JPMorgan (JPM) bullish reversal from 5% decline at key support as Q3 earnings loom

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Key takeaways

• Earnings momentum strengthens: The S&P 500’s projected Q3 2025 earnings growth was revised up to 8.0% year-on-year, marking a potential ninth straight quarter of earnings expansion.
• JPMorgan leads Financials upgrades: JPMorgan Chase (EPS revised to $4.78) and Progressive have driven the Financials sector’s upward revisions.
• Bullish technical setup intact: After a 5.35% correction, JPMorgan’s stock rebounded near its 50-day moving average, with momentum indicators turning positive.

According to the latest FactSet data as of 3 October 2025, the projected year-on-year earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 in Q3 stands at 8.0%, up from 7.3% at the start of the quarter (30 June 2025). If realized, this would mark the ninth consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the index.

Six sectors have seen upward revisions to earnings estimates since 30 June, led by Information Technology (20.9% vs. 15.9%), Financials (11.0% vs. 7.6%), and Communication Services (3.2% vs. 0.8%) (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: S&P 500 and 11 sectors Q3 2025 earnings growth forecasts as of 3 Oct 2025 (Source: FactSet)

JPMorgan Chase leads Financials in Q3 earnings upgrade revisions

Within the Financials sector, JPMorgan Chase (EPS revised to $4.78 from $4.48) and Progressive (EPS revised to $4.81 from $3.53) have been key drivers behind the sector’s upward earnings revisions over the same period.

JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report its Q3 results on Tuesday, 14 October 2025, before the US market opens. Based on TradingView data, its Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) are expected to come in at US$4.85, a growth increase of 10% from the same quarter a year ago, US$4.37 EPS

Let’s now turn our focus to the technicals of JPMorgan

JPMorgan managed to stage a bullish reversal, medium-term uptrend intact

Fig. 2: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) medium-term trend as of 13 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView)

The 5.35% corrective decline from JPMorgan (JPM)’s all-time high of 318.01, recorded on 29 September 2025, appears to have reached a potential reversal zone, setting the stage for a fresh bullish impulsive upswing within its medium-term uptrend, which has remained intact since the 7 April 2025 low of 202.16 (see Fig. 2).

On Friday, 10 October, JPMorgan’s share price staged a 2.4% bullish reversal (low to close) after briefly retesting its 50-day moving average, which continues to serve as a key intermediate support around 303.80, following a short-lived sell-off sparked by renewed US-China trade tensions.

The daily RSI momentum indicator of JPM has also managed to stage a rebound after a retest on a key ascending trendline support at the 40 level and closer higher above the 50 level at 52 on Monday, 13 October 2025. These observations suggest a potential resurgence of medium-term bullish momentum conditions.

In addition, the ratio charts (relative strength gauges) of the JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 ETF and JPMorgan Chase/S&P 500 Financials sector ETF suggest potential outperformance of JPMorgan Chase against the S&P 500 and the Financials sector.

JPM’s key medium-term pivotal support rests at 294.30 to maintain the bullish bias for another round of potential bullish up move sequence for the next medium-term resistances to come in at 328.00/336.90 and 352.00/360.00 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster)

On the flip side, a break and a daily close below 294.30 key support invalidates the bullish scenario to trigger a deeper corrective decline sequence to expose 280.00 and even the major support of 269.50 (also the 200-day moving average).

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