Solana Network Activity Drops 50%: Is The Rally Built On Weak Fundamentals?

[Redator]

Solana is experiencing sharp volatility as the broader crypto market faces growing uncertainty. While some analysts expect an expansive move across the market, others remain cautious, pointing to Bitcoin’s difficulty in breaking cleanly into price discovery as a potential headwind. Solana, which has rallied strongly in recent weeks, now shows signs of divergence between its price action and underlying network activity — a signal that often raises questions about sustainability.

According to Crypto Onchain, a CryptoQuant analyst, a closer look at Solana’s onchain data reveals a negative divergence between its price and the number of network transactions. This means that while SOL’s price continues to climb, overall transaction activity on the network has dropped significantly. Such patterns are typically viewed as warning signs, suggesting that price momentum might be driven more by speculative trading than organic growth in network usage.

Still, market sentiment around Solana remains mixed. Bulls argue that the decline in transaction count could stem from structural changes in the network’s voting activity rather than a true drop in user engagement. As Solana consolidates amid these conflicting signals, investors are watching closely to determine whether this volatility marks a healthy correction — or the early signs of exhaustion in its rally.

Solana Activity Declines Despite Strong Price Rally

According to data from CryptoQuant, Solana’s network is showing a sharp contraction in transactional activity even as its price continues to rally. The daily transaction volume has fallen from roughly 125 million on July 24, 2025, to around 64 million today, marking a drop of nearly 50%. What makes this decline particularly notable is that it has occurred during a period of strong upward movement in SOL’s price, creating a negative divergence between price momentum and network fundamentals.

This divergence presents an important warning signal. In a healthy market environment, price appreciation should ideally be supported by growth in real ecosystem usage — meaning more DeFi activity, NFT transactions, and user transfers. Instead, the data suggests that Solana’s recent rally could be driven more by market sentiment and speculative enthusiasm rather than sustained organic demand on-chain.

However, to understand the full picture, it’s necessary to examine which transactions are declining. Historically, 80–90% of Solana’s activity consists of “voting” transactions, which are essential for maintaining network consensus. A reduction in those does not necessarily reflect lower user activity. If, however, the drop stems from reduced DeFi and NFT interactions, it could signal weakening fundamentals behind Solana’s price surge.

Analysts are watching closely to determine whether this trend represents a temporary technical adjustment or an early warning of speculative overheating. If user-driven activity continues to decline, Solana could face increased risk of a deeper correction, testing whether the recent price rally is truly sustainable.

Price Analysis: Consolidation After a Strong Rally

Solana (SOL) is showing signs of consolidation after an extended rally that pushed its price above the $240 level earlier this month. The chart reveals that SOL has entered a short-term corrective phase, currently trading near $221, down about 3.5% on the day. Despite the pullback, Solana maintains a bullish market structure, as it continues to trade above the key 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, which are trending upward — a sign that momentum remains in favor of the bulls.

The $210–$215 zone stands out as the immediate support area, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Holding above this level would confirm that buyers remain in control and could prepare the asset for another attempt to reclaim $240–$250. A successful breakout above these levels could open the path toward $280, where Solana faced resistance in late 2024.

However, a decisive drop below $210 could trigger deeper corrections, with potential downside targets near $190. Overall, Solana appears to be stabilizing after its recent surge, and maintaining support above the 50-day MA will be key for sustaining bullish momentum as the market awaits confirmation of the next major move.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com