Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
11783 tópicos neste fórum
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Deal Analysis and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the price level at 1.3362 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 17 pips. Long positions on the bounce from 1.3345 allowed for an additional profit of about 20 pips from the market. The pound only slightly declined against the US dollar. This relative stability of the British currency can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the market has already partially priced in expectations regarding a further pause in the Bank of England's rate-cutting cycle, as high inflation in the UK…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The Australian dollar started the new trading week on a negative note. This time, it was let down by China, which published relatively weak macroeconomic data today. It's worth noting that last week, the Aussie came under pressure following a disappointing employment report. The total number of employed people in Australia unexpectedly decreased by more than 20,000, contrary to optimistic forecasts (most analysts had predicted a gain of 20,000 jobs). The structure of this component only exacerbated the situation: the full-time employment indicator plummeted to -56,500, while part-time employment increased by 35,000. This is a negative signal, as full-time positions of…
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Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Weighed Down by Softbanks 6% Drop Most Read: The Bank of Japan's FX Intervention: Mechanism, Impact, and Historical Precedent The Nikkei dropped by more than 1% on Monday as its technology stocks fell, following a similar decline on Wall Street due to ongoing concerns that tech company valuations are too high (an "AI bubble"). The two largest companies dragging the index down were SoftBank Group and the chip-testing-tool maker Advantest (a key supplier to Nvidia). These two stocks alone accounted for the majority of Nikkei's total decline, with SoftBank falling 6% and Advantest tumbling 6.4%. However, the broader index, the Topix, actually ros…
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As the eventful year of 2025 draws to an end, crypto analysts are looking into what the Dogecoin price could hold for investors going into the end of the year. One of these analysts is BitGuru, who shared an interest in the Dogecoin price chart, highlighting the next possible roadmap that the meme coin could take. With the possibility of a bounce rising, the next targets have become increasingly important to identify in order to maximize gains. Why The Dogecoin Price Could Recover Quickly BitGuru’s analysis focuses on the rising demand surrounding the meme coin after finding support from the recent crash. The Dogecoin price had stopped above $0.13, suggesting that the de…
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Strategy chair Michael Saylor signaled that his firm may add to its Bitcoin holdings just as the market slid again on Sunday, a move that kept traders on edge and fed fresh debate over what is driving the declines. Back To More Orange Dots According to a post on X, Saylor shared a chart with the phrase “Back to More Orange Dots,” a shorthand that investors interpret as fresh buying. Based on reports tracked by SaylorTracker, Strategy bought 10,624 BTC on Dec. 12 — its biggest single purchase since late July. The firm now holds about 660,624 BTC, which at current prices is worth roughly $58.5 billion, and its average cost per coin stands at $74,696. Sunday Wick, Low…
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For many affluent pre-retirees and retirees, understanding how retirement withdrawals are taxed is essential for protecting long-term wealth. The rules can be complex, and traditional paper-heavy portfolios often create unnecessary uncertainty. By contrast, physical gold and other IRS-approved precious metals held inside a self-directed Gold IRA can offer a more stable and tax-efficient foundation for retirement income planning. Understanding How Retirement Withdrawals Are Taxed Most Americans enter retirement with savings inside tax-advantaged accounts like Traditional IRAs, 401(k)s, 403(b)s or similar plans. While these accounts help shelter growth during working years,…
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Understanding how retirement account withdrawals are taxed is a critical part of protecting long term retirement security. Taxes directly affect the money you keep, especially once you begin taking distributions to support your lifestyle. For many retirees, adding a layer of stability with a self-directed Gold IRA can help preserve purchasing power while navigating both distribution rules and economic uncertainty. Understanding How Retirement Account Withdrawals Are Taxed Every retirement account follows specific tax rules that determine how your distributions are treated. Traditional IRAs and 401(k)s typically defer taxes until withdrawal, which means distributions are t…
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Bitcoin thought it had found a bottom, only to be knocked from below. The tumultuous recovery of US stock indices extended a lifeline to BTC/USD; however, a series of bad news caused the token's prices to plummet. It wasn't alone. Ethereum dropped by 7%, and altcoins also faced a wave of sell-offs amid the downgrade of the largest stablecoin, USDT, to junk status. S&P Global Ratings believes that the falling value of Bitcoin will lead to insufficient backing for the token. Positive news on stablecoins, including Congress's approval of legislation on their use, had previously been one of the catalysts for the BTC/USD rally. By the same token, negative developments lea…
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Final Full Trading Week of the Year Until Christmas As markets enter the last full trading week of the year, many traders treat it like business as usual. But seasoned professionals know that the pre-Christmas period follows its own playbook. Liquidity thins as the week winds on, real-money flows dominate, and market behavior becomes anything but predictable. Understanding these dynamics can help traders avoid unnecessary risks—and capitalize on unique year-end opportunities. A Pre-Christmas Market Driven by Real-Money Flows Unlike typical trading weeks where speculation and new positioning drive price action, the final trading stretch before Christmas is shaped by a d…
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A recent technical analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader presents Ethereum’s price action on the 2-day candlestick chart as a textbook example of Wyckoff accumulation. In his assessment, Ethereum has already moved through several key stages of the model and is now approaching a powerful expansion phase, provided the structure stays intact. Wyckoff Accumulation Structure Taking Shape On Ethereum Chart Over the past several days, Ethereum has traded between roughly $3,050 and $3,400, repeatedly failing to secure a sustained move beyond either boundary. At the time of writing, Ethereum’s price action is trading around $3,100. This prolonged standoff ha…
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Equinox Gold (TSX, NYSE-A: EQX) has sold its Brazilian operations to China’s CMOC Group in a deal worth over $1 billion, the company announced in a press release on Sunday. The assets included in the sale are Equinox’s 100% interest in the Aurizona mine in Maranhão, the RDM mine in Minas Gerais, and the Bahia complex, consisting of the Fazenda and Santa Luz mines. Together, they are expected to deliver 250,000–270,000 oz. of gold production this year, according to company guidance. The total consideration comprises an upfront cash payment $900 million due on closing, plus a contingent cash payment of up to $115 million linked to the mines’ production, due one year…
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Ethereum price started a fresh decline below $3,120. ETH is now consolidating and might soon aim to start a recovery wave above $3,200. Ethereum started a downside correction from the $3,250 zone. The price is trading below $3,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at $3,175 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could continue to move down if it settles below the $3,050 zone. Ethereum Price Dips Toward Support Ethereum price failed to stay above $3,180 and started a fresh decline, like Bitcoin. ETH price dipped below $3,150 and $3,120 to enter a short-term bearish zone. T…
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports: There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for today. Essentially, the only notable report is the Eurozone industrial production report. It is not the most secondary report, but it is certainly far from the most important. If the reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting last week resulted in movements of 60-80 pips, what can we expect from the Eurozone's industrial production? We believe that this report will not significantly impact the EUR/USD pair today. The calendars of macroeconomic and fundamental events in the UK, EU, and US are empty. Analysis of Fundamental Events: Several fundamental events are scheduled f…
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On Friday, stock indices closed sharply lower. The S&P 500 fell by 1.07%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.69%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 1.51%. Futures on US stock indices have risen slightly with the start of a new week after concerns about tech company profits and significant investments in AI prompted another sell-off on Wall Street last Friday. However, this rebound should be viewed with caution given the ongoing uncertainty regarding interest rates and the economic outlook. Investors remain concerned that the Federal Reserve may be slow to lower rates, especially if inflation does not continue to decrease steadily toward the target level. …
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Deal Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro CurrencyThe test of the price level at 1.1736 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips. Statements from Federal Reserve officials at the end of last week did not support the US dollar, leaving the euro well-positioned for further gains. Overcoming significant resistance levels will allow the upward trend to continue today, as the overall picture suggests favorable conditions for further strengthening of risk assets. Today, fresh data on the German wholesale price index and information on changes in industrial produ…
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Recent days have presented a true test for traders and investors, as global financial and technological markets have been engulfed in instability, reflecting a wide array of economic, political, and technological trends. Bitcoin is undergoing a sharp correction, losing almost a third of its value and triggering a wave of liquidations, despite ongoing interest from institutional players. At the same time, gold is hitting multi-week highs amid the Fed's easing policies, raising concerns about overheating in the precious metals market. In the technology sector, a new confrontation is rapidly unfolding as China reduces its lag behind the US in the race for leadership in art…
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The U.S. dollar continues to face difficulties that are entirely related to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the end of this year. However, not all of its representatives share this approach. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said late last week that he expects more interest rate cuts in 2026 than many of his colleagues, but expressed disagreement with a possible rate cut in December, as he would like to wait for additional inflation data. "I am not hawkish on interest rates for next year," Goolsbee said on Friday. "I'm one of the more optimistic people about how much rates could come down next year." Such statements, even if they still sound i…
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Young Hoon Kim — a social-media personality who describes himself on X as the “IQ 276” holder — said XRP could rise to $100 over the next five years, offering a fresh bullish target that drew a mix of enthusiasm and criticism across Crypto Twitter. Kim Doubles Down On XRP “Based on my personal view, XRP could potentially reach $100 over the next 5 years. (NFA/DYOR),” the superbrain posted via X on Dec. 14. The post showed roughly 133,300 views. Notably, Kim didn’t stop at the five-year call, either. In an earlier post on Saturday, he said: “In my view, XRP has a strong possibility of reaching a new ATH by the end of this year.” Neither post included a detailed metho…
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Practically all participants in the currency market watched the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday evening. However, the market mainly focused on the FOMC's interest rate decision, the "dot plot" graph, and Jerome Powell's speech. In doing so, it completely overlooked another event that was perhaps less significant but still interesting. On Wednesday evening, the FOMC committee decided to reappoint all 11 presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks for a second term. What could be so important about this event? Quite a lot. Recall that in 2025, a full-blown war broke out between the Fed and Donald Trump. The President desperately demands a reduction in interest rates to lev…
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The Bank of England may implement another round of monetary policy easing in 2025, following the Federal Reserve's lead. However, this will mark the fourth rate cut for the BoE this year (the FOMC has reduced rates three times). It is worth noting that at the beginning of the year, Andrew Bailey repeatedly stated that the central bank planned four rate cuts, so there is little left to fulfill this "plan." The British central bank could have cut rates at its last meeting in early November. However, the "hawks" prevailed in the vote, 5-4. Market participants expected more "hawks" to vote on the MPC, so immediately after the November meeting, expectations of a December rate …
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Many market participants viewed the week as an important test for the dollar. Essentially, it was a test. However, it did not hinge solely on the Federal Reserve meeting and the easily predictable interest rate decision. Instead, it was about the market's reaction itself. Recall that after the last two rounds of monetary policy easing, new downward waves followed. A downward wave in instruments like EUR/USD (or GBP/USD) means a strengthening of the U.S. currency. Therefore, if we had observed a new decline in both instruments on Wednesday and Thursday, it would have been clear that the market continues to play by its own rules. This time, however, demand for the U.S. doll…
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The best times for the European currency are ahead. Since 2008, the euro has depreciated against the US dollar and concluded this process only in 2022, briefly falling below the price parity. Thus, the decline of the euro lasted a long 14 years. During this period, the European currency lost about 1.5 times its value. While this may seem modest, it is significant given the 14-year duration. However, it is believed that the upward trend began in 2022 and could also last a decade. Consequently, the long-term prospects for the euro appear bright. As traders, we are more interested in short-term trends. Over the past five months, we have witnessed the construction of correcti…
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The British pound remains in a far more vulnerable position compared to the euro. If you compare any two charts of the euro and the pound over the past few months, you will see that the British pound has fallen more sharply than the euro. We will not discuss the reasons for this disparity now, as that is history. Instead, let's talk about the chances of the pound continuing to rise against the US dollar. In the euro currency outlook, I mentioned that the European Central Bank meeting should not be taken lightly. While it is possible that no significant decisions will be made and Christine Lagarde may refrain from issuing forecasts for 2026, the likelihood of a rate cut fo…
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The US dollar and upcoming US reports will be the market's primary focus. However, this time, significant events also take place in the EU and the UK. In most cases, the market trades the dollar, while the euro and pound remain spectators in the theater, but there are important events everywhere. The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate three times at the end of 2025, but demand for the currency has weakened only slightly in response. In my opinion, the market has not yet fully absorbed these three monetary policy easings, and it seems to have forgotten about the potential "shutdown" and its possible resumption in February 2026. Therefore, I believe that the news…
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The new week will be significant for traders of the EUR/USD pair. While the overall economic calendar is not packed with significant events, the market's focus will be on two reports capable of shaping the medium-term trend: the US NFP and the CPI growth report. Typically, these reports are not released in the same week. Nonfarm Payrolls are published at the beginning of each month, while inflation data comes about 14 days later. However, the 2025 shutdown has muddled the timelines. Due to the 40-day US government shutdown, the BLS is releasing statistics with delays. For instance, we'll only learn the October data on labor and inflation. Nonetheless, these reports hav…
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