USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

[Ben Graham]

The USD/CAD currency pair has fallen below the key level of 1.400. The Canadian dollar is strengthening against the US dollar amid rising oil prices. Oil quotes have climbed to nearly two-week highs following the introduction of US sanctions against major Russian oil companies, which has supported the Canadian dollar — a currency that traditionally correlates with commodity prices. It is important to note that Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the United States, and rising prices for "black gold" generally have a positive impact on the Canadian currency.According to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the long-standing process of close economic integration between Canada and the United States has been completed. Market participants should closely monitor the ongoing situation regarding persistent trade tensions between the two countries.

On the US dollar side, President Donald Trump rejected a request from leading Democratic lawmakers for a meeting during the four-week US government shutdown. The suspension of key economic data releases — including reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau — creates additional challenges for the Federal Reserve in making monetary policy decisions.

Nevertheless, the market expects the Fed to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its meetings in October and December. These expectations are putting pressure on the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. According to LSEG data, federal funds futures imply a 97% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the next meeting.

Going forward, the dynamics of the USD/CAD pair will depend on macroeconomic statistics. Particular attention should be paid to Canadian retail sales data. Retail sales are forecast to rise by 1.0% month-over-month in August, while core retail sales (excluding autos) are expected to increase by 1.2%. If the actual figures exceed forecasts, the Canadian dollar could gain short-term support.

It is also worth paying attention to upcoming US economic data releases to identify better trading opportunities in the USD/CAD pair.

From a technical standpoint, although the pair has dropped below the key 1.400 level, the potential for growth has not been lost. This is indicated by positive oscillators on the daily chart, and the 9-day EMA remains above the 14-day EMA. In addition, prices are trading above the 200-day SMA, which serves as important support. If prices fall below it, the bulls may lose their upside potential. Once the pair breaks above the 1.400 resistance level, prices could reach the next resistance at 1.430 on their way toward the 1.410 round level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com