Bitcoin: Will It Fall Below $100,000?

[Ben Graham]

Analysts at Standard Chartered are warning of an "inevitable" short-term drop in Bitcoin below $100,000. Paradoxically, this decline may represent the last opportunity for large investors to enter the market ahead of the next bullish impulse.

Less than three weeks ago, the same analysts projected Bitcoin to reach $135,000 by Q3, with a possible all-time high of $200,000 by year-end. Now, however, they caution that a temporary break below six figures is likely.

Macroeconomic Pressure vs. Crypto Markets: Fear, Trade Wars, and the Dollar

The $126,000 peak recorded on October 6 was not only a local top but also symbolized a shift in market phase. Standard Chartered notes that the asset sell-off began amid rising fears of a new trade war between the U.S. and China.

Fear fuels demand for the U.S. dollar—and acts as poison for risk assets. Bitcoin is no exception.

With no signs of liquidity returning to traditional markets and all expectations of monetary easing being pushed out, Bitcoin now faces a difficult backdrop in which its risk premium continues to increase.

Below $100,000—But Not for Long: A Window of Opportunity

Standard Chartered does not see the coming dip as a threat but rather an opportunity. The market "needs to flush out weak hands" before it can move higher. Those who can buy the dip may find themselves well-positioned going into Q1.

The bank highlights three indicators to watch for a potential bottom:

Capital Flows Between Gold and Bitcoin

Last week's gold sell-off coincided with an intraday rise in Bitcoin. If this inverse relationship holds, it may signal a renewed capital rotation from traditional safe havens into crypto.

Dovish Shift by the Fed

Even a neutral signal from the Federal Reserve would be interpreted as bullish for risk assets. Any sign of halting quantitative tightening could boost market liquidity and revive digital asset prices.

Technical Resilience

Despite corrections, Bitcoin remains above its 50-week moving average, which was near $25,000 in 2023. This uptrend baseline highlights the underlying structural strength of the bull market.

Options vs. Futures: Signs of Market Maturity

While market participants argue over short-term price targets, Bitcoin's market structure is evolving.

For the first time, the total open interest in Bitcoin options has outpaced that in futures: $108 billion vs. $68 billion, according to CheckonChain.

While speculative traders once leaned heavily on highly leveraged futures, attention is now shifting to more flexible risk management tools. Options allow for volatility hedging without triggering forced liquidations—an indication of institutional growth and risk sophistication.

The launch of options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by BlackRock in November 2024 marked a crucial step in Bitcoin's institutional transformation.

October: A Break in the Gold–Bitcoin Correlation

October was unusual: gold and Bitcoin moved in opposite directions. While the precious metal posted nearly a 10% gain, Bitcoin fell by 6%. This broke the long-standing "digital gold vs. physical gold" narrative.

In reality, the divergence reflected unrelated factors. The October 21–22 gold drop was driven by overheating in precious metals, while the crypto market had already priced in its own "pain point" earlier with a 17% drawdown from local highs. In other words, Bitcoin led the correction phase.

Different Catalysts, Different Timelines

Gold responds primarily to macro-level decisions by central banks. Bitcoin, however, reacts to a variety of internal drivers—leverage, ETF flows, and on-chain redistribution. This asynchronous behavior is what makes the crypto market unique; it operates on its own timeline.

Notably, tokenized gold on platforms like Bybit (XAUTUSDT) mirrored spot market movements without discrepancies or anomalies—an important signal for traders using cross-hedging strategies within the crypto ecosystem. The infrastructure has matured enough to maintain transparency, even during shocks.

What This Means for Traders

Bitcoin is entering a zone of turbulence. Strong hands remain active, while institutional players are increasing exposure via options instead of futures. In the short term, further volatility is expected, and another dip to the $95,000–$97,000 range remains possible.

However, over a 6–12 month horizon, both the macroeconomic cycle and growing institutional involvement suggest that the long-term bullish trend is still intact.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com