Nasdaq 100: Short to medium-term bullish trends intact amid AI bubble fears

[Redator]

Key takeaways

• Nasdaq 100 hits record high: The index rallied 1.2% on 8 October 2025, reaching a new all-time closing high of 25,137, supported by continued tech sector strength.
• AI bubble concerns rise: Market chatter grows around US$1 trillion in “AI circular deals” among OpenAI, Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle, sparking valuation worries.
• Technical outlook remains bullish: The Nasdaq 100 stays within its ascending channel, above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.
• Market breadth improves: A rising share of Nasdaq 100 stocks now trades above short- and medium-term moving averages, reinforcing bullish momentum.

The Nasdaq 100 rallied by 1.2% on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, and scaled to another fresh all-time closing high of 25,137.

All in all, the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 has started October on a firm footing with a month-to-date gain of 1.35% as of 8 October 2025, trailing just behind the current top performer, the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.70%) among the major US benchmark stock indices.

$1 trillion AI circular deals

Fig. 1: AI circular deals among OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, AMD & major technology hardware providers (Source: Bloomberg News, 8 Oct 2025)

In the recent week, there has been a growing chatter of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble that has formed due to circular deals that involved the generative AI market leader, OpenAI, and other major technology hardware providers, as well as chip makers; Nvidia, AMD, and Oracle Corp, that could amount to US$1 trillion (see Fig. 1).

These intertwined deals have revived fears of a bubble and raised questions about whether Nvidia (also the largest component stock in the Nasdaq 100) is investing heavily to prop up the market and keep companies to spending on its products.

In addition, OpenAI is still burning cash and does not expect to be cash-flow positive until around 2030.

Despite the rising fears of an AI bubble, the technical structure of the Nasdaq 100 remains bullish. Let’s now break down the latest technical analysis elements, short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), and relevant short-term key levels to watch for the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures).

Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 9 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Fig. 3: Market breadth of Nasdaq 100 (% of stocks above 20-day/50-day MA) as of 9 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Preferred trend bias (1-3 days)

The medium-term uptrend phase of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index remains intact from the 2 September 2025 low of 22,979.

Bullish bias above 24,795 short-term pivotal support for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 25,370 and 25,590/25,640 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).

Key elements

• The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index have continued to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel since 2 September 2025 and traded above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 2).
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index has remained supported by an ascending trendline, which suggests short-term bullish momentum remains intact (see Fig. 2).
• Market breadth of the Nasdaq 100 has continued to improve. The percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks trading above their respective 20-day and 50-day moving averages has increased steadily from 25 September 2025 to 8 September 2025 (% of stocks above 20-day moving averages increased from 46% to 57%, and % of stocks above 50-day moving averages increased from 40% to 55% (see Fig. 3).

Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days)

A break below the 24,795 key short-term support on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline sequence to materialise, exposing the next intermediate supports at 24,620 and 24,380.

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