Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
7005 tópicos neste fórum
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Friday's statement by U.S. President Donald Trump on imposing a 100% tariff on all categories of Chinese goods triggered a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrency and equity markets. The total capitalization of the crypto market—comprising 9,510 coins—fell by 6.16% on the day, with another similar drop over the weekend. Combined, this amounted to a 13.5% decline at its lowest point. By Monday morning, the market had recovered about half of those losses. The S&P 500 stock index dropped by 2.71%. The yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined from 3.76% to 3.64%. It's somewhat surprising, then, that the euro gained 57 pips during Friday's session. The Australian dollar, by c…
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So, the U.S. government shutdown is now a fact. However, the market — as expected — did not panic or start "selling America." On the contrary, the S&P 500 rose by 0.34%, and the U.S. dollar index slipped by a symbolic 0.03%. What did change meaningfully were U.S. Treasury yields — the 5-year yield fell from 3.73% to 3.67%, and the 10-year yield from 4.15% to 4.09%. During the previous shutdown in December 2018, the markets also remained calm; equities continued to rally, and although the euro jumped 200 points at the peak of fear, it ended the 35-day shutdown only 60 points higher. Treasury yields also steadily declined back then. What's different this time is that th…
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EUR/USD The sideways movement of the past week resulted in a downside gap today. However, this was largely influenced by a more significant 200-point gap in the USD/JPY pair, caused by Sanae Takaichi's election as head of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party over the weekend. A protege of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she is now expected to become Japan's next prime minister. This development indirectly impacted EUR/USD, but the euro may still strengthen over the course of the new week. The upper boundary of the current range is marked by the October 1 high at 1.1779. A consolidation above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1…
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On Monday, the euro failed to close the opening gap. The price did not consolidate below the daily MACD line, and a long lower shadow formed—a sign that the market intends to close the gap in the near future. The price may rise further without signaling a stronger bullish rally and could reach the key level of 1.1779. A break above this level would open the way toward the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1910. However, the Marlin oscillator remains unwilling to return to positive territory, which suggests that the potential for a price rally is somewhat limited. As a result, the 1.1910 target may stay out of reach. On the 4-hour chart, the weakness of the b…
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At the end of yesterday's trading session, the euro fell by 53 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price has already dropped another 30 pips, approaching the target level of 1.1605. The Marlin oscillator is also declining after rebounding from the zero line. Even on the weekly chart, divergences are present and Marlin remains in negative territory. Formally, the price action is developing in line with our primary scenario, under which the euro is expected to continue its long-term decline toward the key target at 1.1066 — the May low — which nearly coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally that began in January this year. However, this otherwise cle…
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EUR/USD Yesterday, the euro reached and tested the target support level at 1.1605 before reversing upward, likely with the intention of closing Monday's price gap. The immediate growth target is the signal-interim level at 1.1779. A breakout above this level would open the path toward the upper boundary of the price channel near the 1.1910 mark. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has formed its own upward channel, and the current reversal is occurring from its lower boundary — a technical confirmation of bullish momentum building. The first growth target is the MACD line at 1.1687, followed by 1.1779. On the four-hour chart, the resistance from the MACD line coinci…
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EUR/USD The euro made a false breakout above the daily MACD line (gray square). Formally, it is believed that the dollar strengthened due to risk-off moves by investors following the downward revision of last year's employment data. From March 2024 to March 2025, 900,000 fewer jobs were created, and now this is being seen as a crisis situation. But this is merely a pretext, as the dollar had already been strengthening since the morning. We believe investors continue to close positions in anticipation of a hawkish stance from the Fed at the September 17 meeting. The daily trading volume was slightly above the average of the past month and a half. The euro is now targeting…
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EUR/USD Yesterday's US Producer Price Index (PPI) data had little effect on the dollar (Dollar Index -0.01%) but notably shifted the probability of a December rate cut to 3.75% from 58.6% to 62.5%. The August PPI came in at 2.6% versus 3.1% y/y in July (revised down from 3.3%), while Core PPI showed 2.8% y/y versus 3.4% previously (revised down from 3.7%). This is quite a significant drop in the indices, but overall it was due to August's collapse in PPI from 0.7% m/m (0.9% before revision) to -0.1% m/m. Market participants generally judged that the PPI drop in August would only affect overall inflation by winter, which explains the current 62.5% probability of a rate cut…
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So, yesterday's ECB meeting, as expected, delivered no new information—except "wait and see." But the rise in US CPI for August triggered a flurry of paradoxical articles in the business media, along with increased bets on the Fed cutting rates three times by year-end. Core CPI stayed at 3.1% y/y, while headline CPI rose from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y. The main stir came from jobless claims, which jumped during the week from 235k to 263k. We believe market participants are headed for a rude awakening when the FOMC announces it expects not even two rate cuts, since they've already signaled just one, in September. In fact, the only scenario that could force the Fed to cut rates thre…
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On Friday and this morning, the euro quote remains within Thursday's range. Since September 8, the price has been coiling around the MACD indicator line, which is sloping downward. The Marlin oscillator is tending downward, even while in positive territory. The euro is under market pressure ahead of the Fed meeting. A similar sideways movement has been seen on the S&P 500 and government bond yields over the past week — markets are awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decision. Our previously stated forecast calls for a decline in the euro, since, along with a rate cut, the FOMC is also expected to send a hawkish signal — there will be no three cuts by year-end, and ev…
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Yesterday, the euro made an impressive jump upward by 105 pips, reaching the upper boundary of the price channel precisely at 1.1879. Economic data out of Europe and the US were solid: in Europe, the key figures were the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, while in the US, industrial production, retail sales, and Q3 GDP forecast (3.4% vs. 3.1% previous estimate). If it weren't for market nervousness about the expectation of three Fed rate cuts, the dollar would have definitely strengthened. This time, however, even a slight increase in European data (sentiment for September 26.1 vs. 25.1 in August; July industrial production +0.3% vs. -0.6% in June) was met with extra enthusi…
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EUR/USD Following yesterday's Federal Reserve meeting, the rate was cut by the expected 0.25%. However, neither FOMC members nor Jerome Powell himself showed a hawkish stance, which is why the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by only 0.38% — a modest reaction for such an event. The dot plot indicated the intention to cut rates two more times before year-end. In his remarks, Powell even slightly downplayed the inflationary risks stemming from Trump's tariffs, while the Fed raised its PCE forecast for next year from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y. Indirectly, these steps smooth out the tension in the confrontation with Trump. We allow for a scenario in which inflation picks up again be…
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The euro has been gradually retreating from its September 17 high. Typically, after the central bank meetings are over and no new trends have been set, investors shift their focus to the balance of economic indicators, which guide monetary policy. Sometimes it seems that retail sales or building permits can't move the exchange rate by 1%, but these releases provide longer-term momentum that can underpin trends for months ahead. The absence of an immediate market response to the Fed's rate change could turn into a medium-term decline for the euro. A cycle of important economic news kicks off next week. For a medium-term decline in EUR/USD to begin, the price needs to secu…
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Yesterday, the euro dropped by 76 pips on rising volumes, as the S&P 500 fell by 0.28%. Market participants paid closer attention to Jerome Powell's remarks and realized there would be no two rate cuts by year-end. Investors, out of inertia, kept October cut expectations high (97.4%), but reduced the probability for December from 81.3% to 72.5%. US Treasury yields increased slightly. Today, data will be released on August durable goods orders (forecast: -0.3%), the final Q2 GDP estimate (expected unchanged at 3.3% y/y), weekly jobless claims (expected up from 231k to 233k), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 (forecast 2.5% versus 3.5% pr…
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EUR/USD Yesterday's U.S. economic indicators came in better than expected. Q2 GDP was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, August durable goods orders increased by 2.9% versus forecasts of -0.3%, the core personal consumption expenditures price index for Q2 came in at 2.6% versus the 2.5% estimate, and even the trade balance improved to -$85.5 billion from -$103.6 billion, with a forecast of -$95.7 billion—this is the best figure in the past two years. The dollar index rose by 0.71%, the euro lost 71 pips, and broke through the daily timeframe support indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator settled in bearish territory. The price is approaching the target support at 1.1605. A fir…
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EUR/USD The euro looked almost hopeless on Thursday, September 25, but found support from the renewed strength of the stock and commodity markets. The S&P 500 added 0.59% on Friday, gold rose 1.00%, oil increased by 0.04%, copper rose 0.29%, and the euro itself gained 34 pips. During today's Pacific session, the price moved above the MACD line resistance on the daily timeframe, and the Marlin oscillator entered positive territory. Once the price consolidates above the MACD line and the Marlin oscillator holds in positive territory, the euro will open the way toward the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1914. This week, moderately optimistic U.S. industrial sec…
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EUR/USD Yesterday's bullish impulse in the single currency proved to be weak. The price tried to move further away from the MACD line after breaking above it, but by the end of the day, the upper shadow was larger than the candle body. The Marlin oscillator stalled at the neutral zero line, and this morning even hinted at a reversal downward. The price is likely to remain in a sideways trend until the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. Even a consolidation below the MACD line (1.1708) would not be a signal for a decline toward the target of 1.1605; the market is simply waiting for Friday's data. A similar situation occurred a month ago, when the euro began to mo…
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EUR/USD The euro managed to rise above the MACD indicator line and hold above it. The Marlin oscillator is rising, and the price may reach the upper boundary of the price channel around 1.1880. Today, US producer inflation data will be released; tomorrow, the CPI, and on Thursday, the European Central Bank will present its updated monetary policy outlook. The extension of the rate-cutting pause, as well as overheated expectations for the Federal Reserve (three cuts by year-end), are currently pushing the euro up. But here's the issue: the forecast for US CPI in August is 2.9% y/y versus 2.7% y/y in July. With this level of inflation—which brings us back to January of thi…
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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1645 – 1.1666, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and continued the downward move that has been observed in recent weeks. Consolidation below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594 allows us to expect further decline toward the next corrective level at 76.4% – 1.1517. A consolidation above 1.1594 would favor the euro and open the way for growth toward the 1.1645 – 1.1656 level. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend currently remains …
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- 27 👀 Traders
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the Fibonacci level 61.8%– 1.1594. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the resistance level 1.1645 – 1.1656. A rebound from this zone will favor the U.S. dollar and the resumption of a decline toward the corrective level 76.4% – 1.1517. Consolidation above the zone will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous wave's peak, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" for no…
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- 25 👀 Traders
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to rise after bouncing from the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. Thus, on Monday this process may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A consolidation of quotes below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. dollar and a further decline toward the support level of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous wave's low, while the last upward wave did not break the previous peak. Thus, the trend currently remains "bearish." The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for the Fed's monetary policy support bullish traders, so I expect…
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- 215 👀 Traders
On Monday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its decline against forecasts but during the day still reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. Thus, today the growth process may continue toward the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802. A new close below 1.1695 would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a fresh decline toward the support zone of 1.1637–1.1645. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous wave's peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Therefore, the trend remains "bearish" for now. Recent labor market data and shifting ex…
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- 19 👀 Traders
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718 on the new Fibonacci grid, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and fell, consolidating below the support zone of 1.1645–1.1656. Thus, the decline may continue on Wednesday toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% at 1.1594. A rebound of the pair's rate from this level or a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would work in favor of the euro and some growth. Consolidation below the 1.1594 level will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next retracement level of 76.4% at 1.1517. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wa…
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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the support level of 1.1645–1.1656, then rebounded from this level, and this morning – another rebound. Thus, the decline in quotes may continue toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594. A consolidation of the pair above the 1.1645–1.1656 level would favor the European currency and some growth toward the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous one, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" for now. The latest labor market data and the revised Fed …
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How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions EUR/USD in Transition: How Smart Trading Bots Adapt to Shifting Market Conditions Few currency pairs respond as sharply, or as inconsistently, to shifting global narratives as EUR/USD. Over the past two years, it’s moved through cycles of breakout rallies, grinding consolidations, and policy-fueled whiplash. Traders navigating uncertainty. What worked one quarter falls flat the next. Staying consistent in that environment means more than reacting quickly. It means reading structure, spotting transitions early, and executing without hesitation. That’s where modern trading systems, from AI-driven bots to rul…
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