Crypto Bulls Beware: Friday Could Be Crucial — Here’s Why

[Redator]

A rare confluence of macro catalysts will put risk assets—and by extension crypto—on edge this Friday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed it will publish the delayed September Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, October 24, even as most federal data remain frozen by the ongoing government shutdown. In a short notice, the agency underscored the exceptionality of the move and added that “no other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services.”

Crypto Bulls On Alert

The timing is unusual on two counts. First, CPI is rarely a Friday print; The Kobeissi Letter noted via X that it would be the first Friday CPI since January 2018. Second, it lands five days before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on October 28–29, compressing the policy-reaction window for the only marquee data.

As Adam Kobeissi framed it: “Something unusual is happening this week: On Friday, we are receiving CPI inflation data DURING the US government shutdown… Not only is it 5 days before the October 29th Fed meeting, but it is the first time CPI data will be reported on a Friday since January 2018.”

Against that backdrop, crypto strategist Nik Patel captured prevailing risk-tone logic in a morning note via X: with scarce data in a “speech-heavy” week, any print that leans above survey “will be of significance.”

He argued: “Would even expect a moderately above consensus inflation print to be welcomed by the markets — I would like to see inflation breakevens bottom out here and turn higher again (and make no mistake the Fed will still be cutting into this and this combination would be bullish risk). Growth, Inflation continues to be what I expect of the next 6 months but right now we’re chewing through a period of fears around both.”

The Macro Backdrop

To understand why this particular CPI matters for crypto assets, consider the near-term inflation trend and the state of the Fed debate. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August after 0.2% in July; the year-over-year rate accelerated to 2.9% from 2.7%. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY.

Back-to-back prints earlier in the summer had suggested headline inflation was stabilizing in the high-2s: June CPI ran at 2.7% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly gain, and July matched 2.7% YoY while core posted its largest monthly increase since January. The August re-acceleration nudged debate away from a straight-line disinflation narrative and toward a more nuanced view—one sensitive to tariffs.

Related Reading: Crypto Bulls Smell Blood: SOFR–RRP Spread Hints QT Pivot By October

The Fed preview is therefore unusually binary—even if the meeting dates themselves are conventional. The central bank’s October 28–29 gathering is live, with rates markets leaning toward another quarter-point cut, followed by a more contested December. But the data blackout has amplified CPI’s leverage over the policy narrative, which is why a single release can swing the perceived odds of both the October move’s size and the guidance for year-end.

All of this collides with crypto’s macro-beta reality. When liquidity expectations improve—via easier financial conditions and falling real yields—large-cap tokens typically outperform; when policy turns cautious, crypto’s duration-like characteristics can cut the other way. That’s why the market is latched onto the shutdown-Friday CPI quirk.

The bottom line for crypto participants is straightforward. Friday’s CPI is not just “another inflation print.” It is a rare Friday release, arriving in a data drought five days before an FOMC decision, with PMIs and sentiment hitting hours later. If it cools meaningfully, easing expectations could firm into month-end.

If it surprises hot and re-validates August’s firmness, markets may still attempt to spin it as growth-positive—as Nik Patel suggested—so long as the Fed signals it will keep cutting. Either way, by compressing signal and policy into a single news cycle, the shutdown has turned one morning into the fulcrum for October’s crypto narrative.

At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.71 trillion.