Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders – October 16

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The U.S. dollar continued to decline actively against the euro, the pound, and other assets. Statements from Federal Reserve representatives advocating for interest rate cuts led to a dollar sell-off. Traders interpreted these signals as confirmation of a likely shift toward more accommodative monetary policy in the near future, which traditionally puts pressure on the American currency. The euro, the pound, and other assets gained support as rate cuts in the U.S. reduced the attractiveness of American assets. However, it is worth noting that long-term prospects remain uncertain. Economic growth in Europe and the United Kingdom still lags behind that of the United States, and political instability in some eurozone countries adds further risk.

Today's agenda includes eurozone trade balance data, Italy's consumer price index, and later in the day, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. These events will undoubtedly impact the dynamics of currency markets, especially amid current economic uncertainty.

A positive trade balance indicates that exports exceed imports, signaling a healthy economy that produces goods and services in global demand. A negative balance may point to weak domestic demand and a need for stimulus in export sectors. The Italian CPI serves as a key inflation indicator for the euro area's third-largest economy.

Lagarde's speech will be the focal event of the day. Investors will closely watch her tone for hints about future ECB policy. Currently, it seems unlikely that monetary policy will be changed, so attention will be focused more on inflation and the region's economic outlook.

In the first half of the day, attention will center on UK GDP change, industrial production change, and the goods trade balance.

GDP growth is the most critical indicator of a nation's economic health. Positive figures suggest economic expansion and can lead to the pound strengthening. Rising industrial production indicates a healthy economy capable of producing goods and services, while a decline may signal manufacturing difficulties and broader economic weakness. A positive trade balance in goods can also support the pound during this week's ongoing bullish trend.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy is the preferred approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading):

For the EUR/USD pair

Buying on a breakout above 1.1675 may lead to a rise in the euro toward the 1.1715 and 1.1755 areas.

Selling on a breakout below 1.1645 may lead to a fall in the euro toward the 1.1615 and 1.1585 areas.

For the GBP/USD pair

Buying on a breakout above 1.3426 may lead to a rise in the pound toward the 1.3461 and 1.3488 areas.

Selling on a breakout below 1.3400 may lead to a fall in the pound toward the 1.3371 and 1.3336 areas.

For the USD/JPY pair

Buying on a breakout above 151.35 may lead to a rise in the dollar toward the 151.75 and 152.10 areas.

Selling on a breakout below 151.00 may trigger dollar selling toward the 150.65 and 150.35 areas.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversion to the Mean):

For the EUR/USD pair

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1678, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1650, followed by a return above this level.

For the GBP/USD pair

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3446, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3402, followed by a return above this level.

For the AUD/USD pair

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6508, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6480, followed by a return above this level.

For the USD/CAD pair

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4044, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.4017, followed by a return above this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com