need things to stay that way," she said in the interview.

In her view, this outcome is the result of coordinated actions by the European Central Bank, member state governments, and structural reforms aimed at strengthening competitiveness and improving economic productivity. Above all, price stability allows the central bank to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary stance without resorting to sharp changes in rates, which in turn supports investment growth and consumer demand.

However, Lagarde stressed that "stability" does not mean the absence of risks. She drew attention to potential pressures from energy markets, changes in the global trade landscape, and possible geopolitical shocks that could trigger a surge in price expectations. In this regard, she called for stronger monitoring of inflation indicators and for maintaining a flexible communication strategy capable of quickly responding to any deviations from the target level.

Although policymakers cut interest rates eight times during the year, economists now forecast that rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2025. Inflation has stabilized at the ECB's target of 2%, although it did edge slightly higher last month. "We do not expect significant fluctuations in inflation," Lagarde said. "We must do whatever is necessary to fulfill our mandate."

Speaking about the economy, Lagarde noted that some eurozone countries suffered more and are recovering more slowly. "Nevertheless, I would say that the eurozone as a whole has shown greater resilience than expected," she added.

This assessment is supported by data showing that, despite uneven growth rates, the region's overall GDP figures are fairly solid. In particular, countries with greater fiscal flexibility were able to adapt budgetary tools more quickly to new market realities, while more vulnerable economies continue to struggle with the lingering effects of the energy crisis and structural imbalances. Lagarde emphasized that a key factor in resilience is the consistency between central bank and national government policies. Coordinated lending programs aimed at supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, combined with reforms in market competition, are contributing not only to employment stabilization but also to productivity growth. "We have the tools, we have the capacity, and we have the will," said Lagarde.

Christine Lagarde dismissed suggestions that she might have ambitions to become the next President of France. "I think it's a terrible job, and I believe you have to be programmed in some way for it, but I don't think that's my case," she said.

It is worth recalling that Lagarde's non-renewable eight-year term ends in October 2027. Emmanuel Macron's term as President of France ends in the same year, albeit several months earlier. "That doesn't mean I don't want to serve my country, it doesn't mean I don't want to serve Europe, it doesn't mean I'll be selfish the day I resign, but I think it's an exhausting job, and you have to be a little crazy to want to do it," she added.

Current Technical Picture for EUR/USD At the moment, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1745 level. Only then will there be a chance to test 1.1790. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1820, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The ultimate upward target is 1.1845. In the case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around the 1.1710 level. If there is no demand there, it would be reasonable to wait for a retest of the 1.1680 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1650.

Current Technical Picture for GBP/USD For pound buyers, the key is to overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3450. Only then will they be able to aim for 1.3500, above which further progress will be rather difficult. The ultimate upward target is the 1.3555 level. In case of a decline, the bears will attempt to take control of 1.3400. If they succeed, a breakout of that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to 1.3365, with the prospect of extending the move to 1.3325.

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