GBP/USD Forecast on October 14, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair remained within the resistance zone of 1.3332–1.3357 for most of Monday. Only on Tuesday morning, following the release of UK economic data, did the bears get an opportunity to launch a new attack toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3225. A consolidation above the 1.3332–1.3357 level would favor the British currency and open the way for further growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3425.

The wave structure remains bearish. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the last downward wave did not breach the prior low. In recent weeks, the news background has been unfavorable for the US dollar, yet bullish traders have so far failed to take advantage of the opportunities for an upward move. To cancel the bearish trend, the pair needs to rise above 1.3528, but for now, the bears remain in control.

On Monday, there was very little news, and trader activity was rather low. However, on Tuesday morning, three reports were released in the UK, two of which significantly strengthen the bears' prospects for today. The unemployment rate in the UK rose from 4.7% to 4.8% (against expectations of 4.7%), and the number of new unemployed increased by 25.8 thousand versus a forecast of 10.3 thousand. Thus, in the coming hours, bears may launch a new attack, though I believe this data alone is not strong enough to drive the pound all the way down to 1.3225. In recent weeks, the pound's rate has been falling much more often than the fundamentals would justify.

This evening, Jerome Powell will speak. A week earlier, he made it clear that without new economic data, the FOMC would not make any monetary policy decisions or forecasts. By October 29, when the next Fed meeting is scheduled, the US government shutdown may already be over, so Powell is unlikely to be overly candid with traders today. Nevertheless, this event is one of the most important for the dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated below the 1.3339–1.3435 zone, which allows for the continuation of the decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118. A consolidation above 1.3339 would favor the pound and lead to some recovery. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any indicators, while further US dollar growth appears doubtful.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment among non-commercial traders became more bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions fell by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 85,000 vs. 86,000, with bullish traders once again tipping the balance slightly in their favor.

In my view, the pound still has downward potential, but with each passing month, the US dollar looks weaker and weaker. If traders were previously worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, unsure of what outcomes they might bring, they are now increasingly concerned about the consequences of those policies — a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's conflict with the Federal Reserve, which could result in the regulator becoming politically controlled by the White House. Thus, the pound now appears far less vulnerable than the US currency.

Economic Calendar for the US and the UK

United Kingdom

• Unemployment Rate (06:00 UTC)
• Change in Average Hourly Earnings (06:00 UTC)
• Change in the Number of Unemployed (06:00 UTC)

United States

• Speech by FOMC Chair Jerome Powell (16:20 UTC)

The October 14 economic calendar contains four noteworthy events, each of which is quite interesting. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is expected to be moderate throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Sell positions are possible upon a close below the 1.3332–1.3357 zone on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3225. Buy positions can be considered upon a close above the 1.3332–1.3357 zone, with a target of 1.3425.

Fibonacci grids are constructed between 1.3332–1.3725 on the hourly chart and 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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