US Stock Market outlook – S&P 500 breaks channel, Equities in the red to close the week

[Redator]

The weekly close turns more cautious after a strong run for tech and growth stocks.

Some technical concerns had risen on Tuesday after a huge risk-off/profit-taking session that wasn't explained by any particular fundamental change.

Both the S&P 500 (6,764) and Nasdaq (25,195) printed fresh record highs over the past 24 hours, capping a stellar stretch for the sector — though the Dow Jones, still below last Friday’s 47,000 peak, hasn’t quite kept pace.

As explained in our previous session analysis, this divergence has started to drag sentiment. The rest will be to see how far it influences overall stock performance.

Read More: US stocks sector divergence raises red flags

Daily Chart Outlook for US Equities – October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

In a strong correction session, indices are retracing toward the highs reached in late September, as traders show hesitancy from the “everything rally” stretch.

Despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, markets had largely shrugged off political noise — until today.

With Gold surging past $4,000 and the U.S. Dollar rebounding sharply over the past week, capital rotation is starting to weigh on risk assets.

US Equity heatmap – October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Heavyweights like Amazon, AMD, Nvidia and Meta are down roughly 3% on the day, dragging sentiment across the broader tech complex.

Still, the Nasdaq remains relatively resilient compared to its peers, holding key right around its September 23 pivot even amid the unwind – So the flows aren't just about massice undoing of the yearly trades (even metals are performing well, Silver is back above $50!!).

Let’s take a look at the charts for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to assess how deep this pullback could go.

Read More:

• Canadian employment makes a comeback – USD/CAD reverses
• How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdown

US Index analysis and levels: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Dow Jones 8H Chart

Dow Jones 8H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Technicals for the Dow are not looking optimal for bulls.

A multi-day rejection of the past week records has led to a bearish corrective sequence, leading to the strong move below the 8H 50-period MA.

This follows a break from its steep upward channel that had begun in August – Steep channels tend to break and prices are still far from bearish, but higher timeframe momentum is stalling.

Now trading right at its Key pivot (45,650 to 45,750), buyers will have to defend the level to avoid a more bearish-looking price action.

Dow Jones technical levels of interest

Resistance Levels

• Current All-time high 47,105
• ATH Resistance Zone 47,000 to 47,160 (+/- 150 pts)
• post-FOMC highs and MA 50 46,400

Support Levels

• August ATH Immediate Pivot 45,650 to 45,750
• 45,767 Session lows at August 22 highs (immediate test)
• 45,000 psychological level
• 44,400 to 44,500 Main Support

Nasdaq 8H Chart

Nasdaq 8H Chart, October 6, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Nasdaq rejected the 25,200 to 25,300 Fibonacci-Extension with precision, dragged down from the overall bearish performance in the Dow.

Now at the lows of its steep ascending channel, reactions will be key.

Prices have moved below the intraday Momentum pivot and MA 50 (24,750) which may hurt the technical outlook further.

Now at a Support, coinciding with the lower bound of its upward channel, buyers will have to defend the price action. Failing to do so may lead to revisiting the 24,000 August levels.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest

Resistance Levels

• current ATH 25,224
• 1.618 Fib-Extension resistance between 25,200 and 25,300
• Psychological Resistance around 25,000
• Momentum Pivot and 8H MA 50 24,750

Support Levels

• Support at the lows of the channel 24,400 (immediate Support)
• August 12 ATH zone turning support (23,950 to 24,020)
• 23,000 Key Support
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

S&P 500 8H Chart

S&P 500 8H Chart, October 10, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The RSI is getting closed to oversold, but some worrying signs are showing for the 500-best US equities.

Price action has held a steep upward channel since May 2025 (post-Liberation Day rebound) but this channel just broke to the lower side.

Only the September NFP brought the index below, but shortly followed with an upward correction.

With short-timeframe momentum prompting stalling price action, the correction is stalling, but monitor reactions to the 6,600 Support which approaches fast.

Failure from bulls to hold the support prompts a larger correction in the S&P 500.

S&P 500 Trading Levels:

Resistance Levels

• 6,774 (current All Time-Highs)
• Key current Resistance 6,745 to 6,760
• Key Pivot Zone 6,670 to 6,700
• potential resistance (1.618 fib - 6,790 to 6,800)

Support Levels

• 6,570 to 6,600 Key Support
• 6,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH now Support (MA 200 Confluence)
• 6,400 Main Support
• 6,210 to 6,235 Main Support (August NFP Lows)

Safe Trades!

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