EUR/USD Forecast for October 13, 2025

[Ben Graham]

Friday's statement by U.S. President Donald Trump on imposing a 100% tariff on all categories of Chinese goods triggered a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrency and equity markets. The total capitalization of the crypto market—comprising 9,510 coins—fell by 6.16% on the day, with another similar drop over the weekend. Combined, this amounted to a 13.5% decline at its lowest point. By Monday morning, the market had recovered about half of those losses.

The S&P 500 stock index dropped by 2.71%. The yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined from 3.76% to 3.64%.

It's somewhat surprising, then, that the euro gained 57 pips during Friday's session. The Australian dollar, by contrast, fell nearly 80 pips on the same day.

We believe that Friday's panic was contained, which preserves the possibility of further recovery across financial markets. A notable observation is that trading volume on Friday in the euro was not particularly high—it was comparable to that of October 6.

On the daily timeframe, the price has returned above the target level of 1.1605. If it manages to break above the MACD line at 1.1675, the level at 1.1779 could be tested again. The Marlin oscillator, currently in the downward trend zone, is attempting to enter bullish territory. Visually, this transition may occur simultaneously with a breakout above 1.1675. If the price consolidates below 1.1605, the downside target at 1.1495 will become relevant.

On the four-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the 1.1605 level, and the Marlin oscillator has entered bullish territory. The nearest resistance is at 1.1655, which coincides with the MACD line. We are awaiting a confirmed breakout above this level.

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