Gold (XAU/USD) rallies to all-time highs of $4218 on trade tremors and rate cut expectations - Potential targets and price forecast

[Redator]

Renewing all-time highs earlier today, around ~$4,218, gold (XAU/USD) has extended gains further so far in this week’s trading.

With 2025 representing the best yearly performance in the yellow metals’ history by some margin, traders are left with one burning question:

When will the current rally end?

Let’s break down some of the major macroeconomic themes at play within precious metal markets, alongside some technical analysis and price targets.

Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 15/10/2025

• Breaking above $4,200 earlier today, gold now trades over 56% higher since the beginning of 2025, with an increase from $3,500 to $4,000 only taking thirty-six days
• Acting as the primary catalyst for recent upside, markets are increasingly sure of back-to-back Federal Reserve rate cuts in the upcoming decision, with some sources estimating a ~97% probability
• Otherwise, renewed US-China tariffs announced on Friday by President Trump are adding a safe-haven demand premium to metal pricing

Read previous coverage: Gold (XAU/USD) set to challenge $4,000 as prices renew all-time highs in today’s session - Potential targets and price forecast

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Gold (XAU/USD) yearly performance 1941-2025, OANDA, TradingView, 15/10/2025

Gold breaks above $4,200 with no signs of slowing down

While some thought the current rally must retrace, it would seem that markets need little excuse to push metal pricing higher

Benefiting from a perfect storm of macroeconomic themes, it would seem that there is no shortage of tailwind for the current gold rally.

With markets remaining as bullish as ever, let’s discuss some of the recent macroeconomic developments that are affecting metal pricing:

Renewed ‘tit-for-tat’ US-China tariffs: While there is a long history of trade relations between the United States and China, recent developments leave American levies on Chinese imports at 130%, effective November 1st.

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@realDonaldTrump, Truth Social, 10/10/2025

Using China’s proposed export controls as justification, especially regarding rare earth minerals, Trump has somewhat predictably responded in kind with an unprecedented 100% tariff, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to 130%.

With Trump’s infamous ‘liberation day’ relatively fresh in collective memory, we can expect further global trade disruption to boost precious metal pricing, as seen since Friday’s announcement.

Markets certain of consecutive Fed rate cuts: Having expanded on this in full as part of previous coverage, I’ll be brief: markets are increasingly expecting a 25 basis point cut in the Federal Reserve’s October decision. As a non-yielding asset, this directly benefits gold pricing, especially when considering falling yields on U.S. Treasury bonds.

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CME FedWatch, 15/10/2025

While a ~97% probability of a 25 basis point is a rare level of conviction by the market, some rationale behind this confidence can be offered when considering Jerome Powell’s comments on the US labour market yesterday:

Rising downside risks to employment have shifted our assessment of the balance of risks

Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference in Philadelphia, 14/10/2025

Not only do these comments shift the focus away from inflation, but considering the context of a poor ADP payrolls and missing NFP data, a dovish picture continues to develop.

At the time of writing, the Federal Reserve is expected to meet in fourteen days' time, on October 29th.

Ongoing US government shutdown: To finish, an honourable mention must be made to the current US government shutdown, while admittedly old news, it continues to boost gold pricing by way of increased safe-haven flows. Now ongoing for fifteen days, and especially considering the complications to important government data releases, the longer the shutdown continues, the greater the damage to the US economy will increase exponentially.

Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 15/10/2025

Having touched base on the fundamentals, let’s shift our focus to the technicals, starting with the weekly and finishing with the daily.

Gold (XAU/USD): Weekly (W) chart analysis:

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Gold (XAU/USD) W, OANDA, TradingView, 15/10/2025

With recent price action virtually parabolic, pricing continues in one direction, to the behest of gold bulls.

Currently, volatility remains high, with readings from the ATR approaching five-month highs.

From a classical technical standpoint, the market is confirming a sustained long-term bullish move, with the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs all offering support below current price action.

It should be noted, however, that prices are likely to retrace somewhat in the near future, although no one can be certain exactly when.

As such, the RSI currently trades at its highest level since August 2019, firmly in ‘overbought’ territory. Many will be looking for prices to retreat to get long.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: 61.8% Fib: $4,317
• Price target 2: 50.0% Fib: $4,410
• Support 1: Trendline: $4,040
• Support 2: Psychological level: $4,000

Read more precious metal coverage from MarketPulse: Silver (XAG/USD) squeeze shakes market participants

Gold (XAU/USD): Daily (D1) chart analysis:

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Gold (XAU/USD) D1, OANDA, TradingView, 06/10/2025

With the recent explosive move in metal pricing, it’s no surprise that daily price action continues to trade at the top boundary of the 20-period Bollinger bands.

Price targets and support/resistance levels:

• Price target 1: 78.6% Fib: $4,240
• Support 1: Trendline: $4,079
• Support 2: Psychological key level: $4,000
• Support 3: 20-period SMA: $3,889

Following simple technical analysis theory, this suggests that a retracement towards the midline is inevitable, only being a matter of when.

This goes double when considering that the daily price action has been deemed overbought by the 14-period RSI since early September.

For now, we can consider a retracement towards $4,000 as a potential entry point, with ample support available below.

As traders, we know we shouldn’t try to catch a falling knife, and the same would apply for one shot out of a cannon - some food for thought.

Read more coverage from today’s session: EUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish Continuation

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