Why XRP’s 0.16 Leverage Floor Ends The Era Of The Flash Crash – And the Hope for a Quick Recovery

[Ben Graham]

XRP continues to struggle near the $1.33 level as persistent selling pressure weighs on sentiment across the broader crypto market. Momentum has weakened notably in recent sessions, with buyers showing limited conviction while Bitcoin remains range-bound and liquidity conditions stay tight. This lack of directional clarity has kept altcoins under pressure, and XRP has not been immune to the broader defensive posture currently shaping digital asset markets.

Recent analysis from a CryptoQuant contributor provides additional context on the derivatives side. According to the data, the Estimated Leverage Ratio — a metric tracking speculative positioning in futures markets — has declined sharply following a previous spike and now sits near 0.16. Both the 30-day and 50-day simple moving averages of this indicator are trending downward, signaling a sustained reduction in leveraged exposure.

This shift suggests that the market is no longer heavily overpositioned. Speculative traders appear to have been largely flushed out during recent volatility, reducing the likelihood of cascading forced liquidations. With neither excessively long nor short positioning dominating derivatives markets, conditions have become comparatively calmer. While this does not guarantee an immediate recovery, the normalization of leverage could help moderate selling pressure and allow price action to stabilize if broader market sentiment improves.

Leverage Reset Signals Cooling Speculation In XRP Market

The report further emphasizes that Binance plays a critical role in interpreting XRP market dynamics because it remains the dominant liquidity hub for derivatives trading, both in terms of volume and open interest. Much of the aggressive long and short positioning that drives short-term price movements in XRP tends to originate there.

As a result, shifts in leverage on Binance often reflect global risk appetite in real time rather than isolated exchange-specific behavior. While leverage changes on smaller venues may remain localized, significant moves on Binance can trigger broader liquidation chains and momentum breaks across the market.

In this context, the current low leverage environment carries particular significance. The 0.16 leverage floor confirms a total speculative flush rather than a mere capital rotation. Interestingly, the simultaneous decline in leverage alongside weakening price action may not necessarily be bearish. Elevated leverage during a downtrend typically increases the risk of cascading liquidations, whereas the current environment indicates a cleaner positioning landscape.

Low leverage conditions often create a more stable foundation for institutional participation, as large players generally prefer entering markets with reduced volatility and balanced positioning. Still, without a clear pickup in spot demand, XRP may continue drifting in a controlled, slightly downward range as the market gradually resets expectations.

XRP Price Holds Weak Structure As Downtrend Persists

XRP continues to trade under sustained pressure, with the chart showing a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the late-2025 peak near the $3.50 region. The latest price action around $1.33 reflects a prolonged corrective phase rather than a short-term pullback, with momentum remaining weak and recovery attempts repeatedly fading.

Technically, XRP is trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages on this timeframe, all of which are sloping downward. This alignment typically signals persistent bearish structure and suggests trend continuation unless price can reclaim these levels decisively. The 200-period average near the $2 zone now represents a major overhead resistance band.

Volume patterns also show declining participation compared with the rally phase, indicating reduced speculative enthusiasm. Occasional spikes appear during sharp selloffs, which often reflect reactive liquidation rather than fresh accumulation.

Structurally, the $1.20–$1.30 region appears to be the nearest support cluster based on recent price stabilization. A breakdown below that zone could expose lower liquidity pockets, potentially accelerating downside volatility. Conversely, sustained acceptance back above roughly $1.60 would be required to neutralize immediate bearish momentum.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com