Is the Bank of Japan Truly Independent? The Takaichi Era May Put That to the Test

Ben Graham · Outubro 9

Is the Bank of Japan Truly Independent?

In Japan in the mean time…

One key theme in 2025 has been a weaker USDJPY, driven by diverging monetary policy paths. While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been preparing to raise interest rates, other major central banks, most notably the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) are shifting toward rate cuts.

USDJPY Daily Chart

However, recent political developments in Japan are reshaping market expectations. The soon-to-be Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of Abenomics, has signaled a potentially more cautious stance on monetary tightening.

According to a Newsquawk.com report:

Advisor to Japan’s new LDP leader Takaichi, Honda, says the BoJ should be cautious about raising interest rates; unclear when the next rate hike would be but Takaichi is likely to be cautious.

This development has reignited a long-standing question: Is the Bank of Japan truly independent from the ruling government?

The Bank of Japan’s Legal Independence

From a legal standpoint, the BoJ is independent but with conditions. The Bank of Japan Act of 1998 was designed to ensure that the central bank could conduct monetary policy independently, with its primary mandate being price stability.

However, the law also requires that the BoJ maintain close contact with the government, ensuring that its policies remain “in harmony with the government’s basic economic policy.”

In other words, independence exists on paper, but coordination is built into the framework.

In Practice: Policy Coordination Over Independence

While the BoJ is legally independent, its actions are often coordinated with government policies.

Leadership Appointments: The BoJ’s Governor and Deputy Governors are appointed by the Cabinet and approved by Japan’s Parliament. This gives the government dome indirect say in the shaping of monetary policy decisions.
Ministry of Finance Coordination: Historically, the BoJ has worked closely with the Ministry of Finance, especially during periods of deflation and economic stagnation.

Abenomics Example:

Under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the BoJ played a central role in Abenomics, a three-pronged policy of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms.

- The BoJ launched aggressive quantitative easing, printing money to buy government bonds and other assets to push down yields and stimulate inflation toward a 2% target.
- This was a clear example of policy coordination that blurred the lines between central bank independence and government influence.
- The “Takaichi Trade”: Markets Bet on a Return to Abenomics Under Japan’s New Prime Minister

Today’s Reality: Independence Under Pressure

Formally, the Bank of Japan remains independent. But in practice, political and economic pressures often shape its policy direction. While the BoJ conducts its operations independently it does not do so with complete autonomy, especially when the government’s economic strategies depend on continued monetary support.

Now, with Sanae Takaichi taking office, that dynamic may once again come into play.

A New Era, Different Challenges

While Takaichi supports Abenomics-style growth policies, Japan’s economic environment has changed:

Deflation is no longer the central threat.
Economic growth, though modest, is mildly positive.
Inflation has finally shown signs of life.

This means the Abenomics blueprint of aggressive monetary easing may no longer fit current conditions. Still, political pressure could mount on the BoJ to delay rate hikes and maintain easy financial conditions.

Adding to that, fiscal stimulus may soon return to center stage.According to Newsquawk,

LDP leader Takaichi will immediately issue an order to compile a stimulus package once chosen in parliament to become the next Prime Minister.

This suggests a renewed focus on government spending, a move that could complicate the BoJ’s efforts to manage bond yields if JGB rates rise as a result.

To sum up, the question of BoJ independence has never been purely theoretical, it’s a matter of how Japan balances monetary and fiscal coordination.

As the Takaichi administration begins, the Bank of Japan may once again find itself navigating a fine line between maintaining credibility as an independent central bank and supporting government-led economic policy.

As Takaichi said, BoJ is responsible for monetary policy but any decision must align with the government goal.(newsquawk.com)