USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders for October 14th (U.S. Session)

[Redator]

Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The price test of 151.95 in the first half of the day occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

During the U.S. session, data on the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released. Although this macroeconomic indicator might appear insignificant, it can still influence currency market dynamics — particularly for risk-sensitive assets. The NFIB index, reflecting the sentiment of small business owners, provides valuable insights into the outlook for U.S. economic growth. A decline in optimism in this sector may signal emerging problems in the economy, prompting investors to shift toward safer assets, traditionally including the U.S. dollar. This effect would be especially pronounced amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction.

In fact, these are precisely the prospects traders hope to hear about today from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose speech is scheduled for later in the day. Expectations of further monetary easing — if supported by weak small business sentiment data — could significantly weaken the dollar's position against the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 152.14 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 152.76 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 152.76, I plan to close buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level. The pair's upward movement may continue as part of the prevailing bullish trend.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 151.89 twice in a row, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 152.14 and 152.76.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the level of 151.89 (red line on the chart) is updated, which will likely lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 151.25, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Selling pressure on the pair may return if Fed officials adopt a dovish tone.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 152.14 twice in a row, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and cause a downward market reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 151.89 and 151.25.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – Approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – Approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should make trading decisions with great caution. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't apply money management principles and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions, based solely on current market conditions, are inherently a losing strategy for any intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com