Gold, mining stocks remain underinvested despite gains: Sprott

[Redator]

Gold and gold mining stocks have not only surged past the S&P 500 this year but have also quietly outperformed over the past three, five and even ten years—a remarkable run that has unfolded with limited investor participation.

Yet despite their impressive returns, the sector remains deeply undervalued, according to those at Sprott, with analysts anticipating further gains and making a case for gold to be included in core strategic holdings, much like during the 1960s and 1970s.

Risk diversification

In a note published this week, Sprott’s senior portfolio manager John Hathaway wrote that a short-term correction in precious metals — which is inevitable given their recent performance — should not deter investors from making a long-term play.

According to Hathaway, investing in gold nowadays is almost synonymous with risk diversification. He cited Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson’s recent recommendation of replacing the traditional 60/40 risk mitigation model portfolio with a 60/20/20 portfolio consisting of 60% equities, 20% fixed income and 20% gold.

Earlier this year, Goldman Sachs also suggested that replacing bond exposure with gold could enhance a portfolio’s return over a five-year horizon.

Equities underappreciated

To that end, Sprott’s Hathaway believes that capital allocation to the gold sector is still in its early stages. Specifically, he sees substantial growth upside in gold-related equities, as they remain underappreciated despite outperforming both the metal itself and the S&P 500 index. In the nine months to Sept. 30, gold mining stocks have risen by over 122%, versus 47% in bullion and 14% in the S&P.

“In our opinion, mining stocks are transitioning from pariah status to momentum plays as leverage to a bullish outlook for gold prices. Despite strong gains this year, precious metals equities remain modestly valued,” Hathaway wrote.

However, investor participation in these assets remains tepid, with the Sprott analyst pointing out that the largest gold mining ETF, VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), has seen net outflows in outstanding shares over the past two years.

Hathaway also noted that the gold mining stocks currently have an aggregate market capitalization of approximately $550 billion, which is only 0.43% of the global total. Mining stocks (of which gold mining equities are a small subset) are now at their smallest share of global equities since 1900, he added.

Silver catching up

In addition to mining stocks, Sprott is backing silver as another “catch-up play”, noting that the metal has lagged gold over the past decade.

In his note, Hathaway said that years of deficits in silver have led to extreme market tightness, and silver has been outperforming strongly, with year-to-date gains surpassing that of gold. Despite this recent catch-up performance with respect to gold, the gold-to-silver ratio at 83x still sits above its historic average of 67x, he wrote, highlighting silver’s potential upside.

A breakout to new highs (to compensate for the improved gold price), along with a re-rate of the silver equities to long-term averages (and a catch-up to their gold-producing peers), would be in keeping with the latter half of previous precious metal bull markets, he added.

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