Bitcoin Slips Below STH Cost Basis – Why This Could Be A Buy Signal?

[Redator]

Bitcoin price has continued to hover in the range of $106,000-$108,000 over the last 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency is presently displaying some stability following another volatile trading week, which produced a 3.41% price loss. Notably, Bitcoin’s movement amid this corrective phase has triggered an interesting on-chain signal with bullish implications.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Go Underwater, But Historical Data Reads Bullish Signs

In an X post on October 18, popular market analyst, Ali Martinez, shares an important on-chain development. Amid the recent price decline, Martinez notes that Bitcoin slipped below its short-term holders’ (STH) realized price, creating an ideal situation for a market accumulation based on historical data.

For context, the STH realized price represents the average acquisition price of coins held by short-term investors, i.e, wallets that have held BTC for less than 155 days. Typically, when the market price dips below this level, it indicates that new market entrants are underwater, signaling local capitulation and short-term fear in the market

Based on the Glassnode data shared by Martinez, Bitcoin fell below its STH realized price on October 14 during its latest price correction. While such developments usually trigger temporary selling pressure, historical data show it has also become a cue for strategic buyers. 

In particular, the price dip below the STH realized price appears to align with strong rebound points in the market. Notably, the chart above shows four prior instances (May 2023, November 2023, August 2024, and May 2025), where Bitcoin’s descent below the STH realized price was followed by substantial recoveries. Martinez explains that this price dip usually provides a good opportunity for market accumulation, thereby fueling future price rallies. Interestingly, the broader Bitcoin market remains dominated by long-term holders, who are potentially utilizing this price pocket to strengthen their holdings, thus maintaining the present bullish structure.

Bull Market Still On 

In other news, a fellow market analyst with the username Titan of Crypto has recently stated that the Bitcoin bull market remains active amid bearish speculations following the latest price drops. Titan of Crypto has hinged their positive market insight on the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a pivotal level in determining price direction in the current market cycle 

The analyst notes that as long as Bitcoin’s weekly candle holds above this level, the broader bull market continues to stay active. At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $106,800, reflecting a minor 0.40% decline in the past day. Meanwhile, daily trading volume is down by 61% and valued at $39.3 billion.