Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11845 tópicos neste fórum
-
What place holds the highest probability for a new world-class discovery? As an Australia-based geologist and investor, I tend to look in my own backyard first, which is the home bias effect. But the thing is, thanks to decades of a supportive mining environment, well-trained staff, and advanced exploration methods, the prospect of discovering another giant deposit in Australia is fading. Don’t get me wrong, there could still be potential in remote outback locations, like the Tanami. But compared to places like West Africa, where high-grade gold can still be found close to surface, Australia’s giant discovery potential is diminishing. Then there’s Ca…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The IMF also believes that increasing government investments in 2026 will boost economic growth, while low public debt will allow for the attraction of additional funds. Germany's public debt stands at only 68% of GDP, the lowest figure among EU countries. As the saying goes, Germany has room to grow, provided there is the will to do so. However, Germany epitomizes the well-fed and measured pace of the European Union. While in many other countries workers are willing to do overtime, actively seek new jobs in case of layoffs, and do not allow themselves to have idle time—where all adult family members work—many EU countries (including Germany) experience the opposite situa…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD pair showed only one thing on Friday—a complete reluctance to move in any direction. Overall, there were no significant movements last week, despite numerous important macroeconomic reports. However, the market essentially traded only on Monday and Wednesday, and even then, it seemed like a favor was being done for someone. Throughout the week, we only saw two relatively interesting price movements. As depicted in the illustration below, these two "good movements" were around 60 pips in size, which cannot even be considered strong. In fact, the situation was even worse on the other days. At first glance at the events calendar, one might describe the upcoming w…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum price started a fresh increase above $3,000. ETH is now consolidating gains and might aim for more gains above $3,150. Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,000 and $3,020 levels. The price is trading above $3,050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,140 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above the $3,150 zone. Ethereum Price Eyes Additional Gains Ethereum price managed to stay above $2,920 and started a fresh increase, like Bitcoin. ETH price gained strength for a move above the $3,000 and $3,020 resistance levels.…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP price started a recovery wave above $2.050. The price is now showing positive signs but might struggle to clear the $2.10 resistance. XRP price started a recovery wave above the $2.050 zone. The price is now trading above $2.060 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.090 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $2.160. XRP Price Faces Uphill Task XRP price remained supported above $2.00 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above $2.020 and $2.050 to enter a positive …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
It's hard not to be optimistic when the S&P 500 enters a seasonally strong period and the Fed is set to lower interest rates. The broad stock index has risen to its highest level since the end of October. However, profit-taking ahead of the FOMC meeting prevented it from maintaining the local peak. Nonetheless, the outlook for the US stock market remains bullish. More than three-quarters of asset managers surveyed by Bloomberg are positioning their portfolios for a risk-on market environment. They believe that sustained global growth, ongoing developments in artificial intelligence technology, easing monetary policy from the Fed, and fiscal stimulus will support the …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EUR/USDAnalysis: The analysis of the European currency chart indicates that the corrective bearish wave that started in April of this year continues its formation. The wave level of all price movements lacks reversal potential, continuing the development of the current structure. The unfinished wave segment dates back to September 16 and has formed a counterpullback over the last month. Forecast: This week, the likelihood of the euro major continuing its sideways movement remains. In the early days, a price decline toward the calculated support is expected. A brief spike below its lower boundary is not ruled out. Increased volatility and a return to a bullish trend can be…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
EMJ Capital CEO Eric Jackson has laid out one of the most aggressive long-term bitcoin targets in the space yet, arguing in an interview with reporter Phil Rosen that the cryptocurrency could reach $50 million per coin by 2041. His projection is tied to a thesis that bitcoin will evolve from “digital gold” into the core collateral layer of the global financial system. Jackson said his thinking grows out of the same “hundred bagger” framework he used when buying beaten-down equities like Carvana. He recalled entering Carvana after its share price collapsed from around $400 to roughly $3.50 in 2022, at a time when sentiment was almost universally hostile. “You would hear t…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). On Monday, from the level of 1.3329 (the close of Friday's daily candle), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.3367 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may begin moving downward toward 1.3352 – the upper fractal (daily candle of December 3, 2025). Fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: Indicator analysis – upFibonacci levels – upVolumes – upCandlestick analysis – upTrend analysis – upBollinger Bands – upWeekly chart – upOverall conclusion: upward trend. Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3329 (the close of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue moving upward toward 1…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
At the start of the new week, gold continues to show a modest intraday rise, although it is not displaying strong confidence, remaining within its weekly trading range. From a technical standpoint, the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been providing support for the precious metal since the beginning of this month. At the moment, the 200-hour EMA is located near $4190 and should become a key reference point for short-term traders. A decisive break below this level would trigger technical selling, making gold prices vulnerable to an accelerated decline toward the $4160–4163 level—the December monthly low—on the way to levels below the round $4100 level. If this…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Anglo American (LON: AAL) has dropped a proposal to change executive bonus awards from the agenda of this week’s shareholder vote on its merger with Canada’s Teck Resources (TSX:TECK.A | TECK.B) after investors objected to the plan. The company said the merger now hinges only on approval to issue new shares, not on executive pay changes. It added that its remuneration committee will consult investors ahead of an updated pay policy at the 2026 annual meeting. The withdrawn proposal had sought a 62.5% minimum vesting of 2024 and 2025 share awards for executive directors, tied to completion of the Teck merger, and required a separate resolution because it fell outsi…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Analysis and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen The test of the 154.17 price occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and skipped the move. In the second half of the day, we will only see U.S. factory orders data, which is unlikely to significantly help the dollar rise against the Japanese yen. Investors' attention is currently focused on other factors that determine currency-pair dynamics. The key factor is the anticipation of signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy. The market is pri…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum has reclaimed the $3,150 level after a volatile Sunday session that left traders divided on what comes next. Some analysts warn that ETH’s recent bounce is nothing more than a temporary pause before the downtrend resumes, while others see signs of a potential bullish reversal forming at current levels. Fresh data from Binance reveals that Ethereum is now entering a delicate phase. Price momentum has clearly weakened, yet open interest remains relatively high despite the decline from the $3,900 region. This disconnect highlights a major shift in futures market behavior: traders are holding positions, but not aggressively increasing them. The 30-day open interes…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 8 Today's session was victim of classic pre-FOMC trading: Volatile but low magnitude moves due to some traders cutting their positions at the last minuteSome assets and/or currencies just seem dead. There hasn't been much data to help volatility today and the same can be said tomorrow. In terms of economics, the Trump Administration seems to be moving towards a new TACO with tariffs on Canadian fertilizers. But more importantly for Stocks, particularly Nvidia, the US just pulled the restrictions on H200 Chips, essential for AI Models. On Ukraine, Zelenskyy communicated some positive words about recent Eur…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
A crypto analyst has revisited long-term charts from 2012-2015, noting that the current Bitcoin (BTC) cycle shows striking similarities to this timeline, in terms of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and price action. During the 2017-2015 bull run, BTC experienced one of the strongest multi-year advances before bottoming out. The market expert claims that the same sequence of peaks and pullbacks observed in that timeline is now unfolding again in this cycle. Bitcoin RSI Comparison Signals Bottoming Structure Bitcoin’s latest momentum study by crypto analyst Tony Severino has drawn significant attention from market watchers. In his X post on December 6, Severino highligh…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The RBA will hold its final meeting on Tuesday, December 9. The market has already priced in this final act. Following the release of the latest labor market and inflation data, there is no doubt that the central bank will keep all monetary policy parameters unchanged. The GDP and trade balance reports published last week only confirmed these assumptions. However, this does not mean that the December meeting of the RBA members will be a "formality." Traders are interested in the central bank's future decisions. Previously, the market considered only two possible scenarios—rate cuts and maintaining the status quo. Now, some experts are not ruling out a third scenario that …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
So what decisions will the Federal Reserve make, and what rhetoric will it use? In my opinion, the decision has already been made – a 25-basis-point cut to the key interest rate. It is likely that the market has already priced in this decision, but it should be understood that new policy easing may be the last for some time. Why? Because the Fed continues to act in the dark. The latest data on the labor market and unemployment pertains to September. We have not seen data for October or November. These will only be released next week. Therefore, no one knows whether the "cooling" of the American labor market has stopped. I wouldn't count on the ADP report too much, as it i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets; however, this did not prompt any significant technical changes in the market. The temporary strengthening of the dollar against the euro yesterday in the afternoon can hardly be linked to anything specific. The changes against the pound were even less noticeable. It is evident that the market is waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve on future monetary policy. Traders are also closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators in an attempt to predict how dovish the Fed will be in the near future. Today, in the first half of the day, data on Germany's trade balance is expected, along …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British Pound The test of the 1.3337 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by just over 15 points. Pound buyers became active despite the lack of significant fundamental data from the UK. Traders are betting that the regulator will be forced to maintain a wait-and-see stance on interest rates, despite concerns about slowing UK GDP growth, in order to keep persistently high inflation under control. In the second half of the day, we expect the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, as well as a new economic…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
As Bitcoin prepares for a significant movement that could occur following tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting—an outcome that may displease many buyers—Argentina is considering allowing domestic banks to trade digital assets and offer cryptocurrency-related services, a move that could accelerate cryptocurrency adoption in the country. The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic recently announced that it is working on changes to its current regulations, which currently prohibit banking institutions from engaging in activities related to digital assets. If implemented, this step would represent a substantial shift in Argentina's approach to cryptocurrencies. Up until now,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Japanese yen continues to gradually lose ground against the US dollar, even in light of the differing monetary policies anticipated from central banks in the near future. This indicates that the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan is already factored into the yen's value, and much will depend on new forecasts. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the long battle against deflation in the country, which has persisted for decades, is nearly over. Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank is approaching its inflation target, reinforcing signals that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its monetary policy me…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Shiba Inu has just logged its most intense burst of large-holder activity in half a year, raising questions over whether fresh volatility – and potentially renewed selling pressure – is around the corner. On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported the move on X, highlighting a six-month chart of Shiba Inu’s price, exchange balances and large transfers. According to the firm, “Shiba Inu has seen the highest amount of whale transfers since June 6th today, happening in tandem with a +1.06T net change to the amount of SHIB on exchanges. The #24 market cap in crypto is likely to see high volatility in the coming days.” What Does This Mean For The Shiba Inu Price? The chart s…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
GreenRoc Mining Plc (AIM: GROC) jumped on Tuesday after the Greenland-focused critical minerals explorer secured a 30-year exploitation licence for its Amitsoq graphite project, paving the way for its production. Greenland’s business and mineral resources minister, Naaja Nathanielsen, signed off on the licence earlier this week, marking the third such permit granted by the Arctic island this year. “(The) exploitation licence is the result of focused political efforts to make Greenland more attractive for responsible investments, while seriously taking into account the concerns for people and the environment,” Nathanielsen said in a statement. Stefan Bernstein,…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Shiba Inu has recorded a notable surge in spot trading activity on several exchanges over the last seven days. This provides a bullish outlook for the second-largest meme coin by market cap, which has been one of the underperformers in this market cycle. Shiba Inu Sees Surge In Spot Trading Activity CoinGlass data show a 154% surge in Shiba Inu USD spot trading volume on Kraken over the last seven days. There has also been a significant surge on other major exchanges, such as Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Gemini, during the same period. This indicates that spot buyers may be stepping in to defend the SHIB price at a critical support amid the broader crypto market decline. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Lundin Gold (TSX: LUG) said output at its Fruta del Norte gold mine in southeast Ecuador should remain flat over the next three years while unit costs climb due to increased royalties. Fruta del Norte is expected to produce between 475,000 and 525,000 oz. annually in 2026, 2027 and 2028, Lundin Gold said late Monday in a statement. This compares with the company’s 490,000–525,000 oz. output range for 2025. Head grade is estimated to average 8.3 grams gold per tonne, with fluctuations expected during 2026 as different sections of the ore body are mined. “Despite the strong execution and consistent results, the stable near-term production profile keeps us cautious …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
