Radar do Mercado
Resumo diário completo com análise técnica e fundamental dos mercados globais, incluindo movimentos em Forex, ações, metais e decisões macroeconômicas relevantes.
12389 tópicos neste fórum
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The AUD/JPY exchange rate is facing difficulties in further growth as the Japanese yen gains support amid possible intervention measures from Japanese authorities. Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, stated on Monday that she has the authority to respond to excessive fluctuations in the yen. These comments followed remarks from Atsushi Mimura, head of currency operations in Japan, who emphasized that officials would take appropriate measures to combat excessive exchange rate volatility and expressed concern about one-sided, sharp market movements. The yen also received moderate support following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's statement that public debt remains…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For the second consecutive day, the Japanese yen has strengthened against the weakening US dollar. However, the likelihood of a significant weakening of the yen seems unlikely amidst the overall decline of the US dollar. The tightening intervention policy proposed by Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, continues to support the Japanese currency. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions could further enhance the Japanese yen's status as a safe-haven asset, limiting the recovery of the USD/JPY pair. At the same time, the Bank of Japan has left the door open to tightening monetary policy. This development sharply contrasts with expectations of Federal Reserve in…
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The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to waiting for the next batch of economic data before making any decisions on monetary policy. The next meeting of the US central bank is scheduled for January 28, and by that time, new reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will be released. This trio of reports will determine the FOMC's decision on interest rates. In my view, the Fed may opt for a fourth consecutive easing in January, which would undoubtedly weigh on the US dollar. The November labor market data do not allow for conclusions about recovery. The unemployment rate is rising, and the number of jobs created is too low to halt the increase in unemploym…
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In recent weeks, "hawkish" expectations regarding the European Central Bank's monetary policy for 2026 have been building in the market. Where did these expectations come from, considering the ECB recently concluded its rate-cutting cycle? In early December, one of the governors, Isabel Schnabel, stated that she did not rule out a rate hike next year. As soon as the market heard such a statement, it began to anticipate a tightening of monetary policy. Is this approach valid? In my opinion, no. Schnabel merely allowed for the possibility of a rate hike under certain circumstances. It's no secret that any central bank is prepared to use its tools if economic circumstances c…
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Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $90,000 level, and market confidence continues to deteriorate as an increasing number of analysts begin to call for a prolonged bear market. Sentiment has turned decisively cautious, with investors reassessing risk exposure and preparing for a potentially challenging period ahead. Despite multiple attempts to stabilize, price action remains compressed, offering little confirmation that bullish momentum is ready to return. According to an analysis by XWIN Research Japan, the current market phase is best described as a range-bound consolidation following a high-level correction, with momentum conditionally tilted to the downside. While…
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The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, has hit a two-month high amid the greenback's overall weakening. For the first time since September this year, the AUD/USD pair tested the 67 level, rising more than 100 pips over two days. Notably, the pair is rising not only amid the decline in the US dollar index but also amid the strengthening of the Aussie. For example, the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting provided additional support for the Aussie, driving it higher across the market. To briefly recap, the RBA, following its last meeting of the year, kept all monetary policy parameters unchanged and adopted a "hawkish" tone, for the first time al…
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History is repeating itself. Just like in 2017, during the first year of Trump's presidency, the US dollar weakened against major world currencies. Investors operated under the principle of "what the president wants, God wants," and sold the "greenback." In 2018, it entered as a clear outsider; however, the "bulls" on the USD index managed to recover a significant portion of the losses. The greenback closed that year in positive territory. Can it replicate the feat of eight years ago? Annual Dynamics of the US Dollar Forex is confident that the US dollar's structural weaknesses remain and continue to work against it. These include a decline in institutional authority, a w…
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The publication of the Reserve Bank of Australia's December 9 meeting minutes has bolstered bulls' confidence. The Monetary Policy Council, commenting on trends in the global economy, noted that while yields on US government bonds are declining, they are rising in some countries, including Australia. Council members stated that the increase in short-term bond yields in Australia aligned with market participants' expectations of both tighter monetary policy and higher short-term inflation. The minutes turned out to be even more hawkish than the RBA's accompanying statement after the meeting. The emphasis was placed on the exacerbation of inflationary pressures, including f…
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Cardano (ADA) is closing out 2025 caught between muted price action and a growing debate about where real value may emerge next within its ecosystem. While ADA continues to trade under pressure near the mid-$0.30 range, founder Charles Hoskinson has shifted attention away from short-term price movements toward longer-term structural developments, particularly within Cardano’s decentralized finance and security roadmap. The contrast between weak market sentiment and expanding ecosystem narratives has become one of the defining features of Cardano’s current phase. ADA Price Weakness Reflects Broader Caution Cardano (ADA) remains in a consolidation pattern after slipp…
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XRP has slipped below a level that, for much of the past year, acted like a structural anchor for the chart: the $1.95 area. Crypto analyst Guy on the Earth (@guyontheearth) argued that XRP has now closed under that zone on a higher timeframe, calling out the two-week chart specifically. “For the first time in 13 months XRP has closed under this monthly support at $1.95 on the 2 week chart,” he wrote. “It’s the second time on the weekly this has happened with April tariffs being the first.” The 2-Weekly Close Is Crucial For XRP From there, his analysis went straight to the downside implication. “The technical target of this break down is 90c,” he added. “Do with this inf…
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Solana (SOL) has entered the final stretch of 2025 under sustained pressure, caught between a weakening price structure and signs of steady institutional interest. Related Reading: Dogecoin: Why This One Price Level Is Drawing All the Attention Following a sharp 39% decline in the fourth quarter, SOL is struggling to regain momentum, trading in the low-$120 range as traders focus on whether key support levels can be sustained. The contrast between falling network activity and continued inflows into investment products has left the market divided on what comes next. While ETF-linked demand suggests confidence in Solana’s longer-term relevance, near-term price action rem…
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For the second consecutive day, the NZD/USD pair has shown strong buying interest, setting a new monthly high. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the new Federal Reserve Chair may abandon the "dot plot" strategy—an approach that signals gradual interest rate cuts. He also highlighted the possibility of changes to inflation policy and the Fed's communication framework. This comes amid expectations that the incoming Fed leadership will adopt a very dovish monetary policy stance and cut interest rates regardless of current economic data. Such expectations are limiting the U.S. dollar's upside, despite its recent rebound from the lowest levels since early Oc…
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The Bitcoin price could experience major swings this Friday as billions of dollars in options are set to expire. A crypto market expert has warned that the scale of this event could trigger “something big,” potentially affecting both volatility and the actions of retail and institutional investors. Bitcoin Price Braces For Major Moves This Friday On Monday, crypto analyst NoLimit signaled that this upcoming Friday could be a historic moment for Bitcoin. According to the expert, over $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options are scheduled to expire on December 26, marking the largest options expiry the market has ever seen. The analyst has stated that anyone with crypto hol…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD looks fairly clear, albeit quite complex. There is no talk of canceling the bullish trend that began in January 2025, but the wave structure starting from July 1 has taken on a complex and extended form. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which developed in a very non-standard way. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, leaving no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline. In my opinion, the construction of the bullish trend is not finished, and its targets may extend as far as the 25th level. The series of waves a–b–c–d–e looks complete; therefore, over t…
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Essential Trading Rules Rules for The Game Surviving and thriving in the forex or any global market requires much more than chart reading or catching the next big move. The traders who last are the ones who follow a consistent set of rules built around discipline, risk control, and smart decision-making. Below is a guide to the most important trading principles every trader should adopt. Rules for The Game Start With a Reputable Broker Your trading experience depends heavily on the broker you choose. Tight, consistent spreads and reliable liquidity allow you to enter and exit the market efficiently. Anyone can open a position but closing a trade at a fair…
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Protecting retirement savings is a priority for anyone approaching or already enjoying retirement, especially in a climate where financial scams continue to rise. Market volatility, inflation, and growing national debt have created the perfect environment for fraudsters who prey on uncertainty and fear. Understanding the risks and choosing safer, more transparent strategies like diversifying with physical precious metals can help protect your nest egg for the long term. The Growing Threat of Retirement Scams and Financial Fraud Retirees and those nearing retirement are increasingly targeted by scammers because they often have substantial savings and are more cautious abou…
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On Tuesday during the North American session, gold partially gave up some of its intraday gains as the U.S. dollar showed a moderate pullback following mixed U.S. economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $4,457, slightly below the new all-time high of $4,497. Nevertheless, the decline in the precious metal remains limited, as ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support strong demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026 are providing additional support to gold prices. The latest stage of growth also reflects year-end portfolio rebalancing as markets enter a prolonged holiday pe…
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Bitcoin’s recent price action has started to wear on people. After a strong start to the year and a run that pushed above $100,000 and briefly touched $125,000, the market has drifted into something closer to a low-volatility grind. On the 1000x podcast, ProCap’s Jeff Park argued that this shift in “market structure” is not a minor detail. In his view, it is the central reason Bitcoin has struggled to reassert momentum, even as gold and other commodities have pushed to fresh highs. Bitcoin Needs Volatility Park’s thesis is straightforward: Bitcoin’s upside story historically leans on volatility. If volatility compresses and stays compressed, Bitcoin loses one of the feat…
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Christmas Trading can be both uneventful and chaotic – some traders rush to exit their long-held positions to take a stress-free holiday rest. The absence of counteracting parties leads to more erratic flows, as seen in this morning’s Stock Market action. But away from the traditional Christmas Stock Market trading, Metals trade around global exchanges on a different set of fundamentals. And it seems that they are the most beneficent victims of Santa's flow. Just today, Gold came very close to $4,500 before retracting somewhat, but allowed Silver, Platinum, and Palladium to reach multi-year highs (or set new records in the case of Silver). Ranging from 0.70% for the Ye…
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The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance zone 9, which produced another buy signal. Let me remind you that it all started earlier with imbalances 3 and 8, which were also bullish. The pair formed two buy signals, and traders had an excellent opportunity to enter in continuation of the bullish trend at the most favorable price. This long position is currently showing a profit of about 260 points. Traders can decide for themselves what to do next: wait for more profit or close the trade with a solid gain. Personally, I am expecting further growth from the European currency. Over recent months, I have repeatedly drawn traders' attention to an obvious fact: the…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance 11 and resumed its upward movement, exactly as I expected. This is already the second reaction to bullish imbalance 11; the first buy signal appeared back last week. In fact, I do not take such signals into account on their own. If an imbalance has already been worked off (no matter to what extent), then in the future I am interested only in signals combined with liquidity grabs. This time, there was no sweep of "bearish" liquidity—but what difference does that make if a few days earlier another bullish signal was formed within the same bullish imbalance 11? Thus, traders can continue to hold long positions open, as …
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
For GBP/USD, the wave count continues to indicate the formation of an upward segment of the trend (bottom chart), but over the past six months it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, since it clearly has a corrective rather than an impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 took the form of a five-wave pattern a–b–c–d–e and has been completed. The instrument is now in the stage of forming a new upward wave sequence. Of course, any wave structure can become more complex an…
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Trade review and trading advice for the Japanese yen The test of the 155.95 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Today, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said in an interview that the country has room to take decisive measures against the weakening of the Japanese yen and excessive exchange-rate fluctuations. All of this led to a decline in the USD/JPY pair, which continued during the European session. Ms. Katayama's statement, which came like a bolt from the blue, instantly overturned investors' perception…
Last reply by Ben Graham, -
Trade review and trading advice for the British pound The test of the 1.3494 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair almost reached the target level around 1.3520. Amid the absence of any UK economic data, the British pound continued to follow the upward trend. The lack of fundamental drivers left the initiative in the hands of technical traders, who apparently decided to take advantage of dollar weakness and low liquidity ahead of important U.S. data. In the second half of the day, reports will be released on changes i…
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US inflation reportedly cooled, and the Fed already cut rates three times, but Bitcoin price keeps stalling every time it pokes near $90,000, just like it did yesterday, the 22nd of December. Watching the order books on Binance and Coinbase during Monday’s European session, it was clear that $90,000 wasn’t just a psychological wall or a large sell wall; it was being refreshed every time the price ticked up, suggesting sophisticated ‘limit’ selling rather than a retail panic. On the surface, this looks like a bullish macro backdrop, but under the hood, the inflation data looks messy, and Bitcoin’s own liquidity looks tired. …
Last reply by Ben Graham,
