Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12029 tópicos neste fórum
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In its latest report, asset manager and exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuer, Bitwise, has shared an optimistic 2026 outlook for the crypto market, anticipating significant growth, while predicting new all-time highs for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Megatrends In Crypto? Bitwise begins by asserting that Bitcoin is poised to break free from its traditional four-year price cycle, setting the stage for new records. Several factors contribute to this bullish forecast. The dynamics of past cycles, including the Bitcoin Halving, interest rate fluctuations, and market booms and busts fueled by leverage, are expected to be less impactful in the coming years. …
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Following yesterday's inflation data, the British pound is preparing for another bout of volatility. Today, the Bank of England is likely to cut interest rates, as concerns are shifting from inflation toward problems in the UK economy and labor market. Traders and economists expect the central bank to lower its base interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.75%—the lowest level in nearly three years. Previously, it was assumed that the decisive vote would once again come from Committee Chair Andrew Bailey, but yesterday's sharp drop in inflation increased the likelihood that one of the four hawks on the Monetary Policy Committee will switch sides. UK inflatio…
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[#USDX] With all technical conditions indicating a strengthening bias, then #USDX has the potential to rise today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 98.64 2. Resistance. 1 : 98.60 3. Pivot : 98.38 4. Support. 1 : 98.14 5. Support. 2 : 97.92 Tactical Scenario: Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #USDX breaks above 98.38, there is potential to test the 98.60 level. Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.60 is broken, then #USDX may move toward 98.64. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias weakens if the price of #USDX declines and breaks below 97.92. Technical Summary: EMA(50) : 98.35 EMA(200): 98.39 RSI(14) : 53.58 Economic News Release Agenda…
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[Nasdaq 100 Index] Although a Bullish Divergence has appeared on the RSI(14), but the RSI is still in the Neutral-Bearish zone, and both EMAs are in a Death Cross configuration, suggesting that the Nasdaq 100 Index has the potential to weaken today. Key Levels 1. Resistance. 2 : 25474.6 2. Resistance. 1 : 25083.8 3. Pivot : 24885.1 4. Support. 1 : 24464.3 5. Support. 2 : 24235.6 Tactical Scenario: Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 24464.3, there is potential for a continuation to 24235.6. Momentum Extension Bias: If 24235.6 is broken, there is an opportunity to test 23844.8. Invalidation Level / Bias Revision: The upside bias is restrai…
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The price of gold continues to hover near record highs as investors monitor the escalating tensions in Venezuela and await U.S. inflation data. Platinum also continued its rapid rally yesterday, increasing by 4%. The price of the precious metal rose to $4,330 per ounce, up 0.8% on Wednesday. This is approximately $50 below the historical peak reached in October. The inflation data to be released today will be closely watched as it may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's willingness to implement further interest rate cuts. The escalation of tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. is supporting gold prices. Geopolitical uncertainty is typically seen as a factor that…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 155.61 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming an appropriate entry point to buy the dollar. However, losses were recorded on this trade because the pair did not appreciate. The dollar managed to maintain its advantage against the Japanese yen, but a more vigorous upward trend in the USD/JPY pair has not materialized. The market appears to be pricing in a moderate tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, expecting any interest rate hikes to occur very gradually. Today's key focus will be on the U.S. inflation data, as no significant r…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe price test at 1.3336 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming an appropriate entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair increased by 20 pips. The sharp decline in UK inflation led to a decline in the British pound. However, bulls managed to reclaim their positions in the second half of the day. Several factors likely triggered the sudden reversal. Firstly, the decline in the pound reached critical levels, prompting stop-loss orders to trigger and attracting short-term buyers looking to capitalize on a rebound. Secondly, traders may have concluded t…
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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the EuroThe price test at 1.1711 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros. The second test at 1.1711 triggered Scenario No. 2 to buy, as the MACD was already in the oversold area, resulting in a rise of more than 20 pips in the pair. After dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rate dynamics, the dollar lost its morning momentum. However, the American economy, despite some weakening, remains more stable than those of many developed nations. The ongoing problem is unemployment, which has been r…
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With only two weeks left of 2025, market participants wonder whether the Bitcoin (BTC) and the rest of the crypto market will continue to struggle or begin recovering. An analyst discussed the current market sentiment and the impact it may have on market performance. The Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is ‘Like Faith In God’ As we approach the end of the year, concerns about the crypto market’s performance continue to mount. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has seen a 30% decline from its early October peak. As the volatility persist and the flagship crypto trades below its yearly opening price of $93,500, some investors questioned the four-year cyc…
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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 1.16%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.41%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.87%. Asian stock indices followed suit, reacting to losses in the US market as investors sold shares of technology companies amid concerns that their valuations had become excessive. Oil prices decreased after President Donald Trump, in a televised address, avoided escalating geopolitical tensions with Venezuela. This week, Washington imposed a blockade on tankers under sanctions from the South American country, with Trump accusing Caracas of depriving the United States of its "energy rights." The regional MSCI index …
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The cryptocurrency market remains volatile. The sharp rise of Bitcoin towards $90,000 was quickly reversed, with the trading instrument dropping back to around $85,500, where it feels more comfortable. Ethereum is also trading below $3,000, preparing for a potential move towards $2,700. While the bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market persists, attention was drawn to a statement made yesterday by Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller. During his speech, he mentioned that, in his opinion, stablecoins will strengthen demand for the U.S. dollar in the near future. Traders and market participants had mixed reactions to this statement. On the one hand, the rec…
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The euro and British pound quickly recovered from losses incurred in the first half of the day; however, a bullish market has yet to develop, and there are objective reasons for this. The dollar lost ground following dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials on future interest rates. Traders reacted to hints of further monetary policy easing. However, such a reaction could be premature. Today, several important decisions are expected that could overturn the current market picture. A European Central Bank decision regarding the main interest rate is anticipated, as is a similar decision from the Bank of England. Attention will be closely focused on Christine Lagarde…
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A cryptocurrency analyst has explained where Ethereum could go next based on a long-term Parallel Channel forming in its monthly price chart. Ethereum Has Been Trading Inside A Parallel Channel For The Last Few Years In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a long-term pattern that Ethereum has appeared to have been following for the last few years. The pattern in question is a “Parallel Channel” from technical analysis (TA), which forms whenever an asset’s price trades between two parallel trendlines. The upper level of a Parallel Channel is likely to facilitate top formations in the asset, while the lower one can act as a support boundary and allow t…
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On Wednesday, a bipartisan meeting of the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senator Tim Scott, offered a cautiously optimistic outlook for discussions surrounding the anticipated crypto market structure bill. Despite the absence of any markup hearings scheduled for this week, industry representatives and senators engaged in what many considered a productive dialogue regarding the evolving legislative landscape. Senators Collaborate With Industry Leaders Key figures from major crypto firms were among the attendees, including executives from Coinbase (COIN), Kraken, Chainlink, a16z, and Ripple, who have been increasingly involved in discussions aimed at fostering the posi…
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Solana failed to settle above $132 and nosedived. SOL price is now consolidating losses below $130 and might decline further below $120. SOL price started a fresh decline below $130 and $128 against the US Dollar. The price is now trading below $128 and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $131 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could start a recovery wave if the bulls defend $122 or $120. Solana Price Dips Again Solana price failed to remain stable above $132 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. SOL declined below the $130 and $128 support levels.…
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Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There aren't many macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but one on U.S. inflation is highly significant. Recall that the employment data from the U.S. labor market this week has once again proven to be weak and contradictory, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to lean towards making dovish decisions. This is only hindered by the rising inflation seen in recent months. If the Consumer Price Index for November shows a new acceleration, it will be a positive sign for the dollar, as the Fed may then take a prolonged pause on easing monetary policy. However, if inflation slows, the Fed could lower the key rate as early …
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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair The GBP/USD pair experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, recovered, and then resumed a new downward move. The ascending trendline has been broken, so a correction may occur in the near future. Yesterday, the UK inflation report was published, providing a definitive conclusion on the Bank of England's monetary policy decision scheduled for today. There is now no doubt that the British central bank will cut the key interest rate, which is a bearish factor for the British currency. While this decision may already be partially priced in, a decline could still be observed today, as the BoE may adopt a more dov…
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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades: 1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair The EUR/USD currency pair corrected downward on Wednesday, but the upward trend remains intact, as clearly shown in the illustration above. Yesterday, the euro declined sharply, despite an essentially absent macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop. Traders might have felt that a downward trend was beginning, which is indeed possible, as the price reached the upper boundary of the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 on the daily timeframe. However, the flat has lasted for six months, and sooner or later, it must come to an end. Thus, we believe it's still too early to panic and expect a new decline in the pair…
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According to statements reported by Russian news agencies, Anatoly Aksakov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets, said cryptocurrencies “will never become money” in Russia and should be treated only as investment instruments. He said that where a payment is required, it must be made in Russian rubles. Ruble Remains Sole Payment Unit Based on reports, that stance matches existing law. A 2020 federal law on digital financial assets defines digital currency as something different from Russia’s monetary unit and bars its use as a means of payment inside the country. The law treats tokens and classic cryptocurrencies as property or investment items rathe…
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XRP price failed to gain pace above $1.950 and trimmed gains. The price is now struggling and faces resistance near the $1.90 level. XRP price started a fresh decline below the $1.90 zone. The price is now trading below $1.880 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $1.9350 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $1.850. XRP Price Fails At Resistance XRP price attempted a recovery wave above $1.920 but failed to continue higher, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price started a fresh decline below $1.90 and $1.880. There was a mov…
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The idea that Bitcoin’s halving operates on a fixed four-year timetable has become one of the most oversimplified narratives in the crypto markets. While the halving still reduces new supply, its influence is no longer confined to predictable timelines or uniform outcomes. As BTC matures into a globally traded asset, the forces shaping its market behavior have expanded beyond the event. How The Cycle Narrative Became Oversimplified In an X post, an analyst known as Deg_ape revealed that the Bitcoin halving cycle was never a rigid four-year clock. BTC’s cycle has always been about phase transitions, shifting liquidity conditions, and market behavior, but never about buyin…
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Ethereum price failed to stay above $3,000 and declined further. ETH is now consolidating and might soon aim to start a recovery wave if it clears $2,880. Ethereum started a fresh decline below the $2,950 zone. The price is trading below $2,900 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2,920 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below the $2,800 zone. Ethereum Price Dips To New Weekly Lows Ethereum price attempted a fresh increase but struggled above $3,000, like Bitcoin. ETH price dipped below $2,950 and $2,920 to enter a bearish zon…
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The GBP/USD currency pair has been more active over the past two days than the EUR/USD pair. However, it has not shown any super-interesting movements. Essentially, we witnessed a new surge upward on somewhat weak U.S. labor-market data, followed by a correction on a weaker-than-expected inflation report from the UK—and that was it. It is worth noting that inflation figures are not currently significant for the European Central Bank, which has managed to stabilize its rate around 2%. However, they are very important for the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve. The U.S. inflation report will be released today, while the UK report was released yesterday. We will focus o…
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The EUR/USD currency pair was more active on Tuesday and Wednesday, yet overall it didn't warrant a standing ovation. Consider this: on a highly informative Tuesday, the total volatility was only 75 pips. And that was on a day when a good dozen important macroeconomic reports were released in both the Eurozone and the U.S. Thus, we can draw a few conclusions that should be obvious to all. The first conclusion is that the flat trend on the daily timeframe remains relevant, which explains the relatively low volatility even on days when volatility would logically be the highest. The second conclusion is that the market was not impressed by the U.S. macroeconomic data it had …
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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair began on Wednesday with a sharp decline. This drop in the British currency was entirely justified, as the only important report of the day—the UK inflation report—came in significantly below forecasts. While a slowdown in inflation is generally positive for the economy (or at least for consumers), it also greatly increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its upcoming meeting, happening today. Consequently, the market priced in monetary policy easing, and in the second half of the day the pound unexpectedly began to recover, returning to its initial levels. We believe the pair's growth in the secon…
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