EUR/USD Forecast on October 15, 2025

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 61.8% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1594 and showed a slight decline. However, by evening, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above 1.1594. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the resistance level at 1.1645–1.1656. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. dollar and a resumption of the decline toward 1.1594 and 1.1517. A firm close above the level would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1718.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Therefore, the trend is still "bearish." However, the latest labor market data and changing expectations for Fed monetary policy are supporting bullish traders, so I anticipate a shift to a "bullish" trend soon. To end the current "bearish" trend, the price must consolidate above the last high at 1.1779.

On Tuesday, bearish traders attempted another attack, and early in the day the news background made this scenario quite realistic. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Indices came in weaker than expected, allowing bears to gain new momentum. However, later in the day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that while the outlook for the economy and inflation remains uncertain, it hasn't changed much since the last Fed meeting.

According to Powell, the data released before the government shutdown showed an acceleration in inflation and economic activity. He also noted a rise in unemployment in recent months but emphasized that it remains low overall. "Short-term inflation expectations have increased due to import tariffs, but in the long run, inflation forecasts remain at 2%," Powell said.

Thus, Powell didn't provide any major new information on Tuesday, but traders continue to doubt whether the Fed will decide to cut rates in October without fresh economic data. Overall, market uncertainty remains high, much of it related to Federal Reserve policy and Donald Trump's actions.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated below 1.1680, allowing traders to expect continued decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1495. However, a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator may help stop the current decline. A close above 1.1680 and the descending trend channel would favor the euro and signal a potential resumption of the "bullish" trend toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1854.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. The sentiment among the non-commercial category remains bullish, thanks largely to Donald Trump's policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 252,000, while short positions total 138,000 — a nearly two-to-one difference.

Also, note the number of green cells in the table above: they reflect strong increases in positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing their short positions and increasing their long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain a major factor for traders, as they could lead to long-term, structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators are showing declines.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone

Eurozone – Industrial Production Change (09:00 UTC)

For October 15, the economic calendar includes only one "second-tier" event. Therefore, the influence of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will likely be minimal.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Sell positions are possible today if the pair rebounds from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1594 and 1.1517. Buy positions could have been considered upon closing above 1.1594, with targets at 1.1645–1.1656. Today, a firm close above 1.1645–1.1656 would allow traders to keep long positions open, targeting 1.1718.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com