BMI lifts 2025 copper price forecast on resilient demand, supply disruptions

[Redator]

Fitch Solutions’ BMI has raised its 2025 average copper price forecast to $9,650 per tonne, up from $9,500 previously, as persistent supply disruptions and resilient industrial demand continue to support the market.

Copper prices have averaged $9,609 per tonne, but are currently trading above $10,000 per tonne due to a confluence of macro factors.

Chief amongst those are US interest rate cuts, which BMI predicts will spur manufacturing and investment activity into 2026, creating a tailwind for industrial metals. However, it also cautions that geopolitical tensions—particularly the renewed US-China trade confrontations—could cap further gains through 2026.

Clean energy driving demand

According to BMI, China remains the dominant driver of global copper consumption, though its property sector continues to weigh on near-term growth. The firm expects China’s GDP to expand 4.8% in 2025, slightly below target, as manufacturing PMIs hover below the expansion threshold.

Still, the country’s green-energy expansion has sharply lifted physical demand for the red metal, it adds. Solar capacity surged by 212 GW in the first half of 2025, nearly doubling year on year, while electric-vehicle (EV) sales rose 33% to 5.4 million units in the same period.

This renewable and EV boom has driven Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories to multi-year lows—from 160,800 tonnes in March to just 26,800 tonnes by end-September, BMI notes.

Globally, London Metal Exchange stocks fell by half over 2025 to nearly 140,000 tonnes, as much of its inventory had been exported into the US in anticipation of sectoral tariffs on the metal. On the Comex, copper stocks are sitting at 329,900 tonnes due to this front-loading.

Impact of mine disruptions

On the supply side, BMI believes copper prices will remain underpinned by a wave of supply disruptions across major producers.

A mud-flow disaster in September at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine, the second-largest globally, has led to its force majeure and a 35% reduction in its projected 2026 output.

RANKED: Top 20 biggest copper mines 2025

In Chile, the production decline is also profound, with state-owned miner Codelco’s output dropping 25% year-on-year in August to a 20-year low of 93,400 tonnes after an incident at El Teniente, the world’s largest underground copper mine.

The Collahuasi mine, jointly owned by Anglo American and Glencore, also saw its output drop 27%, and both companies have revised 2025–2026 production targets downward. Teck Resources, meanwhile, has cut its 2025 forecast at Quebrada Blanca to 170,000–190,000 tonnes, well below earlier guidance.

That said, BMI still expects global refined copper output to rise 2.4% in 2025, largely driven by China, but constrained by limited concentrate availability. Consequently, the firm forecasts a smaller global surplus this year compared with 2024.

Long-term outlook

Looking further ahead, BMI sees a “significant pipeline of new projects” to bring additional copper to the market in the coming decade, but the supply growth will be increasingly outpaced by demand.

Citing IEA data, the research team highlights that each battery-electric vehicle contains over 50 kg of copper—more than twice that of conventional cars—and renewable installations such as offshore wind require up to 8 tonnes per megawatt

As such, the firm projects copper prices to reach $17,000 per tonne by 2034, as chronic supply deficits emerge amid accelerating electrification and clean-energy infrastructure build-out.