GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for October 15th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for Trading the British Pound

The price test of 1.3367 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound.

Comments from Bank of England officials did not help the pound rise. Investors, who are seeking clearer signals on the future course of monetary policy, heard nothing new — only restrained statements.

Today, attention will focus on the Empire Manufacturing Index, which may shed light on the state of industry in the region and, indirectly, across the country. Investors are extremely sensitive to any signs of a slowdown or acceleration in economic activity, as this directly affects the outlook for corporate earnings and, consequently, the movement of stock indexes. The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to show a slight improvement compared to the previous month. However, only a significant deviation from forecasts could trigger a sharp market reaction.

After that, investors' attention will shift to speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Christopher Waller and Jeffrey Schmid. Their comments on the current macroeconomic situation and the outlook for monetary policy will be closely analyzed for hints of further interest rate cuts — a topic mentioned yesterday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches around 1.3362 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3398 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3398, I plan to close buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point movement in the opposite direction. A strong rise in the pound can be expected today if the upward trend continues.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3342 price level, at the moment when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3362 and 1.3398.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3342 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 1.3304, where I plan to exit sell positions and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point movement upward from that level). The pound could weaken in the second half of the day.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3362 price level, at the moment when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3342 and 1.3304.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price where you can set a Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price where you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price where you can set a Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly — especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com