Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12122 tópicos neste fórum
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Today, only the Australian dollar and the euro were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I traded the Japanese yen using the Momentum strategy. As the data showed, German producer prices were unchanged compared with the previous month, which put slight pressure on the EUR/USD pair in the first half of the day. The impact of this factor on the currency market was limited, as traders continue to bet on a slowdown in price pressures in the region. The lack of growth in German producer prices may indicate easing inflation in the eurozone, which in turn could influence ECB decisions. The pound also reacted with only a slight decline to weak UK retail sales data, which kee…
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Asia Market Wrap - BoJ Hikes Rates, Nikkei Rises 1% Most Read: Bank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100 Japan's stock market rose significantly on Friday, with the main Nikkei index climbing more than 1% to reach a level of 49,629. This rally occurred after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years and warned that more increases are likely on the way. Investors were also in a good mood because of a strong performance by US technology stocks the night before. The central bank's decision had a major impact on the bond market as well. For the first time since 200…
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On the last trading day of the week, the GBP/USD pair is halting yesterday's correction from the area around 1.3440. However, it is still struggling to attract significant buying interest. The pound is being supported by the Bank of England's recently adopted measures, which have boosted expectations regarding its future policy. Despite the split vote (5–4), the 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.75% is being perceived by the market as a signal of a dovish approach, especially after the unexpected drop in inflation earlier this week. These factors reduce pressure on monetary policy expectations in the UK and trigger a positive reaction from investors. At the same time, U.S. dat…
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Is crypto in a bear market? Is the four-year cycle broken? Will Bitcoin reclaim $100,000 before year-end? Could 2026 bring about a supercycle? These are all questions being asked by traders and investors as we close out the year, following an ongoing period of bearish price action throughout the crypto market. Following surprisingly bullish US CPI data yesterday, coupled with an interest rate cut from the Bank of England, investors responded cautiously optimistically, with Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart svg path { stroke-width: 0.65 !important; } .cwp-coin-widget-container .cwp-graph-container.positive svg path:nth-of-type(2) { stroke: #008868 !important; } .cwp-coi…
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Bitcoin’s options market has a new obsession: Christmas week. In a post Thursday, energy-sector managing partner David Eng argued the next eight days (December 19 through December 26) could define the near-term cycle for BTC, not because of a macro headline or some sudden ETF stampede, but because a large chunk of dealer gamma exposure is scheduled to roll off the board in two shots. At press time, bitcoin traded around $86,928, after swinging between roughly $84,461 and $89,230 intraday. Eng’s framing is blunt and very “options people”: the market is being mechanically pinned, and the pin has an expiry date The Hidden Force Holding Back Bitcoin Price? “The narrative is…
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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair once again bounced off the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718, posted a modest rise, and then returned to this level. I had expected a more confident move during the day given the news background. However, traders found nothing particularly important for themselves in the ECB and Bank of England meetings, nor in the U.S. inflation report. Today, another rebound from the 1.1718 level would again work in favor of the European currency and a modest rise toward the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802. A firm consolidation of the pair below 1.1718 would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656. The wav…
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday bounced off the support level of 1.3352–1.3362, rose to the 1.3425 level, rebounded from it, and began a new decline toward 1.3352–1.3362. Another rebound of quotes from this zone would again work in favor of the pound and lead to some growth toward the 1.3425 and 1.3470 levels. A firm break below the zone would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 1.3294 and 1.3240 levels. The wave picture turned "bullish" several weeks ago, but this week it shifted back to "bearish." The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak by only a few points, while the most recent downward wave managed to b…
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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctu…
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The Bank of Japan raised its key interest rate this morning from 0.50% to 0.75%, marking the highest level in 30 years. As a result, the yield on 10-year government bonds crossed 2% for the first time since 1999, leading to a sell-off in bonds. The Bank of Japan adopted a relatively hawkish tone, indicating its readiness to continue tightening monetary policy as part of normalization efforts. Meanwhile, data released just before the BoJ meeting showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November indicated that annual inflation remained nearly unchanged from October, decreasing from +3.0% to +2.9% for the core index, while the base index (excluding fresh food) remain…
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Solana (SOL) is currently one of the poorest performers among the top ten largest cryptocurrencies in the market, experiencing a sharp 13% decline over the past week. Bearish Patterns Emerge For Solana This downturn comes as the cryptocurrency has broken below the critical support level of $120, which had acted as a pivotal floor since the start of the month and previously prevented further drops. The situation appears even more dire for investors with bullish sentiments, as recent data from CoinGecko indicates that Solana has retraced nearly 60% from its all-time high of $293, reached back in January of this year. Year-to-date, the token has experienced a significan…
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Yesterday, the euro barely reacted to news that the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for the fourth meeting in a row. The deposit rate remained at 2%—exactly as many economists had forecast. Policymakers gave no guidance on their next steps, emphasizing that decisions will be made meeting by meeting, based on incoming data. They also said they are inclined to announce the end of the current interest-rate cutting cycle, which has lasted for more than a year and a half. The ECB's decision was also accompanied by new forecasts pointing to more confident economic growth and a return of inflation to 2% in 2028. These projections inspire cautious optimism, s…
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The British pound would seemingly have been expected to collapse after the Bank of England cut interest rates yesterday. Instead, it rose—and quite solidly against the dollar. On Thursday, the committee voted 5–4 to lower interest rates to a nearly three-year low of 3.75%. It is clear that the British regulator's direct hints that the pace and scale of future rate cuts are now in question influenced market sentiment. Yesterday's rate cut had already been priced in, but the policymakers' cautious stance had not. Governor Andrew Bailey warned of limited room for maneuver in 2026. The Monetary Policy Committee will have to make decisions in a more challenging environment. T…
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Following a recent interview with Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, where he shared his forecasts—details of which I covered yesterday—there is another significant interview with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino that deserves attention. According to Ardoino, the AI bubble is the primary risk for Bitcoin in 2026. Given the strong correlation of BTC with traditional capital markets, this makes Bitcoin vulnerable to shocks from a potential burst in the AI bubble. The company believes that if sentiments around AI turn negative in 2026, it will trigger turmoil in the US stock market, resulting in Bitcoin dropping alongside it. However, regarding optimistic views, sharp corrections …
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The S&P 500 has successfully navigated the recent release of US inflation data, despite not capitalizing on the slowdown in consumer prices to 2.7% and the core index to 2.6%. Investors remain skeptical of the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics following the prolonged government shutdown. However, according to Wells Fargo, the disinflationary trend is ongoing, even if the latest statistics may exaggerate the extent of the CPI decline. The US economy maintains a remarkable balance of resilience. It is not overheating enough to trigger rising inflation and provoke a tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Consequently, a Goldilocks environment has…
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Gold and silver prices have remained near record highs after lower-than-expected inflation in the U.S. supported forecasts for further interest rate cuts. Platinum has approached its 17-year peak. On Thursday, the spot price of gold reached approximately $4372 per ounce, signaling growth for the second consecutive week. According to data published on Thursday, the core Consumer Price Index in the U.S. increased at its slowest pace since early 2021, confirming the need for lowering borrowing costs—a factor that favors the price rise of non-yielding precious metals. Against this backdrop, investors are once again focusing on signals from the Federal Reserve regarding futur…
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The Bank of Japan (BOJ) finally pulled the trigger, and as usual, the Bitcoin angle shows up in market conversations. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 0.75%, a level Japan hasn’t seen since 1995. That sounds dramatic, but the size of the hike is probably what matters more than the FUD headlines some news outlets are making. Pricewise, Bitcoin hasn’t really changed its behavior. It’s still moving inside a kind of wide $84,000 to $94,000 range. Holders and believers continue to defend the lower end, and that area lines up with several key moving averages. On the upside, the $88,000–$90,000 zone remains the level to beat. Apart from the US regulatory news …
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Yesterday, stock indices closed in positive territory. The S&P 500 increased by 0.79%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.38%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.14%. Asian stock markets followed Wall Street's lead, as the slowdown in US inflation reinforced the need for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The euphoria that swept through US exchanges extended to the Asian region, where investors viewed the prospect of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed with optimism. Technology companies became the focal point, as their shares are traditionally sensitive to changes in interest rates. Lower rates translate to a reduced cost of capita…
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World Liberty Financial has put forward a proposal to tap a portion of its token treasury to grow USD1, the dollar-pegged stablecoin linked with the project. The plan would free up about $120 million to back listings, liquidity programs and partner incentives. Treasury Move Could Add Firepower To USD1 Based on reports, WLFI’s proposal would unlock roughly 5% of its unlocked treasury — a fund slice drawn from a multi-billion dollar reserve — for strategic use to expand USD1’s reach. The move has split the community, with some holders supporting rapid expansion and others warning about tokenomics and governance risks. According to the stablecoin’s custodial partners, USD…
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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThe price test at 155.79 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by 40 pips. Today, the Japanese yen weakened against the U.S. dollar after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates but provided no clear guidance on the timeline for future monetary policy tightening. Although the central bank, as expected, raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995, the focus is now on Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference. The market expects more definitive statements from Ueda regardin…
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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the price at 1.3365 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 40 pips. The pound increased yesterday after the Bank of England lowered interest rates but warned that the speed and scale of future cuts are now in question. This decision, made against a backdrop of conflicting economic signals, left markets in uncertainty and increased volatility in the British currency. On one hand, the rate cut is intended to stimulate economic activity by easing the burden of borrowing for businesse…
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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the EuroThe test of the price at 1.1717 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1717 triggered Buy Scenario #2, as the MACD was already in oversold territory, driving the pair up by more than 40 pips. Yesterday, the European Central Bank decided not to change interest rates, clearly signaling the end of the easing phase of monetary policy. The upward revision of forecasts and positive changes in policymakers' plans indicate greater resilience in the eurozone economy than previously thought. However, …
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The cryptocurrency market continues to swing back and forth. Yesterday, Bitcoin's sharp rise to around $89,800 was quickly retraced, sending it to approximately $84,700. Ethereum is also trading below $3,000. This surge in volatility was the market's reaction to yesterday's news that U.S. inflation slowed more than expected. This allows the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates and increase the volume of its bond-buying program to stimulate the economy and revitalize the labor market. The more cheap money available in the market, the better Bitcoin will feel. However, it is essential to remember that cryptocurrencies are a high-risk market. High volatility,…
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Key takeaways BoJ policy supportive for equities: The BoJ’s expected 25bp hike to 0.75% and guidance for a gradual, data-dependent tightening path into 2026 signal policy normalization without destabilising financial conditions, reducing downside risks for Japanese equities. Stronger JPY no longer a headwind: Domestic-oriented Nikkei 225 stocks are outperforming export-heavy names, indicating that modest JPY strength and improving consumer confidence can coexist with a sustained equity uptrend. Technical backdrop constructive: The Nikkei 225 is showing signs of a minor bullish reversal after a shallow pullback, with momentum indicators improving and key supports holdin…
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The euro and British pound rose sharply against the U.S. dollar; however, dollar buyers took advantage of attractive prices and quickly restored market equilibrium. Yesterday, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, clearly indicating that the current cycle of monetary policy easing has concluded. This step, as expected by most analysts, marked the end of a period in which the ECB actively stimulated the economy by lowering interest rates. Now that inflation is stabilizing and economic growth is showing signs of resilience, the ECB is shifting to a more conservative strategy. The Bank of England lowered interest rates to 3.75%, warning that further steps …
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As the market volatility continues, Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hold its short-lived momentum and reclaim a key resistance level for the second time this week. Some market watchers have affirmed that the flagship crypto may continue to have a disappointing end-of-year rally and potentially reach new lows before the pain is over. New Lows Before A 2026 Recovery? On Thursday, Bitcoin attempted to break past a crucial level after surging 2.9% from its daily opening. The cryptocurrency has been unable to reclaim $89,000-$90,000 area since the start-of-week correction, which sent the price to a two-week low of $85,145. Notably, the flagship crypto retested the crucial resis…
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