USD/CHF breaks above 0.80000 key level on dollar upside - Potential targets and price forecast

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Finding support yesterday, USD/CHF trades 0.54% higher in today’s session, at 0.80251, crucially above the key level of 0.8000 for the first time since late September.

In recent memory, the 0.80000 psychological level has presented a key area of resistance; therefore, the subsequent few sessions remain as important as ever if bullish momentum is to be sustained.

USD/CHF: Key takeaways 08/10/2025

• Mainly owing to dollar strength, with the dollar strength index (DXY) recently posting four-week highs, USD/CHF has found some buying support, but remains down 11.57% year-to-date
• While seemingly more at peace with a strong franc than in recent memory, deflationary risks remain prevalent in the Swiss economy, with September’s CPI reading coming in lower than expected at 0.2% YoY
• Otherwise, and amid the current US Government Shutdown, a flight to dollar liquidity is offering some uplift to USD pricing

Read more FX coverage from MarketPulse: Weakness showdown: NZD vs JPY in the FX markets

Currency Power Balance, OANDA Global Markets, 08/10/2025

USD/CHF: Dollar upside the main catalyst for dollar-franc rally

Trading at lows not seen since 2022, it would appear that markets are not entirely comfortable with the current position of the dollar.

While there is no secret that 2025 has been a poor year for dollar performance, recent upside has been coined a ‘repricing trade’ by some, suggesting a level of technical buying from multi-year lows.

Simultaneously, we’ve seen other major currencies weaken, particularly the Japanese yen, with the new dovish leadership allowing the DXY to strengthen somewhat.

As ever, let’s discuss some of the major fundamental themes to consider when trading USD/CHF currently:

High interest rates: Put simply, the United States offers the highest interest rates available across all G10 countries. While this is just one piece of the currency puzzle, higher rates in comparison to other currencies attract global interest, offering a significant carry advantage - especially in the case of USD/CHF.

Technical buying: As a personal anecdote, I once knew a trader who would only ever buy the dollar when trading FX. Case in point, markets are not accustomed to a weak dollar, especially over the last decade or so. As such, and in line with other technical analysis principles, some view current dollar pricing as an opportunity to get long.

Flight to liquidity: While logically, a US government shutdown would bode poorly for the greenback, this has proven true in recent sessions. Although confidence in the US government has been somewhat undermined, a flight to global liquidity in an effort to balance currency risk is bolstering USD gains. This phenomenon is relatively unique to the dollar, owing to its status as the world's #1 reserve currency.

US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) & Swiss Franc Strength Index (SXY), TVC, TradingView, 08/10/2025

USD/CHF: Persistent Swiss deflationary risk casts shadow over safe-haven status

Met with persistently weak inflation, coming in below expectations at 0.2% in September’s report, the Swiss economy is dangerously close to deflationary territory, raising serious questions about the reliability of the franc as a safe-haven currency and fueling speculation of a return to negative interest rates.

While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has made at least some suggestions that they are less concerned with CHF strength, it would be foolish to suggest that policy intervention remains entirely off the table.

As such, markets are apprehensive about taking further USD/CHF shorts, wary of a potential for intervention ruining an otherwise profitable trade, effectively limiting USD/CHF downside in the short-term.

USD/CHF: Technical Analysis 08/10/2025

USD/CHF: Daily (D1) chart analysis:

USD/CHF, D1, OANDA, TradingView, 08/10/2025

Breaking out of a downwards descending channel in today’s session, the next few trading days will be crucial if USD/CHF hopes to extend weekly gains above 0.80000.

While a dovish Fed might put a lid on USD gains, should the price be able to form a base, we can expect some further upside.

Using the default period of 14, the RSI also has some way to go before overbought levels, suggesting that further upside is possible.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1 (R1) - 78.6% Fib - 0.80575
• Support 1 (S1) - 78.6% Fib - 0.79935
• Support 2 (S2) - Bottom of range - 0.79465

Otherwise, and to secure a bearish move, price would have to break the second support. In this scenario, the next stop would likely be around 0.79095.

Read about today’s rally in precious metal pricing: Gold (XAU/USD) Prices Up 1.5% on the Day. Is Gold's $4,000 Breakout Sustainable?

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