Understand US Shutdown and Industrial Blackout in Europe Confirmed

[Igor Pereira]

Traders, the calendar doesn't lie. We are moving towards a "Perfect Storm" of geopolitical and fiscal volatility. The latest institutional data confirm that February 2026 will not only be volatile; it will be a test of resistance for the global financial system.

By Igor Pereira Financial Market Analyst

We have two fatal deadlines ("deadlines") converging simultaneously, creating a systemic risk scenario that Wall Street algorithms have already begun to prioritize.

Below is the technical analysis of the two triggers that will dominate the market in the coming weeks.

The countdown for the United States government's halt is coming to an end. Current government funding (CR) officially expires on 30 January 2026.

• The Scenario: Congress has only this week to avoid the blackout. If there is no agreement by midnight on Friday, federal agencies close, non-essential payments delay and the disclosure of crucial economic data (such as Payroll) is suspended.

• The "Armadilla" of 2026: Unlike previous years, the fiscal year of 2026 faces unique budgetary pressures due to the end of previous spending ceilings, which encourages an intense political battle for larger budgets.

• Market Impact: The market hates uncertainty. As we approach the 30th, the expectation is that the Dollar (DXY) There is a need to ensure that the European Union is able to make progress in the future. Gold (XAU/USD) Should attract massive flows of refuge.

While Washington fights for money, Europe fights for energy. The natural gas crisis is the death sentence for European industry this end of winter.

• The Alarming Data: Europe's gas stocks have fallen to about 50% in mid-January, visibly below the seasonal average, pressed by a severe cold wave and continuous geopolitical tensions.

• The Weakest Link (Germany): The situation in Germany is critical. The country entered the winter with already low stocks and, with current temperatures, models indicate that reservoirs can reach emergency levels in just 14 days.

• The blackout: Without enough gas, the German chemical and heavy industry runs the risk of forced rationing. This is not just a technical recession; it is an industrial paralysis.

We have a paralyzed government in the world's largest economy (USA) and a paralyzed industry in the second largest (EU). The convergence of these events creates clear opportunities for Risk-off.

• Sale (Short) EUR/USD: O Shutdown the US is a political problem (resolvable with a signature), but the lack of gas in Europe is a physical problem (without immediate solution). The Euro should bleed more than the Dollar in this risk aversion scenario.

• Buy (Long) Gold: It's the ultimate asset for this environment. Gold does not need a functioning government in the US or natural gas in Germany to maintain its value. It is the only real protection against tax incompetence and the scarcity of resources.

• Sales (Short) DAX 40: The German index has not yet fully undermined the risk of imminent industrial rationing. The fall potential (low Gap) is violent.

Politicians in Washington and Brussels are playing "who blinks first", and the bill will arrive in the first week of February. The volatility must explode from Wednesday (28/01).

My recommendation: Monitor the closing of January 30th. If the US Congress fails, the Opening Gap the next Sunday will be historic.

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[Christian Silva]

Of 0<>10, what's the government's chance of failing?