How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdown

Ben Graham · Outubro 9

The US government shutdown, which began at midnight on October 6, shows no sign of ending soon — and many now expect it could at least become the second-longest in US history.

Despite six Democratic attempts to pass a funding bill, the Senate has repeatedly rejected proposals to reopen the government.

US Shutdown — Length of the different US Government shutdowns – Source: Statista - Reposting of the graph published in our October 2 Market Wrap

The current shutdown has been ongoing for nine days already – The length of it already surpasses 14 of the previous ones, with some lasting only one day, like during the 1980s.

There are, however, faint hopes for a resolution, with growing pressure from agencies, unions, and private-sector partners potentially pushing lawmakers to reach a deal in the coming weeks.

Because of the ongoing shutdown, even Marco Rubio, one of the US top diplomats, will not be able to attend the Paris meeting about the future for Gaza, as peace in the Middle East comes closer.

For now, the impact on economic visibility is clear. With most “non-essential” government functions halted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — responsible for the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Weekly Jobless Claims — is temporarily closed.

This leaves traders and analysts without two of the most critical labor market indicators.

So, where can investors look to fill the data gap and gauge the health of US employment while the shutdown persists? Let's discover this just below.

Private data makes a comeback

Private surveys provide valuable insight into the US labor market.

While they typically move markets less than official BLS data, they’re now attracting increased attention amid the government shutdown.

The most widely followed — and most market-moving — is the ADP Private Employment Report, which recently showed a decline of 32,000 jobs. It is getting more attention, particularly as it provides a seemingly more precise picture (when looking at the huge revisions from BLS data in 2025).

Screenshot 2025-10-09 at 3.52.15 PM — ADP Private Employment in the past 12 months, starting to plateau – Source: ADPEmployment

Other indicators help to fill the gap: the Challenger Job-Cut Report offers a monthly look at layoffs, while the Gallup Job Creation Index (released quarterly, so not very timely) gives a sentiment-based measure of hiring conditions.

The ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs also include employment sub-indexes, offering additional clues about job trends across sectors.

Even private institutions have stepped up their data releases — for instance, a Bank of America survey showed slower job growth and rising claims despite steady wage gains, and Carlyle Group estimated that the US added just 17,000 jobs in September.

While the ADP report remains the benchmark among these alternatives, this period could see new private datasets gain prominence — especially those that prove more consistent or predictive of official labor trends once BLS operations resume.

Public data also isn't done yet

Public data isn’t totally absent when assessing the US labor market — a few key Federal Reserve surveys continue operating even during the shutdown.

These surveys offer timely snapshots of employment trends across various districts, providing indirect but valuable clues about hiring and job stability.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey (the most market-moving) and the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey ask firms whether employment and work hours are rising or falling, giving an early read on hiring momentum in the Eastern US.

The Richmond Fed runs manufacturing and service sector surveys, where companies report payroll changes and labor availability.

Further west, the Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District surveys and the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing and Service Outlooks measure shifts in employment and wages through monthly questionnaires sent to local businesses.

Though these regional reports vary in scope, their employment sub-indices tend to move consistently with national labor data, making them valid proxies until the Bureau of Labor Statistics resumes regular publication.

Individual Fed regional presidents tend to mention these studies when they appear, which helps them assess their own decision-making during FOMC meetings.

Too Long, Didn't read – What data releases should I focus on as a trader

Private Surveys:

ADP Private Employment (released monthly)
Challenger Job Layoffs
Employment Sub-Indexes from the ISM PMI data
Bank surveys like those offered from the Bank of America

Public Surveys, mostly from the Federal Reserve

New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Survey

Markets don't seem to care too much about the shutdown, at least for now

Screenshot 2025-10-09 at 3.30.31 PM — US Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, October 9, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar is up 2% since October 1st, not showing the slightest care.

Even legendary traders and Hedge Fund managers like Citadel's Ken Griffin repeat that the shutdown will have no material impact for Markets.

Still, Markets start to react when nobody seems to care anymore, so keep your eyes open.

Safe Trades!

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