What to Watch on October 14: Fundamental Event Overview for Beginners

[Redator]

Macroeconomic Report Summary:

Several macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Tuesday. In Germany, the final estimate of September inflation will be published. It should be noted that the second reading is almost always a formality. Additionally, ZEW economic sentiment indices for Germany and the Eurozone will be released. While these are considered important indicators, we do not expect a strong market reaction.

In the United Kingdom, the most interesting and significant reports will be released: unemployment, jobless claims, and wage growth figures. If the data are neutral and in line with forecasts, traders are unlikely to react. However, any surprising or extreme values could trigger significant movement.

Fundamental Event Analysis:

There are several fundamental events planned for today, but the primary focus is on Jerome Powell's speech. In recent weeks, we have heard from many representatives of the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank— and learned nothing new. As a result, most speeches by central bank officials no longer have a significant influence on the currency markets.

Powell himself has spoken several times recently, and his rhetoric has remained unchanged. There is no reason to expect a more "dovish" or "hawkish" tone from the Fed Chair, especially given the current situation in the U.S., where macroeconomic data are not being published due to the government shutdown. Without data, the Federal Reserve is unable to assess inflation trends, labor market conditions, or unemployment levels — prerequisites for adjusting its monetary policy stance.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to move chaotically and irrationally. For now, we are predominantly observing a decline in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, for which logical explanations are hard to find.

Today, the euro may start a new upward movement toward the 1.1655–1.1666 area if it consolidates above the 1.1571–1.1584 zone. The British pound may continue rising after confirming a breakout above the trendline and the 1.3329–1.3331 area, targeting the 1.3413–1.3421 resistance level.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by how long it takes to form (bounce or breakout from a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened based on false signals around a level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In flat markets, any pair can generate many false signals—or none at all. Either way, at the first signs of flat behavior, it's best to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades must be closed manually after this window.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used when there is good volatility and a confirmed trend based on a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too closely together (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance zone.
7. After a trade moves 15-20 pips in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell orders. These levels are also appropriate for placing Take Profit orders.
• Red lines: trend lines or channels indicating the current trend and preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14,22,3): histogram and signal line — a supplementary indicator that can also be used for signal confirmation.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during such events, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp price reversals.

Beginner traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a strict trading strategy and proper money management are key to long-term success in forex trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com