Dogecoin Sets A New Record In A Key Cycle Indicator: Bottom In?

[Ben Graham]

Dogecoin has pushed a cycle-style positioning metric to a level never seen before in its history, and the chart’s context suggests the market has only been in comparable territory twice, both times near major cycle lows. Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson said DOGE has now crossed a key threshold in his “Number of Days Spent at a Profit” indicator.

“For the first time, Dogecoin has accumulated more than 1,100 days in the past where the price was higher than today’s level,” Wedson wrote on X alongside the chart. “The Number of Days Spent at a Profit measures how many historical days traded above the current price, reflecting market memory and the aggregated positioning of holders over time. The higher the value, the longer the historical period that was traded at levels above the current price.”

The indicator is straightforward: it counts how many prior days in DOGE’s trading history printed prices above the current level. A higher reading implies today’s price sits below a larger share of Dogecoin’s historical “tape,” which can be interpreted as an expanded footprint of prior trading levels above spot—what Wedson calls “market memory.”

What This Could Mean For Dogecoin

The chart adds an important historical tell. Before this latest surge toward the 1,100+ day milestone, Dogecoin only moved above the 800-day level twice. Those two instances occurred around the March 2020 bottom and the October 2023 bottom, according to the chart and Wedson’s framing.

In both historical cases, the move above 800 days coincided with a major turning point that was followed by parabolic runs in subsequent months. From the March 2020 low to the November 2021 peak, DOGE rallied from about $0.0011 to its all-time high near $0.76, a gain of more than 65,000%. From the October 2023 low to December 2024, DOGE rose roughly 750%, climbing from about $0.0569 to $0.4846.

Wedson emphasized that this is not a signal about an intraday swing but a longer-horizon condition. “This is a structural cycle metric, not just a short-term move,” he said—positioning the new 1,100+ day milestone as a regime-level datapoint about where today’s price sits versus Dogecoin’s historical distribution.

The open question from here is whether this unprecedented reading will behave like prior extremes, where elevated “days above current price” aligned with cycle lows, or whether the market’s current structure breaks that historical rhyme.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.09705.