Operational complexity emerges as top mining risk for 2026: EY

[Redator]

Adobe Stock image.

The mining sector is entering a new phase of unpredictability as “operational complexity” emerges as the top business risk for the year ahead, according to the latest EY Top 10 Business Risks and Opportunities survey.

Based on responses from 500 senior executives worldwide, the report highlights a marked shift from strategic and geopolitical concerns toward short-term operational challenges that directly affect productivity and costs. The rise of operational complexity—appearing at the top of the risk index for the first time—reflects intensifying pressure on miners to deliver consistent output as ore grades decline, mines deepen and input costs climb.

“Operational complexity is the focus, not just because of uncertainty but because the sector recognizes it must disrupt traditional ways of operating to win. As mines age or are replaced, complexity will inevitably increase, an issue exacerbated by a need to control costs and improve productivity,” said Paul Mitchell, EY Global Mining & Metals Leader.

Shift toward growth

EY also notes that predictable output remains essential for maintaining investor confidence and attracting capital, ranked third amongst the risks. With large-scale mergers proving difficult, mining companies are increasingly prioritizing operational excellence, productivity and technology integration to unlock value from existing assets, its survey found.

For the third consecutive year, mining companies have raised capital allocation toward growth while reducing shareholder payouts. Both traditional and alternative investors are backing this shift—particularly in copper, where a looming supply deficit offers a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity, EY said.

“Investors are backing a switch to growth. With big ticket M&A proving difficult, miners are instead focused on getting the most out of existing assets, enhancing productivity, capital discipline and technology adoption to meet demand and take advantage of higher commodity prices,” Mitchell wrote.

Meanwhile, mining companies are also pursuing smaller acquisitions, joint ventures, and innovative financing models such as royalties, streaming deals, sustainable finance and government incentives, should any of them fit their strategy.

The proposed Anglo-Teck merger illustrates how strategic ambitions, especially in copper, continue to shape deal-making across the sector, EY noted.

License to operate remains central

The industry’s long-standing “license to operate” (LTO) risk ranked fifth in this year’s survey.

As communities increasingly expect companies to fill gaps left by reduced government spending, miners must strengthen local engagement to maintain social capital. Rising resource nationalism and tightening ESG regulations further amplify the strategic importance of maintaining community trust, EY said.

“In some markets, ESG issues have slipped down the agenda, but miners cannot let this compromise their commitment to LTO, particularly their relationships with local communities. It shapes everything from permitting to workforce, to capital and growth,” Mitchell said.

“Miners needs to ensure they do what is right, not just what is regulated—protecting social capital and creating a legacy beyond life of mine.”

Digital transformation & AI

Digital innovation continues to drive transformation across the mining value chain, with 21% of executives planning to boost AI investment by more than 20% over the next year. EY emphasizes that future gains will come from integrating AI and data across the entire business rather than isolated applications.

“AI isn’t something you just set up and forget about in mining,” Mitchell said. “The companies that will get ahead are the ones that align digital initiatives, invest in good people, and build strong foundations for new ideas.

“It’s about building a workplace where technology helps people do their jobs better and brings real results across the business.”

Other risks

The survey also flagged new and evolving challenges:

• Workforce shortages surged to sixth place (from 13th), as skills gaps in engineering, sustainability, and mine planning threaten productivity and safety.
• Geopolitics fell to seventh from third, as miners adapt to tariffs and export controls reshaping critical-mineral supply chains.
• Sustainability dropped from second to ninth, with only 56% of executives confident in meeting nature-positive goals.

“Mining leaders are operating in a more complex environment than ever before. From skills shortages and tariff tensions to sustainability pressures, transformation is no longer optional. Those who act fast—embedding digital tools, building community trust, and rethinking growth—will set the pace for the decade ahead,” Mitchell concluded.