USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 15. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The 151.89 level test occurred when the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the U.S. dollar, which resulted in a 25-pip drop in the pair.

The Japanese yen resumed its upward movement against the dollar after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced plans for a 25-basis-point rate cut. His statement acted as a catalyst for currency markets, triggering a reassessment of risk and outlooks for both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Investors shifted their focus back to the yen—a traditional safe-haven currency.

Despite the release of weak industrial production data in Japan, the yen continued to strengthen against the dollar. In the medium term, the future direction of the pair will depend on multiple factors, including policy decisions from both the Fed and the Bank of Japan, geopolitical developments, and global economic conditions. However, the course toward yen strength is likely to hold for now.

As for today's intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair reaches the 151.30 entry level (thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 151.80 (thicker green line). Around 151.80, I plan to exit long positions and enter short positions on a reversal, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from that level. It is best to return to long trades on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 150.97 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential and could lead to an upward reversal, with expected growth toward 151.30 and 151.80.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a breakout below 150.97 (thin red line on the chart), which may lead to a quick decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the 150.43 level (thicker red line), where I plan to exit short positions and consider direct long entries on a bounce, targeting a 20–25 pip reversal. It is optimal to sell from as high a level as possible.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 151.30 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would cap the pair's upside potential and could lead to a downward reversal, with anticipated movement toward 150.97 and 150.43.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry level for buy positions
• Thick green line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a long position
• Thin red line: Entry level for sell positions
• Thick red line: Target level for taking profit or manually exiting a short position
• MACD indicator: Use overbought and oversold zones as guidance for trade timing

Important for Beginners

Beginner traders in the forex market should make trade decisions with utmost caution. During the release of key economic data, it is often best to stay out of the market to avoid erratic price swings. If you choose to trade during such events, always use stop-loss orders to control risk. Trading without stop-losses can result in rapid loss of your entire deposit, especially if proper money management practices are not in place.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured plan—such as the one presented here. Random trade decisions based on short-term price fluctuations are not a viable strategy for any intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com