WTI Oil tumbles as US-China trade tensions flare up again

[Redator]

A degrading sentiment took a pause yesterday as participants digested Trump’s remarks over a prolonged North American trading weekend , which initially signaled a possible de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China.

However, optimism looks short-lived.

China reiterated its stance through multiple official channels — including its Commerce Ministry and state media — emphasizing its readiness to respond firmly to any tariff actions which comes after an initial Friday comment from Donald Trump in case you missed the story.

Read More: US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand now

This is even leading to the EU and US looking to partner up again to fight the Chinese aggressive policy.

Adding pressure, US ships began paying duties at Chinese ports today, a measure long anticipated but now officially in effect.

This development has weighed heavily on global trade sentiment, extending the downtrend in Oil prices.

With easing Middle East tensions and steady Russian supply to fund its war in Ukraine, Oil fundamentals remain pointed to the downside except for the advent any black swan event.

WTI has now fallen below $60, and has been holding below the threshold since Trump's original post.

Let’s dive into Oil spot charts to see whether this decline is nearing exhaustion — or just beginning.

Read More:

• Markets Today: UK Wage Growth Hits 3-Year Lows, Gold Retreats from Highs, FTSE 100 Eyes Gains. US Earnings Season Ahead
• JPMorgan (JPM) bullish reversal from 5% decline at key support as Q3 earnings loom

WTI Daily Chart

US Oil Daily Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

This year has seen many factors leading to downward revised global economic performance.

The most evident one is the Trump tariffs which added a widespread angst among economists, especially as they get imposed about a year after the conclusion of the fastest hike cycles, which aimed to dampen the fast growing economies from 2022 and 2023.

Even a few years after, economic deceleration still imposes its dominance on oil demand, particularly when looking at the slowing labor growth in OECD nations which generate a lot of demand.

For example, the UK just published weak data as seen in the overnight data report (more on this coming on MarketPulse today) and an also slowing US jobs market.

This combined with Chinese deflation doesn't help for bulls prospects.

There is some nuance however, with Chinese trade data coming in way better than expected and airlines projecting a solid outlook ahead.

The daily chart shows reactions at the lows of the daily downtrend after the overnight 1.50% drop.

The RSI is approaching the oversold territory but isn't quite there. Let's take a closer look.

WTI 4H Chart and levels

US Oil 4H Chart, October 14, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Since the end of September, Oil has firmly held its daily descending channel and even formed a steeper hourly trend.

This led to the overnight $57.75 lows, levels not seen since May 2025 and the Liberation Day troughs.

There has been some small mean-reversion however as prices reach a confluence bottom of the daily & hourly channels, combined with a bullish RSI divergence and an end to a measured-move.

Traders will have to look at the daily lows: any attempt to make new lows and any 4H close below would maintain the bearish trend and push towards the $55 2025 support zone.

Any rebound from here may point to the 4H 50-MA at $61.15 , at a confluence with the upper bound of Hourly Channel.

Levels to place on your WTI charts:

Resistance Levels

• $59 to $60 2021 and 2025 Main Support now Pivot
• MA 50 and upper bound of Hourly Channel $61.15 to $61.30
• September range Support now resistance $62 to $63
• September resistance $65 to $67

Support Levels

• Overnight lows $57.76
• $55 to $56.50 2025 Support
• 2019 mini support $53 to $54
• Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.5

Safe Trades!

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