EUR/USD Forecast on October 9, 2025

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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the support level of 1.1645–1.1656, then rebounded from this level, and this morning – another rebound. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594. A consolidation of the pair above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would favor the European currency and some growth toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous one, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" for now. The latest labor market data and the revised Fed monetary policy outlook support bullish traders, which is why I expect a trend change to "bullish." For the bearish trend to end, the price must consolidate above the last peak at 1.1779.

On Wednesday, the only notable event was the FOMC minutes. These minutes usually reflect the sentiment of FOMC members and their outlook for future monetary policy changes. Yesterday's minutes showed that overall, Fed officials support further rate cuts but advise against easing policy too quickly. There are risks of an economic slowdown, so monetary easing cannot be delayed. But rates also cannot be cut too quickly, since U.S. inflation has accelerated in recent months and may prove persistent. Some members believe that the next rate cut should wait until stronger evidence of labor market weakness emerges. However, the majority still support moderate monetary easing. Traders interpreted the minutes as "dovish," yet the U.S. dollar's exchange rate is not reflecting any bearish factors for now. The dollar continues to rise, even though much of the news background points to its decline. Most likely, the FOMC will decide to lower the rate twice before the end of this year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below 1.1680, allowing traders to expect further decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. The CCI indicator shows an emerging "bullish" divergence that could halt the current decline. A close above 1.1680 would favor the euro and a resumption of the "bullish" trend toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1854.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional players closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, while short positions amount to 138,000. The gap is effectively two-to-one. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above — they indicate strong position-building in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar falls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may create many long-term, structural problems for the U.S. Despite the signing of several key trade agreements, many important economic indicators continue to decline.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Speech by FOMC Chair Jerome Powell (12:30 UTC).

On October 9, the economic calendar contains just one entry, but this one outweighs all others for the week. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be strong.

EUR/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Selling was possible on the rebound from 1.1718 on the hourly chart. The support level of 1.1645–1.1656 has been broken, so short positions can be held with a target at 1.1594. The last two rebounds from 1.1645 indicate that the decline will continue. Buying may be considered on a rebound from 1.1594 or on a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 level.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

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