North American mid-week Market update – US-China trade tensions are back

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Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.

A strong US dollar and resilient North American equity markets — both on impressive runs since early October — finally met their first major challenge towards the end of last week: the return of US-China trade tensions.

The spark came from a Trump Truth Social post last Friday that reignited fears of a new trade war, triggering a sharp risk-off move across markets.

China has tightened restrictions on rare earth exports, a move that rattled Washington and recreated what seemed to be a new challenge to the American dominance on global trade.

On that aspect, President Trump actually made a few repetitions of BRICS being an attack on the dollar.

Read More:

• US-China trade war scare: What happened Friday and where things stand now
• Silver (XAG/USD) squeeze shakes market participants

Over the weekend and into Monday, sentiment stabilized thanks to a series of calming remarks from the President in another post and the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, whose conciliatory tone was welcomed by investors and helped equities rebound despite volatile opens on Monday and Tuesday.

Still, market participants remain on edge.

The EU has called on the US to coordinate a joint response to Beijing’s latest trade maneuvers — a sign that the geopolitical and economic crosscurrents fueling volatility may only just be warming up.

Markets are also still awaiting for concrete news regarding the US-Canada deal, mentioned to have been in the middle of discussions.

Both Trump and Canadian PM Mark Carney have been preoccupied by the Peace summit for the Middle East throughout the end of last week.

FYI, the Fed Beige Book just got published – It's not a big market mover with nothing alarming noted.

It is still a very nice read, you can access it right here.

Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.

North-American Indices Performance

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North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

Not a single Stock index has managed to withhold the trade tensions scare.

Not only restraining economic activity, such tensions come to challenge the globalized world as we know it which never helps sentiment.

This also comes as many analysts start to show concerns on elevated equity valuations (which haven't seen much retracement since June), further amplifying the tense feeling in Equities.

Dollar Index 8H Chart

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Dollar Index 8H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

The US Dollar has been forming what resembles a higher timeframe range, reacting well to the RSI extremes.

A further, detailed analysis of the Dollar has been published on our site this morning, which I gladly invite you to discover.

Read More: What if there was no trend in the US Dollar ? DXY Outlook

US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

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USD vs other Majors since last Monday, October 15, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

The US Dollar had taken quite the lead on its major counterparts, but the latest currency risk-off put the CHF and the JPY on the front lines (only since Friday).

Keep track of how the current narrative shapes FX flows looking forward.

Things have been and are expected to stay volatile.

Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors

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CAD vs other Majors, October 15, 2025 - Source: TradingView.

The Loonie has been looking for redemption, appreciating from the rise of its neighbor brother, but consequently also getting dragged down throughout the end of last week.

Keep an eye on any news regarding the US-Canada trade deal, which largely is the biggest X factor for the struggling currency.

This would also be of great help to the Canadian Economy which has been struggling for a while and definitely not helped by the tariffs.

Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD

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USDCAD 4H Chart, October 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView

A lack of convicting fundamentals from Canada keep attracting buyers which are largely enjoying the upward trendline.

This one will also be the one to watch for any correction, as the price action now holds largely above 1.40.

Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 1.40 to 1.4050 Psychological resistance (currently testing)
• Tuesday 14 Oct highs 1.40784
• Daily Resistance 1.41 - 1.4150
• April Pivot 1.4250

Support Levels

• Upward trendline line & MA 50 1.3910 to 1.3920
• 1.3925 Aug 22 highs current pivot
• Major Daily Pivot 1.39
• 1.38 Handle +/- 150 pips
• 1.3550 Main 2025 Support

You can also check out our very recent in-detail analysis of the North American pair right here:

USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?

US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week

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US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar

Now midway through the third week of the US government shutdown, Markets have been getting pretty hungry for US data.

The Monthly US CPI will be getting released on October 24th in what was an emergency gathering of a few BLS workers to work on the essential release.

There is still no news on the Jobs data, hence Markets will be waiting for other reports such as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, which gathers much more importance now.

For the rest, focus on key speeches from Fed members (the upcoming cut is well-priced in after Powell's speech from yesterday).

For CAD traders, don't forget to check the Macklem remarks at 13:30 tomorrow, and the Housing Starts on Friday morning 8:30.

How investors and traders can gauge the US labor market amid the BLS shutdown

Safe Trades!

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