Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12019 tópicos neste fórum
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The US stock market is drawing investors like a magnet. It's hard to resist when, for the first time since November 2021, all four major indices—S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000—close at record highs. Such an event has happened only 25 times in the 21st century. Combined with record treasury holdings by non-residents, it's clear that American exceptionalism is alive and well—though with a new twist. Foreign investors collectively own $20 trillion in US-issued stocks and $14 trillion in bonds, including Treasuries. Their exodus in response to Donald Trump's tariffs drove the S&P 500 down to a 15-month low in early April. Since then, the prevailing m…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Fame does not last forever. What seems perfect today becomes ordinary tomorrow. Any sign of weakness from a favorite transforms into a catastrophe. As we approach the end of 2025, there is a reevaluation of views on artificial intelligence and related technology stocks in the US equity market. The mixed dynamics of stock indices suggest that investors have stopped buying dips, an alarming sign for the bull market. The Dow Jones Index set its 17th record in 2025 on news of the government resuming operations, while the S&P 500 barely rose, and the NASDAQ 100 declined. Portfolio diversification is taking place in the market. Due to hopes of accelerating economic growth, …
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Upbeat corporate earnings from U.S. banks and Washington's attempts to de-escalate the trade conflict with China allowed the S&P 500 to extend its rally. The broad market index has recovered most of the losses suffered during the sell-off triggered by the White House's announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. The current pullback looks more like a rational recalibration than a reversal. The six largest U.S. banks earned $41 billion in profit in the third quarter, 19% more than during the same period in 2024. Shares of Morgan Stanley and Bank of America jumped by 4.4% and 4.7%, respectively. A positive signal for the S&P 500 came from banking executives' stat…
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The US jobs report has turned everything upside down in the stock market. While previously, bad news from the US economy was good news for the S&P 500—since investors raised their bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts—this time, cooling in the labor market triggered a sell-off in the broad equity index. A weakening economy means lower corporate earnings and profits. What's there to cheer about? At first, out of habit, the S&P 500 shot higher and reached a new record after non-farm payrolls rose by a modest 22,000 in August. But then fear set in. Over the first eight months of the year, the US economy added just under 600,000 jobs. Excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, that…
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When everyone is selling, it presents a great opportunity to buy. Despite an unfavorable week for the S&P 500, the capital flow from money market funds totaling $24.6 billion into U.S. equity funds with $28.1 billion is a strong indication of the underlying strength of the uptrend. Investors continue to use dips in the broad stock index as buying opportunities, even if they are doing so less openly than before. Weekly Performance of the S&P 500 October is a time for reassessment. The stock market had long been dismissing negatives such as the government shutdown and excessively high fundamental valuations, including P/E ratios. At the midpoint of autumn, inv…
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"Don't fight the Fed." Well, it depends on what the Federal Reserve is saying. Recent comments from Jerome Powell that U.S. equities are highly valued only briefly spooked investors. They quickly bought the dip and pushed the S&P 500 to its 29th record high. If the Fed Chair intended to scare the market, it didn't work. Historically, when the central bank has commented on the overvaluation of equities — going back to 1996 — the broad stock index has, on average, risen by 13% over the following 12 months. During that same period, it consistently outperformed its global peers. P/E Ratio Trends and Fed Mentions of S&P 500 Valuation In reality, the Fed's stance is und…
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The storm in the U.S. equity market shows no signs of calming. The S&P 500 opened with a gap for the second consecutive trading session—this time to the downside—following news of an escalation in the trade conflict. Beijing effectively barred Chinese companies from doing business with the U.S. subsidiary of South Korean shipbuilding giant Hanwha Ocean. Yet upbeat corporate earnings and dovish comments from Jerome Powell helped the broad market index ride the volatility rollercoaster and rebound. Financial results from major banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, exceeded expectations, while BlackRock announced that assets under management su…
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When everyone is selling, it creates an opportunity to buy cheaper. This is how uptrends recover. However, sometimes the rise in asset prices after widespread sell-offs is merely the result of short sellers covering their troubled positions. If that's the case, the bullish trend is not necessarily resuming. Something similar is currently happening with the S&P 500. According to research from Goldman Sachs, short sellers of U.S. equities covered their positions in October at the fastest pace on record since tracking began in 2008. It was their activity that brought the S&P 500 back to near record highs. But if this is not a case of buying the dip, there are serious…
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The U.S. stock market is entering the end of 2025 on a positive note. The Federal Reserve's decision to make its final rate cut of the year significantly boosted investor sentiment: the indices rose sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining almost 500 points in a single session, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw strong gains. The familiar phrase "Santa Claus rally" has reemerged in the news, referring to the traditional pre-holiday increase when markets, amid soft policies, seasonal optimism, and capital flowing into riskier assets, tend to rise more than fall. At first glance, the picture looks almost ideal: rates are falling, indices are significant…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The last shall be first. Signs of a deteriorating U.S. economy and uncertainty due to the shutdown prompted investors to diversify their portfolios. At the beginning of November, they reduced their exposure to technology companies. Rumors of a soon-to-be-resumed government operation brought everything back to normal. The stocks of the Magnificent Seven recorded their best performance since May. As a result, the S&P 500 has risen from the ashes. Dynamics of the Magnificent Seven Stocks Just like the Federal Reserve, investors operated in a fog due to a lack of information. The end of the shutdown will allow the release of U.S. economic data and, based on that informati…
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AI rules the day! No matter how grim Donald Trump's threats of mass layoffs, warnings from Scott Bessent about a U.S. economic slowdown, or even the ADP private sector jobs report may seem, the S&P 500 still managed to notch its 30th record high of the year. Leading the northbound herd are the tech giants. Deals between OpenAI and Samsung Electronics, as well as SK Hynix, sparked a swift rebound in the broad equity index after a dip early in the session. Performance of Tech and Other Sectors in the S&P 500 A 45% rally in tech stocks since the April low doesn't look like a bubble — at least according to Bank of America. The bank recommends that its client…
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What's fueling the growth of the U.S. stock market? The S&P 500 continues to shrug off concerns, including rising valuations, the government shutdown, and even political unpredictability. The broad-based stock index just posted its 31st record high this year. Despite the unpredictable nature of Donald Trump, investors maintain a strong belief that the U.S. president will do everything within his power to support the markets. Additionally, there is the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle and the boom in artificial intelligence. Democrats and Republicans remain at a stalemate. Neither side seems willing to compromise and restore the full functioning of the U.S. gove…
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If the White House interferes with the Federal Reserve, why shouldn't the central bank express its view about financial markets? Scott Bessent wonders why the Fed Chair hasn't signaled future rate cuts—which, according to the Treasury Secretary, should drop by 100–150 bps by the end of 2025. Still, Jerome Powell's statement that stocks are "fairly highly valued" made a much bigger impression on investors. The S&P 500 posted three dozen record highs in 2025, rising 35% off its April lows and adding $16 trillion in market cap. Greed and FOMO were so intense that the broad index went 107 sessions without a single drop of 2% or more in a day—the longest winning streak sin…
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In a situation of two-sided risks, there is no risk-free path. Treat the rate cut as a reduction in risk management. How should risky assets have reacted to Jerome Powell's rhetoric? Correct — with a roller coaster ride! Stocks initially surged, then plunged, but by the close of the trading session managed to recover their lost positions. The "bulls" lined up to buy the dip in the S&P 500 and were rewarded. After a nine-month pause, the Fed resumed its cycle of monetary easing. Markets expected this, but the fact that the FOMC forecasts pointed to two more federal funds rate cuts by the end of the year became a rally catalyst. Then came the classic "sell the fact afte…
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Where it is thin, it is prone to tearing. Investors are starting to ask the tough questions: what kind of real profits are technology companies generating from artificial intelligence? And when the answer turns out to be "barely detectable" — so small they need to be examined under a microscope — panic begins to set in. Disappointing results from Oracle regarding its partnerships with OpenAI and other companies triggered a sell-off in the S&P 500. Tesla added fuel to the fire with its underwhelming unveiling of new versions of its top-selling vehicles. With such a high level of concentration in the U.S. stock market, the broad index is forced to react to any news from…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Is there reason to panic when corporations are as strong as a bull, the U.S. economy is expanding, and the Federal Reserve plans to continue cutting rates? Positive earnings reports from Intel and other companies acted as a catalyst for a swift rebound in the S&P 500 from its local bottom. Investors did what they had been wanting to do for some time—buy the dip. Are record highs just around the corner? According to LSEG data, out of 130 S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results, 86% have exceeded profit forecasts. This figure not only reflects their robust health but also a firmly grounded U.S. economy. Moreover, signs of improvement are giving st…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
"Bull" markets don't die of old age. They die of fear. Stock markets fear recession more than anything—and the combination of a reignited U.S.–China trade war and cooling labor market is a clear path toward economic decline in the United States. It's no surprise, then, that we've just seen the worst S&P 500 sell-off since America's Liberation Day back in April. Donald Trump threatened to cancel his meeting with Xi Jinping and retaliate against China's tightening of export controls on rare earth minerals, triggering a sharp drop in the broad equity index. Even after trading closed, the U.S. president announced an increase in tariffs to 100%. Although Trump historically…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Where does the US economy stand? Judging by the cooling labor market, it is approaching a recession. The acceleration of August inflation will allow talk of stagflation. Both are bad for the S&P 500. So why is the stock market rising? A combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus alongside improved corporate reports usually emerges as the US economy exits a downturn. Under such conditions, the broad equity index typically soars. Investors can afford to keep buying the dips. A record negative BLS revision to employment data for the 12 months through March—down by 911,000—convinced investors of labor market weakness. If non-farm payrolls grew by 76,000 per month instead…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend is your friend—follow the trend. If you bought U.S. stocks earlier, there's nothing to worry about. If not, be patient. Wait for a pullback, then buy the dip. This is the current primary strategy for trading the S&P 500. The broad stock index has closed in the red only two times over the last ten sessions. However, it's premature to speak of any meaningful correction. Regardless of lofty fundamentals, the stock market still holds strong cards. Yes, the price-to-expected-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is fluctuating near the highest levels seen since the dotcom crisis. However, a still-strong U.S. economy, continued Federal Reserve monetary expansion, artific…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The US stock market managed to set a new record before Jerome Powell poured a bucket of cold water on buyers. Encouraged by the reduction in the federal funds rate to 4% and by NVIDIA's market capitalization surpassing $5 trillion for the first time in history, the S&P 500 reached an earlier target of 6920. However, the split within the Federal Reserve has raised doubts about the continuation of the monetary expansion cycle in December. This remains an unresolved issue. Dynamics of NVIDIA Capitalization The reaction of the broad stock index to the Fed's verdict was one of the most subdued in a long time. However, this is only the surface of the iceberg. Beneath it, a …
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Bitcoin and XRP have become central to a bold corporate shift in Japan, with AltPlus announcing that both digital assets will be formally incorporated into its long-term treasury strategy. The publicly listed company disclosed the move in its recent shareholder filing, outlining a multi-layered plan that positions cryptocurrencies as foundational components of its future financial and operational framework. Bitcoin And XRP Lead Treasury According to a post by “BankXRP” on X (formerly Twitter), AltPlus is expected to purchase and hold Bitcoin and XRP through a newly established cryptocurrency purchase and management division. The company frames this step as part of a long…
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Bitcoin and Gold as stores of value often boil down to a single, critical distinction in the digital era of mobility. This portability transforms BTC from just a digital gold narrative into a living, breathing monetary network that gold can never match. According to mhar_leeck’s perspective on X, the true evolution of BTC lies in its capacity as a platform for innovation, to move, evolve, and even teach. Unlike gold, which stays locked away, this narrative confines the asset to a passive role. The Build on Bitcoin (BOB) layer 2 solution is presented as the crucial technology that enables this shift. Build On Bitcoin Powering The Narrative Furthermore, by creating a new…
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The market has "digested" Friday's labor and unemployment reports, but the most interesting part is still to come. On Tuesday, the "Nonfarm Payrolls Annual Revision" report will be released. This is precisely the same report as Friday's, except it covers the entire year, not just one month. There's no need to say that the annual figure is much more important than the monthly one. The US labor market has been very weak over the past four months. During this period, only a little over 100,000 new jobs have been created, which is very low for the American economy. The annual Nonfarm Payrolls figure is already making market participants nervous. If the last four reports were …
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[Nasdaq 100 Index] – [Monday, November 10, 2025] With both EMAs still crossing the Death Cross, even though the RSI is at a Neutral-Bullish level, #NDX has the potential to weaken and fall to its nearest support level. Key Levels 1. Resistance 2: 25610.3 2. Resistance 1: 25343.63. Pivot: 24965.84. Support 1: 24699.1 5. Support 2: 24321.3 Tactical Scenario Pressure-Prone Zone: If #NDX breaks down and closes below 24965.8, it will continue its decline to 24699.1.Momentum Extension Bias: If 24699.1 is successfully surpassed, #NDX will test the 24321.3 level.Invalidation Level / Bias Revision Downside bias is maintained if #NDX strengthens and breaks through and closes above …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
[Nasdaq 100 Index] With all technical indicators condition showing weakness in the NDX, such as the Death Cross formation and the RSI(14) being in the Neutral-Bearish level, sellers are quite dominant in the Nasdaq 100 Index today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 26037.7 2. Resistance. 1 : 25904.1 3. Pivot : 25700.9 4. Support. 1 : 25567.1 5. Support. 2 : 25364.1 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price of #NDX breaks down and closes below 25700.9, there is potential for it to continue declining to 25567.1. Momentum Extension Bias: If 25567.1 is broken, then #NDX could test the level at 25364.1. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The downside …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
