EUR/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

Today, the EUR/CAD pair fell below the key 1.6300 level and below the confluence of the 9- and 14-day EMAs, gradually shifting momentum in favor of the bears.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's quarterly business outlook surveys, published on Monday, confirmed market expectations of a possible rate cut later this month, putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. In addition, the decline in global oil prices continues to undermine the loonie, as the commodity-linked nature of Canada's currency contributes to its weakness—serving as one of the factors supporting EUR/CAD. However, today's positive Core CPI data from Canada managed to offset some of the euro's strength. On the other hand, the euro continues to show weakness after S&P Global Ratings downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+ due to growing fiscal risks. At the same time, the U.S. dollar's advance today has added further pressure on the euro, leaving the single currency doubly squeezed against the Canadian dollar.From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart remains neutral. Prices have dropped below the confluence of the 9- and 14-day EMAs, finding support at 1.6280. Below this level, the next support lies at 1.6250, with a key downside level at 1.6166, below the psychological 1.6200 level. If bulls fail to defend this level, they will have no chance of recovery.

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