Why Trading Is About Odds, Not Predictions

[Redator]

 

Odds, Not Predictions

 

Risk Game

No one can predict the market. What traders can do is take high-odds trades that have a strong chance of success, rather than chasing risky setups with poor risk/reward ratios.
Trading is a game of probabilities. You win not by being right all the time, but by putting the odds on your side you have a better chance pf being successful..

The first step? Identifying the strong side of the market.

 

Risk Game

The Power of Trading on the Strong Side

Finding the strong side is more than half the battle in putting on winning trades.

The strong side is the side least likely to have stops triggered against your position, the side where you can afford to let your trade breathe and give it time to work.

The weak side, on the other hand, is where odds favor getting stopped out by being forced to exit losing trades quickly when the market moves against them.

The goal is simple: trade on the strong side, where momentum and positioning are in your favor.

Why the Market Lives to Run Stops

Here’s a truth that experienced traders know:

Markets, especially forex and gold, exist in a constant quest to run stops.

In the old days, bank traders controlled the order flow and could see where stops were. Now, algorithms are designed to hunt these same stop levels. Think of them like heat-seeking missiles zeroing in on clusters of stop orders.

Risk Game

GBPUSD 1 HOUR CHARTT  October 14, 2025 (stops run below the prior day’s low)

 

XAUUSD (GOLD) 1 HOUR CHART October 14, 2025  (stops run below low of the day — Hint: note large wick)

 

Common price feed:

• Forex (and gold to a lesser extent) have a common price feed so easier to identify potential stop levels when all market participants are looking at the same chart levels.
• Other markets, especially CFDs, do not have a common price feed so key levels can vary between broker price feeds.

The Key Levels Every Trader Should Watch

There are only two levels that every intraday trader agrees on:

• The high of the day
• The low of the day

These are the levels where stops often cluster, making them prime targets for algos and big players. When the market probes these levels, it’s not random, it’s a test for liquidity. Once the stops above a high or below a low are cleared (or there were no stops to run but offers or bids instead), momentum tends to fade, and the market often shifts direction.

When no more stops are left to run on one side, the market loses interest and either consolidates or reverses, looking nfor stops on the other side.

How to Identify the Strong Side in Real Time

Once you recognize as a fact that the markets hunt stops, you can use that behavior to your advantage.

If the market has cleared stops on one side (say the day’s low), and there’s no incentive to push lower, that side becomes less risky. You can then:

• Buy dips when stops below have been cleared, or
• Sell blips when stops above have been cleared.

This gives you time for your trade to work  instead of constantly worrying about being on the wrong side of the next stop run.

Always Align With the Bigger Picture

No matter your trading timeframe, always check higher timeframes. Mastering Retracements in Trading

This helps you determine whether you’re trading with the trend or against it, and where key reversal or continuation levels lie.

Markets move in layers, understanding the longer-term context can help confirm whether a move is a correction or part of the main trend.

Trading doesn’t require a Ph.D. in physics. It requires discipline, observation, and logic.

By understanding how markets move, why stops are hunted, where stops are more likely to be lying and how to identify the strong side, you can approach trading with clarity and confidence.

Remember: success in trading isn’t about predicting. It’s about stacking the odds in your favor.

 

Risk Game

 

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