Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12164 tópicos neste fórum
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Trade Review and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen None of the levels I identified were tested during the first half of the day. In the second half of the day, extremely important economic releases are expected: the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its core version, which excludes food and energy prices. In addition, weekly data on initial jobless claims in the United States will be published. The market is on hold ahead of the news. Investors and market participants around the world are closely watching the upcoming reports, as these data may have a significant impact on the future monetary policy strategy of the Federal Reserve. Inflation—especially the core measure—…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed, but overall it still remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025; however, the wave structure starting from July 1 has taken on a complex and extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional shape. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the construction of the upward trend segment is not complete, and its targets extend as far as the 2.5000 level. The series of waves a–b–c–d…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (lower chart), but over the past six months it has taken on a complex and extended form (upper chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any large corrective wave, since it clearly has a corrective rather than an impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that started on September 17 took the form of a five-wave pattern a–b–c–d–e and has been completed. The instrument is now in the process of forming a new upward wave sequence. Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Things have changed quite remarkably since the broadly optimistic morning session. As pointed out in this interesting report, there might have been some selection biases in the BLS construction of this CPI release, tilting the numbers to the downside. Accuracy issues for data releases may hurt confidence prospects for Public data going forward. With the next CPI report expected on January 13, traders will want to see if major revisions to today's number will actually affect the Rate Cut expectations. Gold tested a new All-time high $4,400 before falling sharply, Stock markets are making new lows and Bonds are selling off. These flows don't inspire much confidence. …
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The 50/50 joint venture between Trilogy Metals (TSX, NYSE-A: TMQ) and South32 (ASX, LSE, JSE: S32) — sees 2026 as a pivotal year for the development of the Ambler mining district of northwestern Alaska. On Wednesday, Trilogy announced that Ambler Metals, the joint venture, recently approved a $35 million work program next year aimed at advancing the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects (UKMP), which include two copper-rich deposits (Arctic and Bornite) situated within an approximate 1,900 sq.-km land package. Exploration activities in 2026 will primarily focus on the Arctic deposit, including geotechnical and condemnation drilling to support mine design, infrastructure pl…
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XRP’s weekly chart has entered a technical zone that has repeatedly acted as a turning point in recent years. A recent analysis shared on the social media platform X highlights a recurring relationship between XRP’s price behavior and its 50-week simple moving average, a long-term trend indicator closely watched by traders. Instead of focusing on XRP’s short-term volatility, which has been bearish, the analysis zeroes in on how extended periods below this moving average have coincided with the end of downside phases and the beginning of rally expansions. The 50-Week SMA And Why It Matters For XRP Cycles Technical analysis of XRP’s price action on the weekly candlestick…
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Ontario and Canada’s federal government signed an agreement deal that aims to curb duplicate reviews and advance long-planned infrastructure and projects such as those in the province’s metals-rich Ring of Fire region. The deal will bring a “one project, one review” approach to major infrastructure initiatives in Canada’s most populous province, the federal government said Thursday in a statement. It will ensure that both levels of government “can adopt the most effective assessment process on a case-by-case basis – either by relying on Ontario’s process or by implementing a coordinated federal-provincial approach,” Ottawa said. Under the deal, Ontario and Canada …
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Reports have circulated across social channels this week after a prominent XRP commentator warned critics that they may be underestimating the token’s long-term role in finance. According to a post on X by user UnknowDLT, XRP’s place in global payment rails was “planned more than a decade ago,” and the token could one day become “the most valuable asset in the world,” a claim that has stirred both debate and disbelief. Community Voice Turns Loud Supporters in the XRP community have long argued that market prices miss bigger shifts. Based on reports from prominent community accounts, followers say short-term trading noise hides structural moves that could lift demand fo…
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In a critical moment for global finance, Visa now settles some payments in the USDC stablecoin on the Solana blockchain, expanding beyond its earlier Ethereum pilots and pushing stablecoins into mainstream finance. The company already operates at a pace of approximately $3.5 billion annually for stablecoin settlement volume, so this is no longer a small experiment. It joins a wider shift in which banks, card networks, and even J.P. Morgan are moving real financial activity onto public blockchains during a period of growing on-chain finance. For people like me who have been monitoring Solana’s evolution and the steady mainstreaming of stablecoins for Years, it’s clear thi…
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Dogecoin (DOGE) is approaching a sensitive phase as weakening investor demand, stalled ETF inflows, and growing sell-side pressure converge near a key price area. Related Reading: XRP Risks Double-Top Crash Toward $0.40, Peter Brandt Warns Once driven largely by retail enthusiasm, the meme coin is now trading closer to levels where a significant share of holders last acquired their tokens, raising questions about downside risk if confidence continues to erode. At the same time, isolated whale accumulation and long-term cost-basis data suggest the market is approaching a zone that could define the next major move. Dogecoin ETF Inflows Stall as Sentiment Softens One …
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Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 18 Market flows took a strongly positive tone following a CPI report that delivered a massive miss—2.7% vs. 3.1% expected. However, the initial euphoria stalled as economists dove into the details, uncovering significant adjustments by the BLS that cast doubt on the data's validity. The doubts triggered a pump-and-dump looking action across asset classes. Gold briefly breached its record highs before correcting sharply, and stocks followed a similar trajectory: a wonderful open erased by mean-reverting flows around the mid-session bell. …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken a notable step in reshaping how banks under its supervision can engage with crypto, reversing guidance introduced in 2023 that had sharply limited such activities. The decision reflects a broader reassessment inside the central bank about how regulation should adapt to financial innovation, especially as digital assets continue to intersect with traditional banking infrastructure. Under the earlier framework, uninsured state-chartered banks were required to follow the same constraints as federally insured institutions in order to remain under Federal Reserve supervision. That approach effectively barred some crypto banks from accessin…
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With public and government attention shifting to critical minerals, energy transition metals and specialty commodities, and retail investors all-in on rampant gold and silver, here’s a reminder of where the bulk of investments in global mining and metals goes. From 2000 to 2023, metals and mining revenues grew by $1.7 trillion, a jump of roughly 75%, affording the industry a 70% slice of the overall materials business which also includes plastics, pulp, and building materials. As a whole, materials represent some 7% of the global GDP. However, battery and other metals associated with decarbonisation – even when lumping in bellwether copper – hardly makes up 15% …
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The USD/JPY pair has traded within a broad range of 154.50 to 157.00 over the past three weeks, bouncing alternately between the upper and lower boundaries. Looking at the weekly chart, it becomes evident that traders are uncertain about the direction of price movement. Upward impulses are followed by downward movements, and vice versa. The contradictory outcomes of the December FOMC meeting have not helped traders, neither bulls nor bears. Ahead of this meeting, the USD/JPY pair approached the upper boundary of the aforementioned price range but fell to the lower boundary after the verdict was announced, marking a low of 154.40. However, in this price area, sellers took …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The European Central Bank's (ECB) upward revisions to inflation and GDP forecasts, amidst a slowdown in U.S. CPI, allow the EUR/USD pair to continue its rally. When the market does not move in the expected direction, it can make a sharp turn the opposite way. The ECB meeting and the U.S. inflation report provided the euro with additional advantages and invited the EUR/USD pair to rise. U.S. consumer prices slowed more than expected, while the ECB raised its inflation and GDP forecasts. What better reason could there be to sell the dollar and buy the regional currency? Unfortunately, traders made this decision with some delay. The ECB expects inflation in the eurozone to r…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's value against a basket of currencies, was struggling to build on the moderate gains seen the previous day. After the release of disappointing U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, Wednesday's gains were completely erased by downward pressure. This data will play a crucial role in determining the next steps the Federal Reserve will take regarding interest rates. Despite the Fed's cautious outlook, amid clear signs of a weakening U.S. labor market, traders are pricing in the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2026. Additionally, there are rumors that the new Fed Chair will adopt a dovish monetary policy a…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The data released on Thursday showed a slowdown in U.S. inflation. All components of the report were in the red zone, falling short of forecasted levels. On one hand, this is an important—one could say pivotal—moment for the EUR/USD pair (as well as for other dollar pairs). Now, representatives of the "dovish camp" at the Federal Reserve have additional arguments to support their position. A weak CPI is a strong card for the "doves" amid a cooling U.S. labor market, a declining ISM manufacturing index, stagnant retail sales, and weaker consumer activity. All these factors contribute to the case for further Fed rate cuts. However, there is one major "but" regarding inflati…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On December 18, the European Central Bank concluded its final meeting of the year, albeit a week later than the Federal Reserve. As expected by market participants, no significant decisions were made. All three interest rates (refinancing, deposit, and lending) remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. The ECB's accompanying statement emphasized the resilience of the European economy. The 2025 growth forecast was revised upward to 1.4% year-on-year. While such growth rates cannot be deemed high, they are stable, which the ECB likely finds satisfactory. The statement also noted weaknesses in the manufacturing sector (particularly in Germany), while concurrently h…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
On Thursday, the Bank of England held its last meeting of the year and made not just an expected decision, but a justified one. It is worth noting that some market participants were skeptical about the fourth round of monetary policy easing in 2026, but all doubts were dispelled after the inflation report was released on Wednesday. It turned out that core inflation slowed from 3.4% year-on-year to 3.2%, while headline inflation fell from 3.6% to 3.2%. Frankly, I did not expect inflation to decline so rapidly. Although it remains well short of the target mark, five consecutive months without acceleration are already a trend. Thus, by Wednesday morning, it became clear that…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Ethereum is facing renewed selling pressure as the broader market struggles with fear, uncertainty, and growing bearish expectations. After weeks of weakness, many analysts are now openly calling for a prolonged bear market stretching into 2026, arguing that Ethereum remains below key structural levels and lacks strong momentum. Bulls are attempting to defend the $2,800 mark, a level that has become critical for maintaining short-term confidence, but price action continues to reflect hesitation rather than conviction. Volatility remains elevated, and market sentiment is dominated by caution rather than optimism. Against this fragile backdrop, on-chain data reveals a no…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
XRP Ledger operators are staring down a familiar kind of “deadline drama” on Thursday, after one community tracker warned that a large chunk of XRPL servers are about to get amendment blocked, basically pushed to the sidelines until they upgrade. “In about ~10 hours 418 (!!) out of 999 XRPL servers will go DOWN as they become amendment blocked!” wrote X user Krippenreiter, adding that amendment-blocked rippled servers can’t “determine the validity of a ledger,” “submit transactions,” “process transactions,” or “participate in the consensus process.” Will This Impact The XRP Ledger? That sounds catastrophic if you’ve never watched XRPL governance do its thing. But the i…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Bitcoin price attempted to start a fresh increase but failed at $89,500. BTC is now struggling below $86,500 and might continue to move down. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $86,500 zone. The price is trading below $86,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $87,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $85,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price attempted a fresh recovery wave above $88,000 and $88,500. BTC tested the $89,500 resistance zone and reacted to the downside. There was a sharp decline b…
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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M The GBP/USD currency pair began Thursday in decline, but after the Bank of England's meeting and its decision to lower the key interest rate by 0.25%, the British pound shifted into an upward trend. Illogical? At first glance, yes. However, the market had already understood the British central bank's intentions following the November inflation report. It became clear at that time that a new round of monetary policy easing would follow. Thus, this decision had been priced in "in advance," and we can say the same as we often do after almost every central bank meeting—do not rush to conclusions. It is essential to give the market time to settle and…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The EUR/USD currency pair traded with relatively low volatility on Thursday. Overall, this week can be summarized as follows: expectations were not met. We anticipated that the strong fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop, important reports, and global events would lead the pair out of its six-month flat trend. However, that did not occur. There weren't even any interesting movements, trend shifts, or reinforcement of the current trends. The most significant events elicited emotional spikes in the market, but as seen in the illustration above, the pair is trading roughly where it began this week. Thus, it has been a continuous disappointment. The European Central Bank me…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD currency pair has been trading more actively than the EUR/USD over the past two days. However, it has not shown any particularly interesting movements, which can be seen across almost any time frame. Most traders were likely hoping for more volatile, trend-driven movements this week, but objective reality has dashed those hopes once again. Nevertheless, several important points should not be overlooked and offer an optimistic outlook for the future. For us, optimism now comes from the realization of the forecast we have been discussing throughout 2025. We believe nothing has fundamentally changed for the U.S. dollar globally over the past six months. Therefore…
Last reply by Ben Graham,
