Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11930 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Review and Guidance on Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 152.05 in the first half of the session occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair rose by only about 15 points. The further trajectory of USD/JPY is now largely determined by upcoming U.S. economic releases, including the Consumer Confidence Index, housing market indicators, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Of these, consumer confidence will have the greatest impact on the pair. Consumer optimism about personal finances and the economy's outlook usually encourages spe…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese YenThe price test of 152.07 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 152.07 triggered Scenario #2 for buying the dollar, resulting in a rise of more than 40 points for the pair. After lunch, the key event will be the FOMC decision on the key interest rate. It is expected to be cut by 0.25%, but equally important will be the FOMC's accompanying comments and Jerome Powell's press conference. A neutral tone from the Fed Chair could have a positive effect on U.S. dollar positions. However, if Powell expresses concern …
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Analysis of trades and trading advice for the Japanese yen The price test of 153.14 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and skipped the entire upward movement of the pair. The cautious stance of the Bank of Japan, expressed today by its governor after the decision to keep interest rates unchanged, negatively affected demand for the yen under the current conditions, further reinforcing the dominance of the U.S. dollar. Later today, FOMC members Michelle Bowman and Lorie K. Logan are scheduled to give public speeches. Investors and analysts …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen The test of the 150.06 level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD had already moved far below the zero mark, which, in the context of such a strong uptrend, limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 150.06, when the MACD was in the oversold area, allowed Scenario #2 for buying to play out, resulting in a rise of more than 40 points. In the second half of the day, no U.S. data is expected, so pressure on the yen may persist, especially after the news about who became the new Prime Minister of Japan. The market is closely watching every detail in an effort to assess possible chang…
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Trade Analysis and Recommendations on the Japanese Yen The price test of 152.58 in the first half of the day occurred at a moment when the MACD was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the dollar in continuation of the bullish trend. As a result, the pair rose by 35 points. The market is preparing for important interviews. Traders will pay special attention to the statements of FOMC members Michael S. Barr and Neel Kashkari. Equally important will be the publication of the September Fed meeting minutes, where for the first time this year a decision was made to cut interest rates. The minutes will likely outli…
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Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test at 155.53 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points. The anticipated Bank of Japan interest rate decision is already supporting the yen and could have a significant impact on global financial markets. Japan is one of the world's largest creditors, and a rate hike may lead to capital outflows from other countries, especially those with lower rates. This may also affect the value of Japanese assets and help stabilize the yen. Later today, the focus will s…
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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen The price test of 156.63 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the pair never moved downward. In the afternoon, market attention will be focused on the results of the FOMC meeting, where a decision to cut the key interest rate is expected. Since markets have already priced in the likelihood of a rate cut, the main interest lies in Powell's tone and his comments on future monetary policy. A key moment will be Powell's assessment of economic conditions and infla…
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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen There were no tests of the levels I marked in the first half of the day, so I had no trades. In the second half of the day, figures on U.S. initial jobless claims and the trade balance are expected. Weak statistics will lead to a new decline in the USD/JPY pair. The market's reaction to the data release will be immediate, as traders closely monitor these indicators, which serve as important signals of the U.S. economy's condition. An increase in initial jobless claims indicates a slowdown in the labor market, which may negatively impact economic growth and the U.S. dollar's position against the Japanese yen. …
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Trade analysis and guidance on trading the Japanese yen The test of the 155.64 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 155.64 happened when the MACD indicator was in the oversold zone, which triggered the implementation of Buy Scenario #2. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points. During the U.S. trading session, the main focus will shift to speeches by FOMC representatives Beth M. Hammack and Austan D. Goolsbee. A dovish tone from these officials could negatively affect the U.S. dollar. If expectations of further rate cuts increase, downward pressure o…
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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 155.28 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, losses were recorded on the trade, as the dollar failed to rise. Given the current macroeconomic environment, investors and traders will continue to closely monitor every economic indicator that can shed light on the state of the U.S. economy. The Empire Manufacturing Index, which reflects manufacturing activity in New York State, is one such indicator. A drop in this index below the expected level may indicate a slowd…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 155.84 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of 155.84 coincided with the MACD being in the overbought area, which activated scenario No. 2 for selling. However, the pair never actually declined, resulting in a loss. Will the situation in the market shift in favor of the Japanese yen after the release of the U.S. RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index? Unlikely. Most likely, the dollar will maintain its leading position in the pair with the yen, since this indicator does…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The test of the 155.58 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 155.58 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which led to the execution of Buy Scenario No. 2. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points. Next, close attention should be paid to the ADP report, which acts as a leading indicator. Positive ADP data may strengthen the dollar against the Japanese yen. The ISM Services PMI is also significant. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the sector, which w…
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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 155.12 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Today's speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda supported buyers of the yen. Ueda noted that at the moment, the regulator can only estimate the neutral interest rate approximately, which indicates the difficulty of future decision-making. However, this does not cancel market expectations for a rate hike as early as next week. Later today, attention will shift to the publication of weekly U.S. initial jobles…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese YenThe test of the price level at 154.47 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Unfortunately, I did not wait for a second test to buy at this level. In the afternoon, particular attention will be paid to the release of US data. It will start with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, followed by information on changes in consumer spending and income. Later that day, consumer sentiment data calculated by the University of Michigan and inflation forecasts prepared by the same…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 156.34 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The dollar continued to gain against the yen for the third consecutive day, despite the Bank of Japan seemingly planning to raise interest rates, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower them. However, since this scenario has been anticipated since the end of last month, there is nothing surprising in the upward correction of the USD/JPY pair. Later today, attention will focus on the ADP weekly employment change report, w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen A price test of 156.33 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. During the US trading session, attention will be focused on several important releases. The dynamics of initial jobless claims is a key indicator of labor market health. An increase in such claims may signal slowing economic activity and rising layoffs. Conversely, a decline in claims indicates a stable or expanding labor market, which is a positive sign for the economy. The volume of durable goods orders reflects…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade analysis and advice on trading the Japanese yen No tests of the key levels I outlined occurred during the first half of the day, and the pair's volatility left much to be desired. In the second half of the session, demand for the U.S. dollar against the yen is expected to return only if the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data turn out strong. There will also be a speech by FOMC member Philip N. Jefferson. The market closely monitors consumer sentiment data because it reflects the current state of the economy and households' willingness to spend. Strong figures may indicate an improvement in economic conditions and, as a re…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen The price test of 152.66 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD had just begun moving down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the pair never actually dropped. Today, the key event for investors will be the public speeches by Austan D. Goolsbee and Alberto Musalem, representing the U.S. Federal Reserve. Recently, policymakers' remarks have increasingly suggested that the Fed might slow down rate cuts expected in October this year. Therefore, traders will focus closely on their statements, trying to forecast the regulator's future actions regarding mon…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test at 151.23 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For that reason, I did not buy the dollar. A little later, there was another test of 151.23, this time under the right conditions — the MACD had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for a long position. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points. In the second half of the day, focus will shift to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, as well as speeches by FOMC members Christopher Waller and M…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Guidance for the Japanese Yen The price test at 149.78 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed the downward move. During the U.S. trading session, no major economic data releases are scheduled, so the main event will be another public statement from Federal Reserve officials. Special attention will be given to FOMC member Alberto Musalem, whose rhetoric tends to favor a softening of monetary policy — something that could pressure the U.S. dollar and support the upward trend of the J…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen The test of 147.23 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. The second test of 147.23 coincided with MACD being in the oversold area, which triggered scenario #2 for buying the dollar, but the pair did not actually manage to grow afterward. For further downward movement in USD/JPY later in the day, the key drivers will be the U.S. ADP employment change report and the ISM Manufacturing Index. Investors will carefully analyze the incoming data to assess the state of the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the Japanese YenThe test of the 152.53 price in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero mark. This confirmed a correct entry point for buying the dollar, which resulted in a 25-point rise in the pair. On the eve of key events, the market is in a state of tense anticipation. The U.S. housing sales report, while important, temporarily loses relevance as traders focus on predicting the Federal Reserve's next moves. The main question determining the future of interest rates is inflation dynamics — whether it is slowing or remaining stable. The speeches by Barr and Bowman will…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice on the Japanese Yen The price test of 152.94 in the first half of the day coincided with a moment when the MACD had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of this price coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, which led to the realization of Scenario #2 for buying the pound. Unfortunately, the pair did not experience a significant upward move. During the U.S. session, traders' attention will shift to the Leading Indicators Index data. A sharp drop in this indicator would lead to a decline in the dollar against the Japanese yen. Although this scenario seems the mos…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade breakdown and guidance on trading the Japanese yen The test of the 147.04 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 146.66. Today's U.S. session is rich in macroeconomic reports that are the focus of investors seeking a clearer understanding of both the labor market and manufacturing. Particular attention will be given to the release of weekly initial jobless claims. Traders will carefully compare actual data with forecasts to assess the labor market's resilience and si…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen The price test at 154.11 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the U.S. dollar and resulting in a 25-point rise. There were no interventions from the Bank of Japan, so traders continued to sell the yen and buy the U.S. dollar. In the second half of the day, only weak data on U.S. new home sales and the Chicago Business Activity Index could trigger the closing of long dollar positions at the end of the month. Nevertheless, decisive statements from Federal Reserve officials such as Raphael Bostic and Beth M. Hammack could suppor…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
