REDATOR Redator Postado 12 horas atrás REDATOR Denunciar Share Postado 12 horas atrás Key takeaways Gold’s sharp correction: XAU/USD plunged over 8% from its all-time high of US$4,381, marking its steepest drop since August 2020.Short-term bullish reversal signs: Technical indicators, including bullish “Hammer” candlestick formations and RSI divergence, signal potential rebound momentum.Medium-term uptrend intact: Gold remains supported by a sustained downtrend in the 10-year US Treasury real yield below 1.87%.Key levels to watch: Support sits at US$4,056/4,000; resistance zones at US$4,267, US$4,380, and US$4,424/4,455. Gold (XAU/USD) has experienced a volatile movement in the past three sessions. The precious yellow metal has managed to reverse the 1.7% loss it incurred last Friday, 17 October 2025, and rallied by 2.4% on Monday, 22 October 2025, to print a fresh record high of US$4,381.Thereafter, gold (XAU/USD) recorded a swift decline on Tuesday, 21 October 2025, where it tumbled by 6.3% on an intraday basis, but it pared back some losses to close at US$4,125 with a daily loss of -5.3%, still a significant occurrence as yesterday’s loss was the worst since August 2020.Yesterday’s swift decline is likely due to stop-losses triggered on short-term leveraged long positions on gold (XAU/USD), where it has gained “attraction” after the bullish breakout triggered on 29 August 2025 from the prior 4-month of “Ascending Triangle” range configuration that led to a steep bullish impulsive up move sequences in the recent two months.Interestingly, longer-term technical elements and one key macro factor are still suggesting that the medium-term and major uptrend phases of gold (XAU/USD) remain intact.A lower long-term US real interest rate acts as a tailwind for gold zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 10-year US Treasury real yield with Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term & major trends as of 22 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) The 10-year US Treasury real yield (excluding 10-year breakeven inflation rate) medium-term downtrend remains intact as it remained below its 50-day moving average and 1.87% key medium-term resistance (see Fig. 1).Based on intermarket analysis, a cap on any further rebound in the 10-year US Treasury real yield below 1.87% and a break below 1.66% key intermediate support reduces the opportunity costs of holding gold (XAU/USD) as it is a non-income-bearing asset, in turn, creating a further positive feedback loop back into the price actions of gold (XAU/USD).Interestingly, the prior decline in the 10-year US Treasury real yield from 2.05% on 1 August 2025 to 1.79% on 28 August 2025 coincided with gold (XAU/USD)’s bullish breakout from its former 4-month “Ascending Triangle” range configuration in place since April 2025.Let’s now examine the latest short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), relevant key elements, and key levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspectivePreferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Bullish reversal at US$4,056/4,000 key support zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 22 Oct 2025 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,056/4,000 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above US$4,203 is likely for the bullish reversal scenario to gain traction for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$4,267, US$4,380 (current all-time high area), and US$4,424/4,455 (see Fig. 2).Key elements Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a swift decline of 8.6% from its current all-time high of US$4,381 printed on Monday, 20 October 2025, to a current intraday low of US$4,004 on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, at the time of writing.The 8% plus rapid decline in the price actions of gold (XAU/USD) has led the hourly RSI momentum indicator of gold to hit an extreme oversold level of 19.61on Wednesday, 22 October 2025, and subsequently, flashed out a bullish divergence condition.The price action of Gold (XAU/USD) has formed an hourly bullish “Hammer” candlestick in today’s Asia session, right after a retest of its rising 20-day moving average. Also, it has formed an impending daily “Hammer” candlestick. These observations suggest a potential capitulation of bearish momentum.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the US$4,056/4,000 key medium-term support invalidates the bullish reversal scenario for gold (XAU/USD), where a medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline may unfold to expose the next intermediate supports at US$3,943 and US$3,895/3,864 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc. Citar Link para o comentário Compartilhar em outros sites More sharing options...
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