Will US CPI Forecast Another Rates Cut? 400 Inflation Refund? Expert Predicts Next FOMC Move and BTC USD Reaction

[Redator]

400 inflation Refund? Well, unless you’re living in New York, you’re out of luck! Yet, the fight over inflation has returned to center stage and economists are taking aim at Trump’s claim he’s “beaten it.”

US inflation has cooled slightly, but for millions of Americans, the checkout line still feels like a robbery. Groceries, rent, gas, everything that matters day to day, remains painfully high.

(Source: Polymarket)

Here’s what you need to know and whether rate cuts can prevent a recession.

Inflation Is Slowing, But Prices Haven’t Fallen. Is The US Economy Screwed?

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, inflation now sits in the 3–3.5% range, down from the 9% peak of 2022. But “lower inflation” doesn’t mean lower prices. It just means costs are rising more slowly, and after years of compounding increases, families are still paying far more than before the pandemic.

Moreover, delayed government reports due to shutdowns have left analysts leaning on FRED and private models, which show persistent price strength in food, housing, and healthcare.

Consumers' net favorability of U.S. economic policies remains near low end of historical range (close to recession territory) pic.twitter.com/pDo4KSzk74

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) October 13, 2025

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, has cooled to roughly 2.9%, but the categories that matter most (e.g.rent, childcare, and medical bills) remain stubbornly high. Additionally, approximately 52% to 67% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, according to Investopedia.

DISCOVER: 20+ Next Crypto to Explode in 2025

Trump’s Claim vs. Economic Reality: Is POTUS Lying About the Economy?

Crypto Fear and Greed Chart

All time 1y 1m 1w 24h

Trump’s recent claim that his leadership “defeated inflation” doesn’t square neatly with the data. Economists credit the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes and improving supply chains more than political intervention.

Still, perception drives politics. Consumer confidence remains fragile, according to University of Michigan surveys, and many voters don’t feel the improvement that headline data shows.

(Source: University of Michigan)

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve faces a tricky trade-off in the upcoming FOMC on October 28, on whether to keep rates high to tame inflation or cut too soon and risk reigniting it. The current benchmark rate stands at 4.25%, with policymakers signaling gradual easing through 2026.

In her first speech as Philadelphia Fed president, Anna Paulson said the central bank must “balance risks to employment and price stability.”

DISCOVER: The 12+ Hottest Crypto Presales to Buy Right Now

Final Thoughts on Inflation: Will the Economy Recover Soon?

Real wage growth still trails cumulative inflation by about 7%, according to FRED data. Food costs are up 25%, rent is up 22%, and services inflation remains sticky. Despite record-low unemployment, most workers feel poorer than they did three years ago.

Economists expect inflation to hover around 3% into 2026, with only a gradual path back to the Fed’s 2% target. As Paulson put it, “We’ll have to feel our way toward neutral.”

Inflation is cooling, but not enough for households to feel relief.. As it stands, the markets and wider American populace need QE before the debt piles up more than they can handle.

EXPLORE: XRP Price Jumps 11% After SEC Crypto Unit Tease XRP ETF Progress

Key Takeaways

• BTC is roughly 5.1% below its July 14 all-time high of $122,838, but amidst the drama a new meme coin that is BTC-based is blowing up.
• Inflation has cooled slightly, but for millions of Americans, the checkout line still feels like a robbery.

The post Will US CPI Forecast Another Rates Cut? 400 Inflation Refund? Expert Predicts Next FOMC Move and BTC USD Reaction appeared first on 99Bitcoins.