Markets Today: Gold Up 1.4%, Chinese Exports Soar as Trade War Fears Return, DAX Bounces but Risks Remain

[Ben Graham]

Asia Market Wrap - Choppy Trading Dominates

Most Read: Trade Setup to Watch: EUR/USD Breaks Ascending Trendline, Further Downside Ahead?

Asian stock markets dropped sharply on Monday as renewed tensions in the US-China trade war worried investors, although there were early signs the fear was easing.

The trade conflict escalated when the US and China exchanged fresh threats over the weekend, causing a widespread "risk-off" mood. However, US President Donald Trump later struck a more reassuring tone, suggesting things would "be fine" and that the US did not want to "hurt" China.

Meanwhile, Beijing defended its restrictions on exports of rare earth materials as a response to US actions, but it did not announce any new taxes on US goods.

Markets across the region reacted negatively: the broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (outside Japan) fell 1.6%, South Korea's index slid 1.3%, and Australia lost 0.6%. Chinese blue-chip stocks also fell 1.3%, although sectors like rare earth materials and semiconductors saw some gains. The Chinese market also showed some resilience after positive trade data indicated that exports were much stronger than expected.

Trading was choppy due to holidays in Japan and the US.

Japan's main Nikkei index was closed, but its futures plunged 5% on Friday due to political uncertainty surrounding the appointment of the new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.

However, Nikkei futures showed a small bounce on Monday, trading up 1.5% but still well below the last cash close.

Chinese Exports Record Strongest Gain Since March

In a sign of its economic strength despite the trade war, China's exports grew much faster than expected in September 2025, reaching their quickest pace in six months.

China's total exports increased by 8.3% compared to the same month last year, hitting a total of $328.6 billion. This strong growth showed that Chinese producers were successfully finding new customers outside of the United States.

Specifically, exports saw big jumps to regions like the European Union (up 14.2%) and the ASEAN countries in Southeast Asia (up 15.6%), as well as to South Korea (up 7.0%) and Australia (up 10.7%). In sharp contrast, China's exports to the US plummeted by 27.0%.

The growth was broad, with high increases recorded for products like integrated circuits (up 23.3%), cars (up 10.8%), and ships (up 21.4%).

However, exports of rare earth materials fell 7.6%, which is likely due to China's current restrictions on those exports.

Overall, this strong export performance gives China a more confident position in its trade conflict with the US.

European Session - European Shares Steady After Friday Selloff

European stock markets stabilized and moved higher on Monday, recovering from a sharp drop on Friday that was caused by renewed tensions in the US-China trade war.

The overall STOXX 600 pan-European index climbed 0.6%, recovering a significant portion of the losses seen after US President Donald Trump had threatened to impose 100% taxes on Chinese goods.

The market mood improved after Trump softened his tone over the weekend. The gains were driven mainly by increases in technology and mining stocks.

Among national markets, France's CAC 40 led the way, rising 0.9%, after the country quickly reappointed Sebastien Lecornu as Prime Minister, just four days after his resignation.

Individual stocks also saw big moves: AstraZeneca rose 0.7% after it agreed to a deal with the US government to sell some medicines at a discount in exchange for relief from tariffs.

German software firm PSI Software soared 37% after confirming that private equity firm Warburg Pincus would buy the company for over 700 million euros.

Finally, French firm Exosens jumped nearly 13% after a Greek night vision company announced plans to buy a significant stake in it.

On the FX front, the US dollar was slightly weaker overall on Monday, though it showed mixed results against individual currencies.

The index that tracks the dollar's value against a group of major currencies dipped 0.1%. The euro remained stable against the dollar at $1.1622.

However, the dollar grew stronger against the Japanese yen, rising 0.5% to 151.89 yen.

Meanwhile, the Chinese currency, the offshore yuan, gained 0.2% after reports showed China's export growth was strong in September.

Other currencies also saw gains against the dollar: the Australian dollar jumped 0.8%, the New Zealand dollar rose 0.3%, and the British pound edged up 0.1%.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Gold prices soared to a new all-time high on Monday, reflecting increased safe-haven demand due to the renewed US-China trade tensions and ongoing expectations for US interest rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 1.5%, setting a new record above $4,078 per ounce, with US gold futures also surging over 2%. Silver also mirrored this move by reaching its own record high. This rush into precious metals shows that investors remain cautious about the global economic and geopolitical environment.

Oil prices moved higher on Monday, recovering from a sharp drop on Friday.

Both major types of crude oil, Brent and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) had fallen by around 4% on Friday, hitting their lowest prices since May. However, the market bounced back on Monday because of the possibility that the presidents of the world's two largest economies (and biggest oil users) might hold talks.

If these trade tensions ease, it could boost global economic growth and, consequently, the demand for oil. As a result, Brent crude futures rose by 1.5% to trade at $63.67 a barrel, and WTI crude futures also gained 1.54% to reach $59.81 a barrel

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

Looking at the economic calendar, it is a rather quiet day from a data perspective with the OPEC + monthly report the main data release.

Besides that we once again have a host of central bank speakers. Tariff and trade war developments will be in focus as markets wait for any developments or comments around a potential deal or discussions which could ease tensions between the US and China which could lead to improved sentiment.

For more information on the week ahead, read Markets Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical peace and turmoil ; Third week of shutdown

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day - DAX Index

From a technical standpoint, the DAX index has pulled back to the top of the channel it broke out of last week.

A gap up over the weekend has left the index trading higher than its Friday close with a potential golden cross pattern (s0-day MA crosses above 100-day MA) hinting at the potential for further upside.

Given the risks present at the start of the week a lot will hinge on US-China trade war developments which could shape the overall risk narrative.

Immediate upside resistance for now rests at 24500 before the 24665 swing high from July 10 comes into focus.

A move to the downside will face support at 24200 before the confluence area around 24000 comes into focus.

DAX Index Daily Chart, October 13. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

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